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Author Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (Game Over): Lessons Of Mob Mentality  (Read 110864 times)

TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #975 on: October 24, 2021, 03:02:51 pm »

Give Vote to Vector

Ima try this. As the only confirmed town, he's likely the best suited to cracking things. I'm inclined to believe it's NJW and Roden interfered with the gunsmith. And having limited shots to kill people makes it less flippy. They might only have 1.
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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #976 on: October 24, 2021, 03:09:48 pm »

I'm pretty busy right now, but just let me say, Roden, that I wasn't 100% on you being scum before this post. Now I'm a lot closer.

A few points, briefly as I'm busy tonight.

Quote
NJW says he Deflected Web onto Toony, yet Web still died. We know his night action claim is false now, because even if a Strongman were in the game it doesn't get around redirection according to the wiki.
Nope. Maybe you can cherrypick a quote from somewhere that supports your statement, but so can I. Furthermore, any strongman or strongman equivalent put in the game would be there to get around my deflection power, because of how potentially gamebreaking powers like that are, so this is nonsense. Anyhoo, a strongman is only one theory. You have a bunch of interference roles, so perhaps there's an explanation there.

Quote
So why did Toony's and NJW's night actions not work?
I don't know why my deflection let a kill through, but there are two mafia here so there's a whole lot I don't know. FoU cooks some pretty weird setups.

Quote
And why don't they suspect each other?
Clearly untrue if you actually read my posts. Unless you assume I'm lying through our teeth, in which case you've already assumed I'm mafia, so don't need to consider this. Last person to misread my posts this badly was Webadict.


Quote
Another problem with this theory that I'm scum is that killing Web is non-sensical from my point of view. You can see that I had a clear progression in my posts where I went from not trusting Web and voting him, to getting to the point where I claimed that not protecting Web would be scummy. Why would I kill him if I trusted him? Furthermore, why would I kill him at all if he's the Captain? If he dies and he's town, I lose my abilities. If he's scum, I keep my abilities but lose an ally. It's a lose-lose scenario for me, I have zero reason to ever kill him, especially since it's clear that I did trust him.
Your posts do not reflect your intentions if you're scum, so that's irrelevant. If you thought Web was town, according to your own claim you'd be trading a single one-shot ability to hamstring a deflector and an inventor, and kill a one-shot roleblocker... while you could still perform a kill at night. The trade would be worthwhile even if you didn't have a nightkill.

Quote
Tric could NOT have affected NJW because of my Repel.
Tell me what a repel is! I can't find it on mafiascum.





I was honestly considering Tric/Toony before this but sheesh... That post was not worthy of Town!Roden. Currently this looks like distancing from Toony, but I'll try to keep an open mind. Not voting yet, this may just be the unfortunate breakdown of a usually calm and sanguine town player. Tric/Vector still needs another look too, can't be sure Vec hasn't been playing a very odd line due to absence. Is there a world in which Vector gave Web a gun and he somehow ended up shooting himself?

Hold on...




Vector: in this post here, you said that Web ordered you to give him an invention. He also ordered me to deflect from him to a person of my own choosing. Did that seem at all odd to you?

Didn't have time to discuss this D2 because of the hammer, but N2 I had "WEB HANDS OUT RANDOM GUNS?" written in big letters in my notes. Didn't pursue it immediately because he died, but I think this merits some discussion. Would be keen to hear people's thoughts on this.

--

Haven't had time to go through Tric's last two posts, he ninja'd me, but will pick through it at some point.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #977 on: October 24, 2021, 03:16:18 pm »

TL:DR, Repel in this case means reflect, or Mirror. So a kill against me would have bounced back. What did you expect to happen last night Roden? Cause I was rather clear about protecting Toony to Jack D1. Not the other way round.
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Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #978 on: October 24, 2021, 04:27:25 pm »

My Role

I have three 50-50 inventions: gun, bulletproof, voyeur. The last of these gives the gist of categories of actions performed on the target, e.g. "this target was inspected," "this target was protected," etc. All three inventions have a 50-50 chance to fail. I have to cycle through all three inventions before I can give the same one twice.


I'm fairly confident that ToonyMan is on the scumteam. Long post coming up.
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Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 1): March of the Gladiators
« Reply #979 on: October 24, 2021, 04:48:22 pm »

Webadict softclaims in the thread over and over again as Mafially, attempting to communicate with his partner.

I mean, that's assuming the Captain is Mafia, Tric.

But who would ever make that assumption...?

Good to know. This means I will get a positive result on Tric if I investigate them. I think Tric is being honest here which means they're likely town.
Oh, is that what we're doing? Then I will claim to have no gun at all. I'm clean! But that doesn't matter because you won't believe me regardless, and I'd probably claim either way as Mafia, so it's up to you to believe my outlandish claims.

The beauty of it all is that I actually don't have to kill you if I'm lying, because you won't investigate me at all. Even when I write this, I would bet that you wouldn't waste your inspection on me. Partially because I don't believe you're actually a Gunsmith, but also partially because I think you think I'm not lying.

Also true, if I were the Captain, I'd be the greatest Captain of all time. But, instead, I'm a *deep breath* Combined Activated Cop Enabler Doctor (Or, CACED, for short.) When I perform my Doctoring, I also enable Cop inspects. Which is why I'm fairly certain I'll be killed tonight, and also why I'm willing to bet at least one of the Cop claims is legit.

We'll now be able to determine if the Captain is, in fact, Mafia.


Webadict starts repeatedly saying "Toony might be scum" or that he is lying, but then it never goes anywhere in terms of hunting.

Look in particular at the weird ending of this post and what Web says about Toony and EuchreJack, in light of what happens at the end of D1:

Oh man, I missed this. You guys are just so easy. No wonder Tric never wins as Mafia.

So, Tric is probably Town because he's obviously stupid. Roden might be Town, but he'll be an absolute drag on the Town if he is, which is unfortunate. Vector is probably Mafia. ToonyMan is... Maybe Town. It wouldn't matter if he's Mafia because he won't be dying tonight regardless. Waiting on EuchreJack, but if Vector is Mafia like I think they are, then it's not EJ based on the Gambler's Fallacy, which would, in fact, leave it as either NJW2000 or Maximum Spin as the last Mafia. NJW2000 is not out of meta, so I'd be willing to leave them as neutral, and thus, it's Maximum Spin and Vector.

More breadcrumbing:

On the contrary, I'm trying to bait the kill, and if I succeed, I will be dead.

Anyway, should we be focusing Maximum Spin or Vector?
Who is "we" here?

On the contrary, I'm trying to bait the kill, and if I succeed, I will be dead.
I get that the meme shit and insulting people might just be how you play RVS, but if you've come around to "my claim was lying actually aha", what were your last nineteen posts meant to accomplish for town?
"We" is Toony and I, clearly.

[...]

Webadict, buddying me and telling us you'll be dead N1 so we don't vote you today.  Roll mafia yet again?
Nope. I rolled... Wait, hold on, Town isn't spelled with an M!

[...]

Is this the part where I start actually trying, or should I just wait until it's socially acceptable to vote myself like you in a desperate attempt at... I don't know if that sentence has an ending. Anyway, I'll still adamantly point at Vector and Maximum Spin as top suspects, but I suppose it's easier to just defenestrate the emperor, and then find the actual bad guys when you know he's on your side.

Although to be fair Web feels like they're lying out of their ass which mucks things up, but whatever.
I lie about a lot of things because I'm actually sending secret messages to the captain.

[...]

It's pretty easy to do whatever you want when you're not constrained by things like alignment or scumbuddies. I'm free as Town.


Toony starts responding to Web:

@Webadict:
Although to be fair Web feels like they're lying out of their ass which mucks things up, but whatever.
I lie about a lot of things because I'm actually sending secret messages to the captain.
...Sure, got it.

[...]

Therefore I see NJW and Web in a better light than my last reads, besides getting a better feel from Web after rereading.

I also don't think you're a Gunsmith, though, but that okay. It's a good deflection, and I like it. In any case, I'll call you Town, and continue on my way.
If you don't believe me then why am I town?

@ToonyMan: I never said you were Town. Only that I would call you Town. There's a subtle difference.


Toony and Web start coordinating kills and night actions in the thread:

I'm not moving off Jack.

@Toony: Let's goooooo. EuchreJack

Also, Mafia, plz no kill, I'll do whatever you want, just no kill plz. Thx.

Also, Mafia, plz no kill, I'll do whatever you want, just no kill plz. Thx.
Lol

It continues D2:

Right. I checked Vector and it was negative so no guns on them at least.
Yarrrr, mateys. Why'n' we let ol' Toony pick who walks the plank today... wouldn'ye say that be more'n fair?

So, ToonyMan, who be yer most suspicious? Ye can take yer time if'n ya want.

Lololol
Ye seasick scallion, I still think yer a lyin' landlubber!

I just can't prove it.

So, if I accept Tric is Town, which is very likely, then the Mafia team is either Vector and Maximum Spin OR ToonyMan and one of TricMagic/NJW2000/Roden. Technically, Tric can be Mafia with pretty much anyone, but that's a tough pill to swallow.

If Vector/MS, then either MS did the kill and got blocked, or Vector did the kill and targeted me (They wouldn't do that, would they??? :()

If ToonyMan is Mafia, then... A lot of factors are unsure.
If Roden is Mafia, then who the fuck is their partner?? It has to be ToonyMan... or like, maybe NJW2000??

We could vote out one of Vector or Max to test them and then go into tomorrow. Max hasn't claimed, so that lends credit to them being scum, and Vector's lack of presence is also scummy. Additionally, me being attacked would make sense from their perspective because I soft-claimed to Vector yesterday, and they would've picked up on that, so their goal was to kill the Captain and remove all the power from Town.

I'm pretty sure that's what happened... Which would be really unfortunate if true, for so many reasons.

Thanks for the insight Web, you're town in my book right there with ol' Roden and Tric.

I really do think Tric just straight up caught the mafia team which is fucking hilarious, so I'll vote Maximum Spin.
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Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #980 on: October 24, 2021, 04:50:43 pm »

PS: Yes, I hammered by accident. This was the long post that I was going to vote Web and/or Toony with yesterday but had to delete.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #981 on: October 24, 2021, 05:05:12 pm »

I've been busy today but I'll be home in a couple hours for more time.
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #982 on: October 24, 2021, 05:51:24 pm »

At work so I can't make a long post until later tonight, but I already explained what Repel does.

Night 2, I used my Repel and prevented Tric from being able to interact with NJW. I actually misread it and thought I would be the reverse since I was trying to protect Tric, but it ultimately didn't matter.
It's essentially a one-way target-specific role block.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #983 on: October 24, 2021, 07:38:22 pm »

@Roden:
So, we have a bit of a problem here, Tric and Vector. Toony and NJW both think I'm scum. They haven't really given a reason as to why I'm scum, but alright, they both suspect me.

...Why don't they suspect each other? They both have each other as a possible pairing with me, but they aren't actually considering that I could be town and the other the true scum. We've had two days in a row where we thought the scum team was obvious, but then turned out to be wrong, yet they both think third time's the charm and want to vote who they think is the obvious choice again?
I think you're both scum dude. I wouldn't say Day 1 was obvious, I was wrong about Jack and the thread had been swaying between Max and Web. And for Day 2 we had an alignment check from Tric on the top two most suspicious players at the time.

So why did Toony's and NJW's night actions not work? And why don't they suspect each other?
I do suspect NJW! I think he's distancing from you!!

Likelihoods:

Vector/Tric - possible
Vector/Roden - not possible
Vector/NJW - not possible

Tric/Roden - possible
Tric/NJW - unlikely

Roden/NJW - possible

I have to decide between voting Tric or Roden.
This especially looks awful, seeing as Toony had the most to gain from disabling all of the remaining roles in the game if he'd happened to be town.
If Web was my ally why would I fuck myself by killing him?? How would I have killed him unless I'm working with NJW??

Roden, between the two of you there's a higher probability you're mafia over NJW. This is the only reason why I would vote you over NJW.

Web hid info about your role. He forced Vector to give you stuff or do nothing at all. Which worked since Vector did seem to comply.


@Vector:
case about me and Web interacting in-thread
Me and Web have played a lot of games together. We mess around. I try to get a feel if they're town or not. Web tries to get a feel if I'm town or not. We're pretty good at figuring each other out.

When we're both town anyway.

Unfortunately, I am much worse at this game when Web is mafia (or mafia-ally in this case).

On Day 1 when Web started making strange posts I thought he was fishing, trying to bait people, and it made me suspicious. This must be exactly what he wanted. So like the scrub I am when I face him I fell for it. Every time I play this guy and he's mafia and I'm town he ALWAYS out mindgames me.

I got hooked and tried poking, but he went crazier and people started dogpiling him. It felt just like town!Web in something like Mostly Vanilla Mafia 2 where he railed into ShadowDUMP and almost got himself lynched for being an asshole. It was just like that during Day 1! That's why it bothered me. But he was fucking with me the whole time.

By Day 2 I fully believed he was town. He tricked me, again, just like in Supernatural 10 or Tric's Matrix mafia.

Roden claims I killed Web to disable the town roles, but this claim is contradicted by the evidence you have found Vector. If I was corresponding with Web in-thread, why would I fuck myself by killing him?? Does that make sense?? Not only does this not make sense motivation-wise, but there's a mechanical reason this isn't possible: NJW claims they deflected Web to me! NJW has hypothesized a mafia strongman, but that can't beat redirections!

Vector. I wasn't sure about you. That's why I checked you first. Tric is clearing you as well and I believe in my Tric read the most. So I trust the two of you. I think NJW and Roden are both fucking with me. I am going to reread this entire round, figure it out, and post my findings with a vote before this day is over. I cannot let town get its first defeat.

NJW is more likely to have killed Webadict while Roden fucked with me last night, so in this case we should actually vote NJW first since they're definitely a killer, but I will look into it more.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #984 on: October 24, 2021, 07:48:08 pm »

You had me up to voting NJW first. They are equally dangerous. But Roden's flip gives a lot of info for day 3. I'm likely to end up dead, or Vector's going to end up dead. Not that either matters given how we'll know exactly what happened.

This especially looks awful, seeing as Toony had the most to gain from disabling all of the remaining roles in the game if he'd happened to be town.
Question, when was it brought up that the captain's death would disable the remaining rolls? And what would he gain from it any other mafia wouldnt'?
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #985 on: October 24, 2021, 09:29:23 pm »

You had me up to voting NJW first. They are equally dangerous. But Roden's flip gives a lot of info for day 3. I'm likely to end up dead, or Vector's going to end up dead. Not that either matters given how we'll know exactly what happened.
Okay, how about this: I'll go through this round and pick out everything I see on rereading. I'm busy tonight, but I'll be good tomorrow for us to crack this.

After that Tric I give you my vote. Who you vote I'll vote. Vector suspects me because of Web, but I have to convince them as well or else it's over. I was thinking Vector could make you a gun, but NJW could deflect it to themselves if they're alive.
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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #986 on: October 24, 2021, 09:36:57 pm »

-
Comes across as desperate, which is not Town!Toony in my experience. Could be that he thinks Vector and Web are better than him though, and this is genuine fear.


Bleh. Pretty much completely sure it can't be a Tric/Vector team at this point, would be incredible for both mafia to be off the D1 wagon if even I had the brains to suspect that Jack was a poor lynch idea. Currently buying into the Toony/Roden possibility pretty hard. For one thing, they've been townreading one another hard all game, only to swing now.

Then again... shenanigans with a gun. Not sure if I think mafia started with a gun... jesus christ. The nonsense and confusion this game is really starting to wear on me.



Still trying to figure out what the hell was going on last night. Considering the possibility of one-shot bus drive on Roden - would fit the interference JOAT, comes before most things in Natural Action Resolution on the wiki, and potentially only one target would be chosen by Web. Of course, that would need to either involve my deflection or mafia not being sure Web was their ally.

A Drive swapping Toony and Web followed by a deflection from me would have yielded a situation where anything that was going for Web or Toony hit... web. This either means mafia genuinely planned for Web to die or tried to kill toony... which clears toony. Which makes the team... idk, Roden and Tric? High chaos but wouldn't expect those two to keep going so long necessarily...



If I was corresponding with Web in-thread, why would I fuck myself by killing him?? Does that make sense??
You dumb fucks.
*bleh*
If you're scum, Web is positing a psychological explanation here.



@Vector: got a question here about Web's supposed scheme to hand out guns like halloween candy. Any thoughts? Notice the issue at the time? I didn't until N2, but D2 was rather short from my perspective.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #987 on: October 24, 2021, 09:47:17 pm »

Tric/Roden is possible, but Tric would be playing the most amazing mafia of his life.
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Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #988 on: October 24, 2021, 11:44:34 pm »

@Vector: got a question here about Web's supposed scheme to hand out guns like halloween candy. Any thoughts? Notice the issue at the time? I didn't until N2, but D2 was rather short from my perspective.

I think it's important to note that I have stuff other than guns, because that changes the situation somewhat. He's not giving out guns, he's forcing people to action him and one of the actions could potentially involve a gun.

Webadict was definitely fishing for his partner and among other things, I'm pretty sure he thought the partner was one of me, Toony, and Roden. I read the thread very carefully and we were the three that he kept going "maayyyyybe they're scum but ... let's go kill MaximumSpin!" or whatever. The thing that clinched Toony for me personally was the interactions back toward Web.

Think about it from this perspective: Web is trying to find out who's on his team. He forces everyone that he can to action him and then says: BUT DON'T NK ME SERIOUSLY GUYS. I think that his behavior makes sense in terms of trying to draw out actual townies vs. the scumteam. He breadcrumbs as hard as he can that he's scum and the captain and then tries to get some more definitive data than just the fuzzy day game from his team.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #989 on: October 25, 2021, 02:05:36 am »

I'm pretty busy right now, but just let me say, Roden, that I wasn't 100% on you being scum before this post. Now I'm a lot closer.

A few points, briefly as I'm busy tonight.

Quote
NJW says he Deflected Web onto Toony, yet Web still died. We know his night action claim is false now, because even if a Strongman were in the game it doesn't get around redirection according to the wiki.
Nope. Maybe you can cherrypick a quote from somewhere that supports your statement, but so can I. Furthermore, any strongman or strongman equivalent put in the game would be there to get around my deflection power, because of how potentially gamebreaking powers like that are, so this is nonsense. Anyhoo, a strongman is only one theory. You have a bunch of interference roles, so perhaps there's an explanation there.
What? What are you referencing with cherrypicking?

Your ability is clearly balanced around the fact a Captain was ordering you around, there's no reason to further reduce your power. The fact that I'm a JOAT proves I didn't role block you because it's essentially proven I already used my 1-shot Jailkeep on Night 1.

How did I get the kill if I role blocked you anyway? I would have to be Multitasking and Web's flip proves that I'm not. The fact that there was no kill Night 1 either also proves that I'm not Multitasking, since I wouldn't have tried to NK Web while also Jailing him, I would have just targeted a Cop claim. Toony also claims he got no result on you, so what exactly did I do to you if you're claiming that I role blocked you?

Furthermore, your theory for me being the killer here just, doesn't make sense if you think about what had to have happened.

Web orders you to Deflect him.

Web orders me to target you.

I then kill Web even though it's a lose-lose outcome for me.

Is this what you truly believe to be Web's master plan...?

Quote
So why did Toony's and NJW's night actions not work?
I don't know why my deflection let a kill through, but there are two mafia here so there's a whole lot I don't know. FoU cooks some pretty weird setups.
Uh, is this a TMI slip? What makes you think we have two mafia and an ally?

Quote
And why don't they suspect each other?
Clearly untrue if you actually read my posts. Unless you assume I'm lying through our teeth, in which case you've already assumed I'm mafia, so don't need to consider this. Last person to misread my posts this badly was Webadict.
Clearly untrue...yet you've repeatedly said over and over that you think I'm mafia and how badly this looks for me. Which I'm still not sure why you think I look bad? If you're claiming solely off of my role name that I look scummy, you're completely ignoring how town has had scummy looking roles and mafia townie looking roles in past rounds.

Besides that, you say Toony is possibly my partner, but you only want to vote me. You're showing so little paranoia towards Toony and it's pretty uncharacteristic of you. Especially since you were town reading me before today.

Quote
Another problem with this theory that I'm scum is that killing Web is non-sensical from my point of view. You can see that I had a clear progression in my posts where I went from not trusting Web and voting him, to getting to the point where I claimed that not protecting Web would be scummy. Why would I kill him if I trusted him? Furthermore, why would I kill him at all if he's the Captain? If he dies and he's town, I lose my abilities. If he's scum, I keep my abilities but lose an ally. It's a lose-lose scenario for me, I have zero reason to ever kill him, especially since it's clear that I did trust him.
Your posts do not reflect your intentions if you're scum, so that's irrelevant. If you thought Web was town, according to your own claim you'd be trading a single one-shot ability to hamstring a deflector and an inventor, and kill a one-shot roleblocker... while you could still perform a kill at night. The trade would be worthwhile even if you didn't have a nightkill.
I'm sorry, what? How do posts not reflect intentions? That's literally how you're supposed to read people, wtf.

Also that trade is crazy weighted against me no matter Web's alignment, wtf are you talking about? You just claimed Web could force the Captain subordinates to act in a way to benefits me as mafia, so why would I kill him? The more you try to push me here, the less your accusation makes sense.

Quote
Tric could NOT have affected NJW because of my Repel.
Tell me what a repel is! I can't find it on mafiascum.
I did. And you're accusing me of not reading your posts, lol.

I was honestly considering Tric/Toony before this but sheesh... That post was not worthy of Town!Roden. Currently this looks like distancing from Toony, but I'll try to keep an open mind. Not voting yet, this may just be the unfortunate breakdown of a usually calm and sanguine town player. Tric/Vector still needs another look too, can't be sure Vec hasn't been playing a very odd line due to absence. Is there a world in which Vector gave Web a gun and he somehow ended up shooting himself?
???

In what universe have I been playing calm and sanguine in these games? Also you're accusing me of distancing from Toony, but then you just distanced from him now.
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