Chances are that 95% of their nukes will fail to launch\explode in Russia\hit random targets.
That's wishful thinking, sorry. The only bright side is that nuclear stockpiles (on both sides) aren't nearly as big anymore as they have been, thanks to various nuclear disarmament agreements over the years. As a result, a full scale nuclear war now will not completely wipe out humanity.
But that's about the best thing we can say about out it. I'm trying to decide whether I prefer to move to some remote location immediately, before it's too late. Or simply stay with my friends and family and die with them, if the situation escalates.
I mean, it *is* optimistic thinking, but based on everything else we know about the Russian military I don't think its wrong.
Like all military equipment nukes require a lot of maintenance without which they will fail to work properly.
However unlike other military equipment having a ton of nukes is kind of useless. Saying you have a ton of nukes is great for your countries ego, and proving that you have working nukes is huge, but the difference between actually having 6k nukes and just telling everyone you have 6k nukes while only having 300 nukes is functionally 0.
Given that its entirely possible that Putin skimped on the nuke budget because again, he can't actually use them while he can use planes/tanks/infantry/boats just fine. The only real reason to think they have 6k is because you actually trust the Russian goverment to be telling the truth about the state of their military which uh... don't?
(I will note that according to wikipedia Russia only has 1600 nukes actually ready to fire, a number which presumably still relies on Russia telling the truth, so its likely the actual number is far lower).
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Of course it doesn't really matter if Russia only has 100 active nukes. If Putin decided to go out killing as many people as they could and they all hit their targets he could probably kill a billion people with that, so the difference between 100 and 1000 is meaningless.