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[TranquilRiverGiant]

 
I walked to this keep and there is a bunch of fighting. Several are dead. I want to figure out who the bad guys are but it seems like there's just a chain of people killing each other and everybody else is sort of standing there like "This is a battle! I am afraid!". Are there any game mechanics / dfhacks to decipher the situation?

This does seem to be deeper than just a bug, as the previous ruler of this civ was just killed and another just took his place...

[rico6822]

When you are away from creatures who hold grievances against eachother they kill themselves much more slowly via offscreen history generation. Current agression system is bugged to make them enter open combat on every opportunity when they decide they are likely to win.

Since goblins and humans don't like eachother too much it resulted in slaughter.

It is also possible that they are not in any treaties of non-agression at all. They were simply fighting like that for days but until the battle is finished than if you encounter them they will start fighting as if they just began and everyone is alive. I encountered once a night troll on fast travel screen being very close to a goblin patrol for ridiculous amount of time. When I let goblins ambush me the night troll attacked them but no one was injured on start.

[TranquilRiverGiant]

Interesting note, given your explanation:

I added [NATURAL_SKILL:DISCIPLINE:2] to the human raws and it generated a world where not only this wasn't a problem, but humans no longer cohabitated with goblins in their major towns.

[Rumrusher]

ok looking at that screen it seems like a bunch of goblins stood next to each other and got super mad and started throwing hands which spark into a deathmatch, and given where you are by the time you reach the door they would have already got angry from being so bunch up together.