Ok then. That's like 100 posts in 24 hours, which is crazy, but never mind. Let's figure this out. Also there have been like 4 ninjas in the last ten minutes, I guess some people have a wpm of 180.
First off: mechanical analysis.
I am 100% sure Web used their investigative-copycat ability on Vector and that Tric inspected Vector. This doesn't clear them, for the simple reason that multitasking mafia is highly plausible and has been in half the games so far, especially when accompanied by a killing power with as many drawbacks as arson (chance of priming the next day's lynch, slow to remove power roles, etc). I am 100% certain somebody primed Vector.
Vector is mostly cleared, as they're not going to self-prime, and FoU has been shown to be reluctant to allow mafia to end up self-targeting with the kill in weird "your target's target becomes X" or redirection scenarios. I'm 99% sure they're town, so I'm 99% sure they used their protect one-shot on me as they wouldn't lie about that.
That leaves Max, Toony and Roden with mechanically unconfirmed night actions or, in Toony's case, inactions. That and the very strong possibility of multitasking means it's very unlikely that we'll get a justified elimination target on the strength of the claims available alone. Nonetheless, we did learn a lot after the night, so it's not all bad. Vector is cleared.
Tl;dr all we know for sure alignment-wise based on mechanical is that Vector is locktown. Time for thread analysis.
Positions seem to be shifting quite a bit today, it's getting pretty hard to follow. Yesterday, however, is much clearer.
I refuse to allow that everyone on the Tric elimination is town. So let's investigate that wagon.
I trust my read on Jack today. I read him correctly R3, and it was largely due to an unfortunate synchronicity with Roden that I misread him R2. This is town!Jack. I think Vector is town, as they were primed and nobody has come forth as an arsonist vig or whatever. Besides, I can kinda get their policy on Tric given the last round, even if I don't feel the same way. Pyschologically speaking, they were so certain in the knowledge Toony was mafia that they experienced Tric's doubts as madness.
That leaves Toony, Web, and Roden. The idea that both Toony and Web are scum again is not impossible, but the two of them arguing has been half the posts today, so that's a pretty marginal possibility. They also seems quite big on the idea of eliminating one another? Roden's dubious because of their lack of scumhunting D1 and their weird takes D2, but their vote on Tric is largely NAI to me because it came at a point where it didn't really matter, so the Tric wagon isn't relevant to my read on Roden. To be honest, I don't get why he'd do that hammer as either alignment, but hey, I guess it's one of those Just Roden Things I'm slowly learning not to flip out about. Still someone I'm worried about, but he didn't orchestrate the ML. That leaves (at least?) one of Toony and Web.
Onto the claims. Web's night action was weird as Vector didn't look like they had an investigative ability, they looked like a doctor, but at least he's confirmed in it.
Toony's vengeful claim is nuts, but may be true. scum!Toony is very unlikely to try to push Web off him with that claim, because Web is a very experienced player and also won't back down in a game of chicken unless the rules of the game force him to. Then again, if that's what he banked on us thinking... WIFOM. End of the day, if we are inclined to believe it, that means toony is still kind of an attractive elimination, as he can just shoot someone, probably Web given the recent posts.
So both their claims/night actions make them good elimination candidates tonight: Web's claimed role is weird and at present pretty useless if true, Toony's claim makes eliminating him attractive.
Ok then. What can we say about their involvement in the Tric wagon? This is
crucial, as it involves information that is both universally reliable (i.e. written down in the thread) and concrete (caused the death of a player). This is probably what I'll vote on, unless I've missed something huge.
He starts off voting Tric for a bad case on Roden. Fair enough, I guess, this is how scumhunting goes. The vote remains on Tric.
At this point I engage Web in a bit of a furore, so he is understandably distracted. He also starts talking to Max.
He then gives the somewhat vague
TricMagic is a weird case for me. Initially I voted them because it was a safety vote for Town, where they tend to reject all information, but their play style is reductionist caution right now, which is super unhelpful in a different way. Their justifications need to start making sense from Tric's point of view, and Tric going after Toony and I isn't out of meta, but it's out of character for their current playstyle. I want to see Tric comment on NJW a bit more, though. If I were going to be safe, I'd swap to NJW, but it's totally not decided for me yet.
So Tric was exhibiting "reductionist caution", but going after Toony and Web. Their justifications didn't make sense "from their POV" - not sure if that refers to the justifications for their vote on Roden or Toony.
I mean, I wish I'd asked about this at the time, because I frankly don't really understand this. Whatever it is though, it doesn't seem to be a strong justification for a vote on Tric.
@Web, could you break down what this means a bit? Specifically which justifications you meant, and where their play exhibited caution?
Then according to the
last post Web did which really mentioned Tric, "TricMagic exists and hasn't done anything, which is weirdly not like Tric for a variety of reasons."
Like that's literally it.
tl;dr: Web never really presented a case on Tric D1, he just voted him early in the day and kept the vote on him the whole time. I need to see some explanation for the unusually brief pieces he wrote explaining his position on Tric before I come to a judgement. At present this looks to be neither a reasonable case nor a weak wagon vote, but just a vote he never really felt the need to explain fully. Questionable.
Toony's attacks on Tric have been worryingly weak at times. Take a look at
this post, claiming not to understand why Tric backed off Roden after Toony "picked" at them, and switching onto Web when Toony suggested it. This twists the truth.
In point of fact, Tric backed off Roden after like four people agreed his case was awful. This is an utterly normal response, and was very reasonable of him. Also, Tric switches onto Web
after Toony points out his vote is based on a misread, so probably just, you know, realised his mistake and wanted to vote Web because he suspected him. Easier to see in hindsight, but this raised a red flag for me at the time. Toony is pushing at Tric for bad reasons, and Tric is unlikely to successfully retaliate because he just voted Roden on a weak case.
Have a gander at
Toony's posts towards the end of D1. He repeatedly draws attention to Tric not revealing his role. This being scummy rests on the assumption that Tric cannot learn,
ever. Tric, like many of us here, makes questionable decisions sometimes, but one should assume he's capable of learning from the blunder people constantly reproach him about. It would have been reasonable to assume that Tric had a role he shouldn't reveal, in which case asking him why he hasn't revealed it is absolutely tempting fate as town. Because [
insert usual gripe about Tric claiming knight here].
Tric's early weak case, the two entirely reasonable times he moved his vote, and his not roleclaiming... seem to be the entire case Toony had on Tric. These are not good reasons to push a lynch on someone.
So... tentatively, I'd say Toony looks worse, and like a better vote. Subject to change, still need to go through today considering D1. The effort of which will probably kill me. Not in-game, just irl.
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Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (Game Over): Lessons Of Mob Mentality (Read 111606 times)