Ok. I'm going to go through this page by page and answer anything that jumps out at me, but night speculation or a final decision on who to vote will have to wait, I have stuff on today.
I voyeured
Webadict. They were
not hit with any abilities. They
certainly were not poisoned or anything interesting like that, which lets me rule out one line of play scum could have been making.
The reasoning behind this action was complex, but basically I wanted to check a rather specific case in which there was an unexpectedly webadict-free mafia, and they used a prime or poison on him safe in the knowledge that keeping him around for a bit would make them safer, or that he wouldn't really be believed the next day. I realised my voyeur role isn't that powerful when used on a likely town target like EJ without a tracker operating, and the best I could do otherwise would have been to see if Web would steal an igniting ability from Max... but he admitted to that anyhow as it turned out, and Web looked like a likely elimination, so I wasn't unduly concerned about missing that outcome.
Early mechanical analysis: From the claims, I think we have to conclude multi-tasking mafia. Or possibly some insanely brazen plays like Web claiming to have Max's ability but reserving the option of never using it... Huh. My money's on some kind of multi-tasking though, or at the very least passive weirdness like Max's claim.
My ability is pro-Town, and there's no argument you can make to counter that. You have to take NJW2000's word for it, because it's really fucking obvious.
If you have the ability to steal an ignite, it's not pro-Town unless we know all the mafia have full arson abilities. And we
don't know if that's the case or not. Or am I missing something here?
@EuchreJack: what? Feel free not to answer that.
@Toony: pretty sure this is town EJ. This is just a gut or soulread or whatever, but I'll eat my hat if he's managed to keep up this demeanour as mafia.
@Anyone trying to mechanically solve this game: I'm not 100% certain, but I suspect mafia have something weird and powerful like a "your target's target" passive or a multitask. There's a revive ability, so we can probably assume mafia has something pretty messed up. Look at the last game: Roden, Tric and I spent all of D3 trying and failing to puzzle out mechanical nonsense, while Toony ensured an ML and Vector instantly zeroed in on the one scum player remaining. I'm going to be voting on reads enhanced by mechanical info, not mechanical info or reads used to choose between mechanically equal choices.
On voting Vector: this makes a weird kind of sense, in that if they're lying about the poison voting them is good, and if they're telling the truth it's not a meaningful ML. On the other hand, if Vector is town, which is really, really, really likely, this puts us at 6 players at the end of the day, possibly with one primed, making tomorrow quite possible LyLo. I
think we're likely to hit LyLo in any case even if we ML today. So we should
probably elim today, but yeah, I guess instead of a no-elimination we always vote Vector?
On Max:For a bit I thought Max was mechanically cleared by this, and it does certainly make him look town, but I'd be wary of too many absolute assumptions. I don't think reviving Toony hurts the mafia more than a bussing play, so we have to ask if Max is capable of a gambit that's as counterintuitive as bussing a partner to elimination. I'm pretty sure he is.
Revive, by the way, is not a perfectly town-favouring power, just in case someone wants to make the argument Webadict constantly makes about their power. I doubt Max himself would argue that though, that at least would be a bit beneath him.
This is annoying. I really wanted to believe he was locktown, because that spares me the effort of actually trying to read the guy. Going to have to look into this a lot more, many of his posts are kinda recontextualised now.
My gut is saying Webadict is probably the best elimination. He's been key to both the MLs, and also copied an ignite ability. I'm not 100% on this, it's been a weird game. More later, please refrain from hammering while I'm gone.
Author
Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (Game Over): Lessons Of Mob Mentality (Read 111850 times)