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Author Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (Game Over): Lessons Of Mob Mentality  (Read 110952 times)

TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1005 on: October 25, 2021, 02:03:19 pm »

Vector, what's your opinion, 1 mafia and mafia ally, or 2 mafia and mafia ally?
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1006 on: October 25, 2021, 02:05:43 pm »

Note that if it's 1 Mafia, Roden needs to go in case it's 2. If it's 2 Mafia, Roden needs to go cause he's the other. Either way Mafia is caught tomorrow.

Well, unless the team is Roden/Vector and I got messed with hard. Which I'm starting to think might be the case, what is the case on toony other than him being slippery?
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1007 on: October 25, 2021, 02:08:11 pm »

It's very unlikely this game is only one mafia and one ally.

If we have a Town Vigilante who can only kill if given orders by a Captain, I would humbly suggest Not Killing, as knowing our devious GM FallacyofUrist, pulling that string by a Mafia Captain might be the mafia's only NK.

Also, we should consider with 8 players that the mafia team might be more than 2 mafia.  Maybe not 3 full mafia, but probably a 3rd player that can win with mafia somehow.  We won't know until it is over.
There's no way it's 3 mafia. Even two mafia plus ally seems like too much.

This you?
Yes it is. That is what I said on D1 before seeing the nights and how this game has gone.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1008 on: October 25, 2021, 02:10:36 pm »

Note that if it's 1 Mafia, Roden needs to go in case it's 2. If it's 2 Mafia, Roden needs to go cause he's the other. Either way Mafia is caught tomorrow.

Well, unless the team is Roden/Vector and I got messed with hard. Which I'm starting to think might be the case, what is the case on toony other than him being slippery?
It could be that it's one mafia and two allies. This would explaining the balancing better and the amount of people lying.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1009 on: October 25, 2021, 02:24:00 pm »

Roden's action is still unconfirmable. I don't have any powers left, and he says it reflects the target's actions back at them? Rather than me, more likely he targeted you. Which still leaves a kill in NJW's hands.

If there is only 1 mafia, Roden/NJW tell the truth, web isn't killed. Roden/Toony tell the truth, your action doesn't fail. Toony/Roden tell the truth, your action couldn't fail.

In case both Toony and NJW tell the truth, Roden is lying and his partner is Vector or I. But web wouldn't have died. It makes no sense, therefore either Vector or I are Mafia, or Roden is, or it's NJW/Toony.(Which is silly)

Two allies would be annoying, yes. But note, this still makes Roden the most likely. And fits his posts better. He blocked you from reporting. Besides which, there is the issue of Roden's action being unconfirmable. Targeting me is the worst thing he could have done with that power as town.
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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1010 on: October 25, 2021, 02:29:20 pm »

-
Given my mechanical knowledge is highly incomplete, I'm not going to bother with a long reply to this. I don't think anyone has actually offered a convincing explanation of what did happen last night, or why the hell I'd be claiming to have deflected web if I were scum. Suffice to say, mafia could have no-killed, may have some kind of nonstandard kill or strongman, or all kinds of nonsense. As Toony just said, yeah, two allies and a mafia with a kill is another possible case.

Anyhow, looks like we're probably killing Toony. Why're you griping? :P


Well, unless the team is Roden/Vector and I got messed with hard. Which I'm starting to think might be the case, what is the case on toony other than him being slippery?
Hm... a worrying possibility. But that would require a redirection of your cop action you weren't told about, wouldn't it? Not impossible, but certainly a very marginal case.

As for the case on Toony, Vector mostly seems to be voting him because they think he was collaborating with Web in-thread. I think he's been enthusiastic for a dubious lynch and in bed with Roden, not to mention Vector's collaboration analysis is fairly convincing.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1011 on: October 25, 2021, 02:38:57 pm »

K, let's look at that then.

NJW: Deflected Web
TricMagic: Did nothing
Vector: Gave Watcher Invention to Roden.

Roden: Claimed to use Repel on me, making me target myself. (Dubious, as the closest I know is Mirror.)
Toony: Failed Result

What actually happened(possibilities): Roden used Repel on NJW. Toonyman kills Webadict.
OR Toony has a different role and redirected NJW(chance based), Roden killed Web.

Can you agree this is what would have happened NJW?
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1012 on: October 25, 2021, 02:42:53 pm »

Holy shit Tric, I've told you multiple times now that you're describing Repel wrong.
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1013 on: October 25, 2021, 02:44:58 pm »

It's baffling to me that I present a case that nobody can dispute and the only response from everyone is "idk you're mafia," like what?
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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1014 on: October 25, 2021, 02:46:08 pm »


Can you agree this is what would have happened NJW?
I mean, that would be very simple and make sense. But I was told that I performed my action. So the Repel would have to be unnoticeable somehow. FoU apparently usually tells people when their action fails or gets redirected.

This is one of the pathological things about my position today. I'm pretty genuinely lost when it comes to working out why my action was reported successful but was pretty obviously interfered with.


FallacyofUrist: Surely, people are not told if they've been redirected to an unexpected target?
By default, people are always aware of who they end up targeting, at least in my games. This has been the case even in my earliest attempts at mafia-GM-ing. A variant ability could change this, however.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1015 on: October 25, 2021, 02:47:05 pm »

Holy shit Tric, I've told you multiple times now that you're describing Repel wrong.

Ok, I'm pretty sure you told me it worked wrong when I described mirror too. WHAT DOES IT DO?
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1016 on: October 25, 2021, 02:52:06 pm »

At work so I can't make a long post until later tonight, but I already explained what Repel does.

Night 2, I used my Repel and prevented Tric from being able to interact with NJW. I actually misread it and thought I would be the reverse since I was trying to protect Tric, but it ultimately didn't matter.
It's essentially a one-way target-specific role block.
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1017 on: October 25, 2021, 02:53:42 pm »

There is one inarguable, undisputed truth that proves that I'm not lying here. Both Toony and NJW are claiming somebody screwed with their results, and it's 100% impossible for me to have somehow blocked both of them. We know for a fact that at least one of them has to be lying. And we know for a fact that I can't be a killer due to the Night 1 outcome.

Say the set up is 2 mafia + 1 ally. I target Web and Jail him, as ordered. This leaves my scum buddy free to perform the NK, and they know not to target Web because I let them know I'm Jailing him. Yet nobody dies.

Scenario 2. 1 mafia + 1 ally. I would have to have Multitasking as a passive in order to kill and follow my orders. I know I'm Jailing Web, so I would target somebody else. Yet, nobody dies.

Finally, why do I ever kill Web when Vector is confirmed to be aligned with Town due to Tric's Parity check? Why risk killing a potential ally? Why not endgame the town Night 1? Why not kill a Cop claim who might check me and out me as mafia?

Just look at the facts, and you know I can't be mafia. It has to be either NJW, Toony, or both of them, and town wins by voting there no matter what.

NJW
Reminder that NJW was not able to dispute this and didn't even try. Instead, he repeatedly tries to misrep me and my emotional state, twisting my aggressive play into some kind of attack on him. Yet, he can't disprove the facts of what I've said.

If this is indisputable then it has to mean that I'm town.
Tric, find the hole in my logic.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1018 on: October 25, 2021, 03:31:34 pm »

There is one inarguable, undisputed truth that proves that I'm not lying here. Both Toony and NJW are claiming somebody screwed with their results, and it's 100% impossible for me to have somehow blocked both of them. We know for a fact that at least one of them has to be lying. And we know for a fact that I can't be a killer due to the Night 1 outcome.

Say the set up is 2 mafia + 1 ally. I target Web and Jail him, as ordered. This leaves my scum buddy free to perform the NK, and they know not to target Web because I let them know I'm Jailing him. Yet nobody dies.

Scenario 2. 1 mafia + 1 ally. I would have to have Multitasking as a passive in order to kill and follow my orders. I know I'm Jailing Web, so I would target somebody else. Yet, nobody dies.

Finally, why do I ever kill Web when Vector is confirmed to be aligned with Town due to Tric's Parity check? Why risk killing a potential ally? Why not endgame the town Night 1? Why not kill a Cop claim who might check me and out me as mafia?

Just look at the facts, and you know I can't be mafia. It has to be either NJW, Toony, or both of them, and town wins by voting there no matter what.

NJW
Reminder that NJW was not able to dispute this and didn't even try. Instead, he repeatedly tries to misrep me and my emotional state, twisting my aggressive play into some kind of attack on him. Yet, he can't disprove the facts of what I've said.

If this is indisputable then it has to mean that I'm town.
Tric, find the hole in my logic.
Take That!
At work so I can't make a long post until later tonight, but I already explained what Repel does.

Night 2, I used my Repel and prevented Tric from being able to interact with NJW. I actually misread it and thought I would be the reverse since I was trying to protect Tric, but it ultimately didn't matter.
It's essentially a one-way target-specific role block.

https://youtu.be/YDcvkQ3_Ibc

One way and target specific. Which would work on multiple targets. Right now, you can Deny interactions with a player. But this doesn't stop them from making their own actions, it's one way. As a result, Toony's Action Failed. Now, who here has that ability?

In this case, it's you, or Toony is lying. However, NJW targeted Web.  In order for a kill to go through, he would need to be blocked. But he hasn't claimed such a thing. So, under these conditions, how did web die?

Let's look at the order of claims.

TricMagic, Did Nothing.[See this as me being Mafia if you like for the purpose of deduction.]
NJW: Deflection: Web to Toony.
Addendum: I wasn't told I was roleblocked. Could have been a redirect, that's pretty interfering.
Why is Web dead and not me then? Your claim doesn't make sense. FoU stated at the end of D2 that redirects are told to the person being redirected.

Roden: Ordered to Target Tric by Web. Claims Repel, preventing others from interacting with me. Note this does not reflect actions, simply causes them to fail. [Hypothosis: By nature, it's priority is higher than any other currently active. Only the Commuter would be higher.]

ToonyMan: Attempted to check NJW, Action Failed.

Vector: Gave Watcher Invention to Roden.[Roden claims this before Vector. Only applicable in a Vector/Roden team, otherwise truth.]

No actions currently known could bypass NJW's Reflection, but for Strogman that NJW brought up early on before any other claims were made. But for argument, he also said Roden would interfered. But there wasn't an Action Failed, so this isn't true if they aren't the same alignment.

In this case, Toony has to be lying about his role. But here is the kicker. Toony was the first person to really claim today. Not later. Not even after info had popped up. This would be the long con, and he'd need to have a second ability.
Under what conditions could Toony kill Web? Not alone unless it is a Strongman case. Together, it would be Roden. And here is the first nail awaiting your coffin.

Moving on, me. The exact same applies, except I've been lying about Parity from the beginning. This is one possibility. I'm actually very likely to have been able to kill webadict in that case. Nail here happens to be this is literally the first time I've heard of Parity, it's not something I'd come up with on my own. In this case, it's more likely to be true. Toony could search for town guns, while I searched for Mafia Allies. But then, why would web die? The answer is, he wouldn't. We would have just stuck to cover till we found our ally, or shot Vector instead, securing our victory. There are currently no circumstances where this sequence of events is false. No one protected Vector last night. Therefore, it is FALSE by default, for it didn't happen.

Next, NJW. In this case, he simply killed Web alone. However, Toony's ability wouldn't have failed. This would imply an extra power to him.
However, this is the second nail. Roden, you, would have just the ability to manage that. And your claim time fits too. No one is left who can confrim your action against me, and Vector had already given you the invention, so you knew what he did. One can't take the chance your single gun is noticed.

Vector next. Not much here, my ability would have needed to be messed with, or he's a godfather. The latter is unlikely given my one-shot nature. So in any team he's mafia, so are you. This, however, is unlikely.

Roden: Interference, brainwashing, redirection, repulsion, roleblocking, JOAT. You handed NJW the gun he killed with, with him none the wiser. You did not roleblock the first night. This is a far out theory however, as you'd need to be solo. Though having a secondary action  might help with that, it's unlikely.
Funnily enough, you are well suited to negating the protection on web, or blocking abilities and results, hence reducing the info town has.


... 1 shot, 1 guarantee of victory. But only 1 mafia and 1 mafia ally. Or, 2 mafia allies and 1 mafia. Or perhaps, an even-day factional kill to balance the setup a bit more. Either way, all roads lead to Ro(me)den.


The issue is this entire setup is a mess. Toony would need to be strongarm and acting alone for you not to be mafia of some stripe. In order for any case where you are town, mafia must be acting alone, not together with allies. That's the only result that makes sense. And if Mafia is acting alone, then they'd die tomorrow either way. And in every case where Mafia are 2, you are the other. The only other case is me being mafia.
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Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1019 on: October 25, 2021, 03:56:50 pm »

I would like to note that we don't have a 2P scumteam unless Toony is on it, because otherwise they would have quickhammered and won already.

(I already knew this wasn't the case because Tric is town and I don't think that was a staged fight between Roden and NJW, but still: here's some harder evidence)

Time to vote, guys. Get rid of him.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

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