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[martinuzz]

German and Polish police warn that at train stations, people posing as volunteers are trying to lure woman and children to sell them into sex work. Some arrests have been made.

Women and children travelling alone: If you are taken by sex traffickers, try to escape. Stab and kill your captors if you have to, and go to the authorities. The law will protect you. You will not go to prison for killing or wounding a kidnapper. It is your human right to escape by all means at your disposal. The threat of rape is a valid ground for self-defense.
 

[Strongpoint]

I'm not sure anyone thinks they can fully stop China from trying to position itself as the primary trade partner with Russia while sanctions last, but expressing a clear and immediate opposition to their support of Russia also affects the disposition of other states that might be on the fence with regards to the issue, especially if things escalate. It might also reduce the extent to which China is willing to back Russia, as it increases the percieved cost of more concrete forms of support.

I do find myself wondering how various countries are actually doing militarily after this though. Russia's armed forces seem to have been rotting through for some time now, and it's making me wonder how many other countries have the same issue. India and China both have huge armies, but if they're anything like Russia is for quality then I'm not sure they would stand up to much in a modern conflict.

The problems plaguing Russia's military are quite possibly unique to Russia.  Mostmother countries aren't trying to maintain a US-level military on an Italy-level GDP in a government that was literally founded on the notion of stealimg any money that's not being watched like a hawk.

China in particular has more than adequate economy to support their military spending, and all evidence is that they seal rather harshly with people trying to steal from the governmemt. It is very likely that Russia's issues here are prompting a review, and we'll probably know pretty quick if anybody's beem stealing from China's military. Because China will shoot them.

Yeah, I wouldn't expect that the Chinese Army is inefficient. It isn't battle-tested so one can never know but it should be far better organized than Russian. I think in this new world the only thing that will keep Russian independence is their nukes, China is able to steamroll right to Ukrainian border otherwise

[martinuzz]

The Russian ambassador to Poland reports that Poland has frozen the bank accounts of the Russian embassy.
Poland confirms this, saying they did so because the embassy was using the bank account for money laundry and funding terrorism.

[brewer bob]

A Russian warship has been destroyed at the port of occupied Berdyansk.

Source: BBC

[Lord Shonus]

An Alligator-class landing ship seems to have been struck by some kind of weapon (possibly a Scarab-B SRBM) and suffered a large number of secondary explosions and very heavy fires. This indicates that it was loaded with ammunition, fuel, and possibly other supplies (of which it can carry up to 1000 tons) for the Russian forces in the southern part of the country. Two other landing ships nearby were allegedly damaged and withdrew from the port.

It is not yet certain that the ship is a loss - the fires might yet be brought under control. In the short term, that doesn't matter all that much - losing those supplies is almost certainly a devastating blow to Russia's southern flank. If it was still fully loaded, that's the equivalent of losing at least two hundred supply trucks.

[Loud Whispers]

Yeah, I wouldn't expect that the Chinese Army is inefficient. It isn't battle-tested so one can never know but it should be far better organized than Russian. I think in this new world the only thing that will keep Russian independence is their nukes, China is able to steamroll right to Ukrainian border otherwise

One key difference is that Xi Jinping was aware that his military was corrupt & useless, and in wargames, junior officers would let their bosses win because to defeat their boss in a wargame would be committing career suicide. So Xi Jinping set up a new wargame format which would be held at the national level instead of regional, with the opposing team fighting with American doctrines & answering to Xi Jinping alone. The results were hilarious, with 18 out of 19 regional commands losing to the American-style Chinese team.

Two Chinese armored brigades clashed in a week-long training exercise at the Zhurihe Training Base in Inner Mongolia in 2015. Both brigades were equipped with identical armored vehicles and weapons. The Blue opposing forces brigade (OPFOR), however, was organized and fought in the fashion of a United States brigade combat team.

The Red friendly force was crushed. “Within an hour we were hit with airstrikes, enemy satellite reconnaissance, and cyberattacks … Frankly, I never imagined it would be this hard,” said Wang Ziqiang, the armored brigade commander of the Red force. Wang’s political commissar Liu Haitao was caught on camera sobbing after the defeat. In a documentary aired on state television days before the 19th Party Congress in October, Liu said that his unit was initially very confident of victory over the Blue team, which was formerly a sister unit. “But over the course of seven days, we were beaten … we lost because we didn’t meet realistic combat standards when training our troops,” he said.

Now knowing you suck is very different from knowing how not to suck, but it at the very least means Xi Jinping doesn't believe his capabilities to far exceed what they are

[Strongpoint]

An Alligator-class landing ship seems to have been struck by some kind of weapon (possibly a Scarab-B SRBM) and suffered a large number of secondary explosions and very heavy fires. This indicates that it was loaded with ammunition, fuel, and possibly other supplies (of which it can carry up to 1000 tons) for the Russian forces in the southern part of the country. Two other landing ships nearby were allegedly damaged and withdrew from the port.

It is not yet certain that the ship is a loss - the fires might yet be brought under control. In the short term, that doesn't matter all that much - losing those supplies is almost certainly a devastating blow to Russia's southern flank. If it was still fully loaded, that's the equivalent of losing at least two hundred supply trucks.

I am sure that it is a loss - https://youtu.be/u4jsr8jFuw8

______________

Meanwhile Russia opened it's stock market! Well, "opened": short sales are banned, foreigners are blocked from selling stocks and spending $10 billions of reserves to buy shares

[martinuzz]

Russia swears revenge against Poland for extraditing 45 diplomats (accused of espionage and sabotage).
According to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it is "a deliberate move towards the destruction of bilateral relations, which our Polish 'partners' have been systematically dismantling for a long time now".

They added a warning. "Russia will not leave this enemy attack unanswered, and our answer will hurt Polish provocateurs and make them think hard".

[Lord Shonus]

An Alligator-class landing ship seems to have been struck by some kind of weapon (possibly a Scarab-B SRBM) and suffered a large number of secondary explosions and very heavy fires. This indicates that it was loaded with ammunition, fuel, and possibly other supplies (of which it can carry up to 1000 tons) for the Russian forces in the southern part of the country. Two other landing ships nearby were allegedly damaged and withdrew from the port.

It is not yet certain that the ship is a loss - the fires might yet be brought under control. In the short term, that doesn't matter all that much - losing those supplies is almost certainly a devastating blow to Russia's southern flank. If it was still fully loaded, that's the equivalent of losing at least two hundred supply trucks.

I am sure that it is a loss - https://youtu.be/u4jsr8jFuw8

______________

Meanwhile Russia opened it's stock market! Well, "opened": short sales are banned, foreigners are blocked from selling stocks and spending $10 billions of reserves to buy shares

That video was not shared at the time I posted that. I'm now wondering if one of the smaller landing ships is also a loss - the one in the background has visible fire and an awful lot of black smoke pouring out.

[Some Grue]

They added a warning. "Russia will not leave this enemy attack unanswered, and our answer will hurt Polish provocateurs and make them think hard".

I wonder what they can do. Sabotage our meat export to them? They already did. Stop buying our apples? They did it already. Send more refugees to Poland-Belarus border? Yes, they can. Not that our government give a f* about those people (excluding Ukrainian refugees, those are more privileged).

I cannot see how they cannot harm us now.

[None]

By the language of 'provocateurs' and given that Poland ejected the diplomats for 'espionage and sabotage,' I'd speculate they'd go after the Polish embassy and/or diplomats if they still have staff in Russia. Hopefully just extradition if they're still there- didn't they pull out a week or two back?

[Loud Whispers]

I cannot see how they cannot harm us now.

Do they do the whole thing where they assassinate people in your cities using chemical weapons & radiological weapons?

[Vector]

I wish this thread would stop doing what it keeps doing. Taking a piece of news, rarely from an unbiased source these days, and then wildly speculating on the worst possible interpretation.
Russians capture a nuclear plant - they want to cause a nuclear disaster. Russians send some people across to their side of the border - these people are about to be sold to sexual slavery and harvested for body parts. Russians are shelling residential areas in a besieged city - they want to genocide the Ukrainians. Russians capture a microbiology lab - they're going to release deadly pathogens. Russians are arresting dissenters - these people will be disappeared. Russians offer surrender - they will execute PoWs. Russians destroy a nuclear lab - they're going to start selling plutonium to Iran or make dirty bombs.
What's the point? The war is criminal enough as is, in a wholly mundane and seen-it-before way. No need to invent new ways for it to be despicable. All it does is feed into pent-up anger, until one evening you start drinking and vile thoughts come out.

I just wanted to say that I really dig this post. This is the good stuff.

[Strongpoint]

I wish this thread would stop doing what it keeps doing. Taking a piece of news, rarely from an unbiased source these days, and then wildly speculating on the worst possible interpretation.
Russians capture a nuclear plant - they want to cause a nuclear disaster. Russians send some people across to their side of the border - these people are about to be sold to sexual slavery and harvested for body parts. Russians are shelling residential areas in a besieged city - they want to genocide the Ukrainians. Russians capture a microbiology lab - they're going to release deadly pathogens. Russians are arresting dissenters - these people will be disappeared. Russians offer surrender - they will execute PoWs. Russians destroy a nuclear lab - they're going to start selling plutonium to Iran or make dirty bombs.
What's the point? The war is criminal enough as is, in a wholly mundane and seen-it-before way. No need to invent new ways for it to be despicable. All it does is feed into pent-up anger, until one evening you start drinking and vile thoughts come out.

I just wanted to say that I really dig this post. This is the good stuff.

It isn't good stuff. Russian have no moral lows and proved that many times.

[Random_Dragon]

Basically, at this point the Russian military has done enough stupid shit that the bar has basically been stamped into the floor. You want people to stop assuming they'll break out an axe and start chopping up the floorboards so the bar can be nudged even lower, that's no longer the observer's problem at this point.