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[martinuzz]

Sounds like the holodomor all over again...

Ukraine needs soldiers, not gear.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

Ukrainian genocide may also refer to War crimes during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

[Flying Dice]

Given how many of their ground vehicles appear to be poorly maintained Soviet-era retrofits I wouldn't be surprised if the same was true of their air force.

The Soviet-era retrofits are the part of their gear that's working. It is the much-vaunted newer stuff that's falling apart or simply missing.

That's sort of my point, though -- both the stuff that's working and the stuff that's breaking down is Soviet-era retrofits specifically because they have extremely low numbers of all of their modern equipment.

Not that it appears to be doing them much good when they do, if the report that was issued yesterday by the Ukrainian Air Force is accurate. They're claiming that late on 3/1 they sortied a pair of MiG-29s against a pair of Russian Su-35s over Kyiv and that the result of the dogfight was both Su-35s downed in exchange for one of their two MiGs. If that's even remotely accurate the fact that they're getting favorable exchanges using forty year old fighters against modern ones is pretty wild. That's on the verge of being some Ace Combat shit.

[Madman198237]

Most US equipment, in vehicles anyway, is "Soviet-era". The Abrams is from the 80s and started development in the 70s, the F-22 program started in the 90s, the vast majority of Air Force aircraft are from the 70s or 80s, the M-16 is fifty years old, etc.

The problem with the Russians is definitely not just in equipment.


This war has been absolutely baffling. Russia inherited its military equipment and doctrine from the Soviets (duh), and the Soviets knew that in any "Cold War gone hot" scenario they'd be lucky to be able to fly a flag by the second day of fighting, let alone any planes, since NATO (the US, really) loves its air superiority. So the Soviets invested heavily in SHORAD/surface-to-air defenses. But where the heck have these systems gone that they're getting shredded by drone strikes?

[Strongpoint]

Given how many of their ground vehicles appear to be poorly maintained Soviet-era retrofits I wouldn't be surprised if the same was true of their air force.

The Soviet-era retrofits are the part of their gear that's working. It is the much-vaunted newer stuff that's falling apart or simply missing.

That's sort of my point, though -- both the stuff that's working and the stuff that's breaking down is Soviet-era retrofits specifically because they have extremely low numbers of all of their modern equipment.

Not that it appears to be doing them much good when they do, if the report that was issued yesterday by the Ukrainian Air Force is accurate. They're claiming that late on 3/1 they sortied a pair of MiG-29s against a pair of Russian Su-35s over Kyiv and that the result of the dogfight was both Su-35s downed in exchange for one of their two MiGs. If that's even remotely accurate the fact that they're getting favorable exchanges using forty year old fighters against modern ones is pretty wild. That's on the verge of being some Ace Combat shit.

I am taking those stories with a mountain of salt. Ghost of Kyiv myth becomes increasingly absurd...

Saying this, the specs of airframes are secondary. Electronics inside the aircraft and quality of air to air missiles are way more important and Ukraine may be not as much behind as it seems.

[Lord Shonus]

In real life, you can't just chuck equipment in a warehouse and pull it out next time you need it. You have to maintain it - rotate the fluids, replace rubber parts as they become brittle, lot of little tasks like that. This costs money - lots of money - and doesn't really boost your prestiege the way a body kit for a Su-27 super-advanced stealth fighter or hot new battle tank or shiny new SAM system does. Equally important, any cash that does go into maintenance is really easy to skim off if people aren't watching closely.

So a lot of the equipment in inventory is very poorly maintaned, because they spent all their cash on flash.


There are legitimate tactical reasons for some of the surprising actions - the SHORAD systems getting hit by drones aren't the kind that can fire on the move, and keep getting hit while moving, when they're vulnerable. But there's a lot of "corruption inside a web of corruption" problems exacerbated by Russia caring more about looking like a state-of-the-art military power than they did about actually being one.

The basic design of the equipment, especially the older stuff, is fine. The Ukranians are using it to good effect.

[Loud Whispers]

This is both hilarious, sad and comfy at the same time. Ukrainian man offers to tow stranded Russian tank back to Russia, Russian soldiers comment they have no idea where the hell they are going or how the war is proceeding or why they are even there

[askovdk]

The Ukrainian delegations should start all negotiations with this, just to make the the stance towards obsolete world views clear:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHwVBirqD2s  (Elton John - I'm Still Standing)

(The lyrics are pretty accurate, - especially if they pull through this.)

[martinuzz]

Moldavia and Georgia are now also are applying for EU membership.

Some footage of captured Russians: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x47eNyXmPDo

Looks like the grunts really had no idea what they were invading into.

EDIT: Russian police arrested five children, between age 7 and 11, for bringing flowers to the Ukrainian embassy while holding 'no war' signs. They were arrested together with their mothers. The children were shouted at, and the mothers were told that their children would be taken away from them by child protective services. They have been released from custody, but both mothers and children will have to appear in court soon.

[da_nang]

Word has it that a Russian Major General has been killed, and the General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine has announced a counteroffensive.

Still waiting for confirmation from the media.

Fifteen Ukrainian soldiers were also awarded Hero of Ukraine yesterday evening.

[Kassire]

Idk. My two cents on this issue is that the cause for Putin to invade Ukraine is primarily based on resources, human resources especially. Ethnic Russian fertility rates are super low, lower than they had in WW2. While traditionally separatist inclined ethnic groups like Chechens and Tatars have very high fertility rates. An independent Tatarstan would effectively cut Russia in half, which is no good for Russia.

Ukraine, conveniently for Putin has a lot of ethnic Russians to counterbalance demographic issues and there are plenty of Ukrainians that might be otherwise assimilated as has been done for centuries before (Why do you think the Donbas is ethnically Russian, ethnic cleansing of course!).

Obviously, there are natural resources and ideological reasons (though these fall more under making Russia stronger because Russia is intrinsically better). Though I think Putin to be realpolitik enough to overlook ideology, and it's not that Russia is in some disastrous critical need of farmland or natural gas; the latter being a resource that will be more difficult to sell as Europe increasingly becomes carbon neutral.

Most arguments talking about NATO are dogshit. There was no agreement with Gorbachev about NATO not expanding eastward, he even said so: "The agreement on a final settlement with Germany said that no new military structures would be created in the eastern part of the country; no additional troops would be deployed; no weapons of mass destruction would be placed there. It has been obeyed all these years." The reunification of Germany posed a security concern to the USSR and it was hashed out. As for expansion, there was nothing said that NATO could not expand eastward, because that idea made no sense. In 1989 there were no countries to expand NATO into, they were all non-aligned, neutral, or part of the Warsaw pact. Nobody really thought that the USSR was going to collapse, and tbh not even America wanted the USSR to collapse because of the unrest and security concerns that might develop out of the mess. Bush was known to be very pro-CIS, because of the shitshow that could have developed. Regardless, no agreements were broken.

With Russian belligerency by invading Georgia, Ukraine, and intervening in Moldova, the desire to join NATO makes sense, because these countries don't want to be invaded. Two nuclear powers can never fight in direct combat, so the defensive pact offered by NATO essentially extends this MAD protection to all NATO members. As for claims about Ethnic Russians, there are ethnic Russians that were created in Ukraine due to centuries of ethnic cleansing. Most wouldn't extend this hospitality to the treatment of Native Americans. Also, in Crimea, there was no history of violent separatism. Russia rolled in with tanks and held a vote (that was somewhat rigged), and these people who were just conquered said yes to joining Russia. This is the Russian tactic: roll in with tanks, THEN hold sham elections/referendums to incorporate that territory. All these ideas of violent separatism are just Russian manufactured. No diplomatic measures were undertaken because they were bogus, to begin with. Fortunately, the Russian military has been completely incompetent throughout this campaign, let's just hope Kyiv doesn't end up like Grozny.

As a completely unbiased Biden fan, I think he's made all the correct decisions in this crisis, mostly because there really isn't much more he can do. USA #1, democracy is the best shit since butter on bread.

[martinuzz]

Our military intelligence service has thwarted a cyberattack by Russian cyber unit 74455.
The hack targeted routers of small businesses and private persons, incorporating the routers into a botnet to do bad stuff.
The intelligence service is still in the process of informing those who were infected, and have confiscated some routers for investigation.

So yeah, be aware. You mom or your bakery on the street corner might be unknowingly participating in cyberwarfare.

[Flying Dice]

Most US equipment, in vehicles anyway, is "Soviet-era". The Abrams is from the 80s and started development in the 70s, the F-22 program started in the 90s, the vast majority of Air Force aircraft are from the 70s or 80s, the M-16 is fifty years old, etc.

The problem with the Russians is definitely not just in equipment.

Right, but the U.S. hasn't had major economic/corruption problems interfering with maintaining that equipment and also hasn't been trying to maintain Cold War levels of materiel with drastically fewer resources than it had at the time. I'm saying "Soviet" rather than "Cold War" because this is specifically a problem with Russia LARPing as the USSR despite not having the resources to maintain or field most of what they've had in storage.

The F-16s, for example, that are still flying are probably mostly Block 50/52 C/Ds, not As. Those are post-Desert Storm production, not literal 1980s airframes with a new avionics package stuck in and newer missiles on the pylons.

I am taking those stories with a mountain of salt. Ghost of Kyiv myth becomes increasingly absurd...

Saying this, the specs of airframes are secondary. Electronics inside the aircraft and quality of air to air missiles are way more important and Ukraine may be not as much behind as it seems.

Ukrainian reports seem to typically come with least attempts to provide documentary footage and evidence, as well as admitting to setbacks when they happen. Y'know, as opposed to Russia state media saying everything going swimmingly. Definitely might want to take care with the Ghost of Kyov memeing, almost everyone I've seen doing it is a blatant Kremlin bot repeating the "Nazi Ukraine" party line or openly admitting to liking imperialistic ambitions on Putin's part, and you don't come across like that to me.

Sort of related to what I said above, I think a big factor is that Ukraine hasn't tried to maintain a massive arsenal beyond their means. Just having all of their equipment in good shape, run by well-trained crews, and supplemented with modern ordinance from abroad seems to have been the formula for success here.

e: Specifically regarding the "Ghost of Kyiv" copypasta: It's overt astroturf. This is why:

1. The format is near-perfect. It's a single line with a catchy name already attached, which makes it easy to spin off iterative variants, which in turn makes it very attractive to third-party users who want to spam memes without thinking about the implications of what they're doing.

2. The message is exactly aligned with Moscow's goals: it dismisses news of Ukrainian successes by flooding any post about them with disinformation and noise that implies all Ukrainian successes are (and here's an unsurprising season 2 recurring appearance) "fake news". It also drowns out any attempt to discuss or engage with said news. You can't have a conversation if 3/5ths of the comments are copypasta spam.

3. It emerged instantly on a wide range of platforms. This is not how memes naturally develop. Normal dissemination would start with the originator on one platform, spread on that platform, and start making leaps to other platforms where it would re-spread. This takes at minimum days, more often weeks or months in the wild. The "ghost of Kyiv" shit went from "does not exist" to "everywhere" in less than a day. If you check google search analytics the phrase did not exist prior to 2/24, peaked mid-day 2/25 or early 2/26, and abruptly fell off. Real memes don't flare up that quickly or die off so rapidly. If you look back at other memes: Ugandan Knuckles took 2-4 weeks to peak, amongus took 5-6 months, dicks out for harambe took 2-3 months, &c. and those have much broader appeal. That's a pattern suggestive of a deliberate campaign to disseminate it.

This is the sort of thing that Putin is good at.

[scriver]

What is the Ghost of Kyiv stuff?

[Strongpoint]

What is the Ghost of Kyiv stuff?

An alleged Ukrainian ace who shot down many Russian aircrafts

[Starver]

Whether a real person with innate skill+luck or a constructed persona to anthropomorphise the general tidings of war, both sides might wish to spin the Ghost for a rationale of their own. Either an inspiring mythology or an "if it weren't for that one supervillain" vibe.

I could imagine there being an Air Ace (or two, or three[1]) who managed to do beat the odds sufficiently, but the support required to get every pilot into the air (no self-supporting Stark-types with a technological suitcase of flying armour ready to use on a whim) means there's going to be a lot more known about who did what than just a mysterious figure turning up in a fully-armed warbird out of nowhere to battle evil(/the 'good guys').

In the current white-heat of conflict, I don't expect any solid information on all this to be made public. Perhaps 'the' Ghost will be mentioned (in passing, and not with the epithet) as one of any posthumous commendations that might be made by the Ukrainians, or some captured bailed-out airman will have a "battered and bruised, this is the main Nazi swine who threatened our peaceful operation" treatment on Russian channels, but the dust will have to settle first before we could properly hope to reconstruct the Truth, or believe any such revelations or rumours that we currently might get.


[1] Interchangably, in reality, or perhaps in sequence. As the luck no longer held out for each in turn.