Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[EuchreJack]

Ultimately I'll have to do some kind of agenda meta analysis.

Looking forward to it. 

[EuchreJack]

Since you scum read me, do you not believe my Tracker claim? I could target you tonight to prove it, if you have an active ability.

Sorry for the multi-posting, but I just figured out how to explain why this makes Roden Town. (Assuming no mafia tracker)

Roden has committed to telling everyone whom I target on N1.

Without the Tracker ability, Roden would not know who I target.
As mafia faking tracker, Roden would then be forced to kill me N1.

However, as Roden made the claim, and obviously needed me dead to weasel out of it, Roden would be heavily suspected of being mafia.

Since the mafia controls who lives and dies in the night phase, the whole scenario is a mess that a mafia player would avoid like plague.

Ergo, Roden must be town. Mafia wouldn't want to both tie themselves to killing one person in the middle of the day phase AND come under suspicion for the kill.

[EuchreJack]

...there is also the possibility that Roden is mafia and is willing to take the 50/50 chance of guessing right.
7 players, assume between Toonyman and Town Lynch hitting one mafia and one town, then mafia kills one town, leaves 3 town 1 mafia, but the one mafia (Roden) has committed to tracking one townie (me), ergo 50/50.  Still, would mafia want to put themselves in a situation where they have a 50% chance of losing.  Not winning, as they still have to push that claim into a winning position.

[EuchreJack]

If I trust Vector then I should suspect Tric.

Ah, but recall the scumchats!  Vector stated early on that they would probably confirm Tric as Town. If you don't trust Vector, then you should still suspect Tric!

Actually Vector and Tric could be distancing. I was about to say their interactions weren't scum vs scum but Day 1 distancing is really easy to do, especially since no one usually feels like they have to commit to have a vote.

A valid strategy that worked relatively well in Round 1.

@Vector: Last game, as mafia, you didn't claim D1, held your vote on one person the whole day,  and mildly FoS'd your scumbuddy. So far in this game you've held your vote on one person and not claimed. I don't really know your playstyle. If your alignment is different this game, is there going to be a difference between your D1s that indicates that?

I'm town.

I'm also a veteran at this game. No, you shouldn't expect to be able to read me. Why does everyone think I'm not going to be good at this after 10 years @_@


I still think it's Tric and I'm sticking with it. P. sure Metruption is town, think Toony is town, ... Euchrejack is probably town, he's all over the place as town. I guess if I was going to think of a team it would be NJW/Tric. NJW was playing good town last game and just took a massive drop in skill level, so that's a tell of some kind.

Thus, logically, Toonyman should shoot Tric.  I'm not 100% sure on Tric, but I gotta shake off the buddying and it isn't my call.

[TricMagic]

Right, remove the person with the self-redirect. Great call. Is there a reason you want me dead before anything else?

... Jack are you playing a game? Which scumchat exactly? Because if it's last games, that does not automatically apply to this one unless you want to make an argument that has no application within this game. Or evidence behind it.

[NJW2000]

@NJW:
Between Tric and Met who do you think is a more likely hit?

Based on the very little Met has posted and what Tric has done so far, I think Met. This is mostly due to a slight townread on Tric, and Tric again claiming a role that has a reasonable chance of being mechanically confirmed. I really don't like the idea of you shooting or us lynching either of them yet, because Met hasn't had a chance to say much.


@EuchreJack: how likely do you consider the possibility that Roden is a mafia tracker?

@NJW2000: Why shouldn't Toonyman shoot you?  Who should Toonyman shoot?

Why shouldn't Toony shoot me? Because (if) he doesn't read me as scum, or most likely to be that. People are talking about my dropping in skill level, although last game D1 I was the only town player committed to lynching Met, with everyone else either interested in nolynch or on the Vector wagon, so I'm not sure I could do much worse. I guess they mean my posts come across as more scummy. I'm certainly a bit more exasperated this game, so perhaps they can interpret it as that. As you say at some point above, defending myself isn't really that useful to town. So let's get to the good bit:

I'd be happier seeing Toonyman shoot you or Roden right now, although I want to see what else Met does before that happens. Let's talk about why.

Immediately, apparently independently, at the start of the day the two of you mention no-lynch, with Roden firmly advocating for it. Sure, he gives some reasons why, and you could just have been asking a question. Still jumped out at me.

Then, you scumread Roden hard as the day progresses. Quite common for mafia to do early day 1.

You arrange to coordinate your night actions, with him tracking you - a smart plan for the scum team, as they know one another's night actions. Roden doesn't even need to be a tracker for this to work, although obviously it would help.

Then finally, a few posts above, you post an analysis of why he "must" be town, sliding in the condition "if mafia don't have a tracker" but offering your conclusion in green bold text.

To Recap: the two of you have been uncannily in sync from the start, you've started out scumreading him and swung hard into a townread, and arranged to coordinate your actions tonight. I think the two of you are working together.

For anyone interested in how I would be voting if the daykill stuff wasn't happening, the above should do. Then again, I'm pretty sure Toony is going to shoot whoever he thinks is scum today, leading to new information in any case, so there we have it. In fact, Unvote, I'm not placing a vote against a consensus to hold off on lynching.

[ToonyMan]

Busy right now but I will say NJW is correct that I don't think Roden and Jack are mafia unless it's exactly both of them together. Which I find incredibly unlikely as I townread both independent of each other.

Jack's reasoning on Roden is spot on, it's a nice parallel to NJW's reasoning on Tric last round.

[Roden]

I don't have too much to add since I think everyone has already more or less stated everything I had thoughts on. However I only offered to track Jack because he was heavily scum reading me and I knew I had a way to prove I was town to him. I could Track you tonight instead NJW, or Vector, or Tric, or Met. I don't mind making it a group decision, because I'm obviously not catching scum tonight with it. If I openly target scum, they have to either role block me, have their partner kill, or no kill if they're solo.

[EuchreJack]

@EuchreJack: how likely do you consider the possibility that Roden is a mafia tracker?

Next to nil, but I like considering the nearly impossible.

I'd be happier seeing Toonyman shoot you or Roden right now, although I want to see what else Met does before that happens.

@NJW2000: Considering that Toonyman gets to take the shot, and is apparently convinced both Roden and I are town, whom is your third choice?

Right, remove the person with the self-redirect. Great call. Is there a reason you want me dead before anything else?

... Jack are you playing a game? Which scumchat exactly? Because if it's last games, that does not automatically apply to this one unless you want to make an argument that has no application within this game. Or evidence behind it.

@Tric: It's not my shot to make.  Shooting you isn't what I would do.  You're talking to the wrong person.
Other than me, who's your scum pick?

[TricMagic]

Cut the wheels from underneath the push why don't you... Except I'm asking you why you think that, not trying to convince you not to shoot me. If you had that power those reasons might be together(though probably not given it is your choice), but since Toony does.

Why ignore it anyway? What makes you want me shot? And for the record, no clue. Kinda why there isn't any other votes from me.

...

If I trust Vector then I should suspect Tric.

Ah, but recall the scumchats!  Vector stated early on that they would probably confirm Tric as Town. If you don't trust Vector, then you should still suspect Tric!

Actually Vector and Tric could be distancing. I was about to say their interactions weren't scum vs scum but Day 1 distancing is really easy to do, especially since no one usually feels like they have to commit to have a vote.

A valid strategy that worked relatively well in Round 1.

@Vector: Last game, as mafia, you didn't claim D1, held your vote on one person the whole day,  and mildly FoS'd your scumbuddy. So far in this game you've held your vote on one person and not claimed. I don't really know your playstyle. If your alignment is different this game, is there going to be a difference between your D1s that indicates that?

I'm town.

I'm also a veteran at this game. No, you shouldn't expect to be able to read me. Why does everyone think I'm not going to be good at this after 10 years @_@


I still think it's Tric and I'm sticking with it. P. sure Metruption is town, think Toony is town, ... Euchrejack is probably town, he's all over the place as town. I guess if I was going to think of a team it would be NJW/Tric. NJW was playing good town last game and just took a massive drop in skill level, so that's a tell of some kind.

Thus, logically, Toonyman should shoot Tric.  I'm not 100% sure on Tric, but I gotta shake off the buddying and it isn't my call.

@EuchreJack: how likely do you consider the possibility that Roden is a mafia tracker?

Next to nil, but I like considering the nearly impossible.

I'd be happier seeing Toonyman shoot you or Roden right now, although I want to see what else Met does before that happens.

@NJW2000: Considering that Toonyman gets to take the shot, and is apparently convinced both Roden and I are town, whom is your third choice?

Right, remove the person with the self-redirect. Great call. Is there a reason you want me dead before anything else?

... Jack are you playing a game? Which scumchat exactly? Because if it's last games, that does not automatically apply to this one unless you want to make an argument that has no application within this game. Or evidence behind it.

@Tric: It's not my shot to make.  Shooting you isn't what I would do.  You're talking to the wrong person.
Other than me, who's your scum pick?

This doesn't make any sense jack. You give a logical answer, suspect me, then say that isn't what you would do.. Suspecting is a natural part of this game, but making posts to push others to suspect me just sounds off..

The logic you use isn't actually logical. There's an inconsistency.

If I trust Vector then I should suspect Tric.

Ah, but recall the scumchats!  Vector stated early on that they would probably confirm Tric as Town. If you don't trust Vector, then you should still suspect Tric!

If Toony trusts Vector, then suspecting Tric is only natural. But if Toony doesn't trust Vector, then he shouldn't come to that conclusion from trust. Or rather, if Vector is Mafia and your logic holds true, Vector doesn't trust me at all! Which is the opposite of what you are stating!

[EuchreJack]

IF Vector is Scum AND Tric is Town THEN Vector pushes Tric as Town. <-the argument at issue

Ah yes, logic classes serve me well, for "Vector pushes Tric as Town" is FALSE.
We thus know that "Vector is Scum AND Tric is Town" is also FALSE.

So, if Vector is Scum is TRUE, then Tric is Town must be FALSE.

@Tric: Self-redirects are tricky, and the results they provide vary based on mod. 
Is proof of self-redirect proof of alignment?  Pretty much the only role you wouldn't want directed onto yourself is cop. 
Everything else lets your scumbuddy act freely.

[TricMagic]

IF Vector is Scum AND Tric is Town THEN Vector pushes Tric as Town. <-the argument at issue

Ah yes, logic classes serve me well, for "Vector pushes Tric as Town" is FALSE.
We thus know that "Vector is Scum AND Tric is Town" is also FALSE.

So, if Vector is Scum is TRUE, then Tric is Town must be FALSE.

@Tric: Self-redirects are tricky, and the results they provide vary based on mod. 
Is proof of self-redirect proof of alignment?  Pretty much the only role you wouldn't want directed onto yourself is cop. 
Everything else lets your scumbuddy act freely.

So... Your argument is that Vector is Scum if I'm Scum? Off of something Vector said something in mafia chat and you're using that as the base for a new argument. Without any supporting evidence to the hypothesis other than 'distancing'.

Right, you've clearly gone off the deep end. You need evidence to prove your hypothesis Jack. Anything else is conjecture. Mostly cause you take Vector to be Scum as the one unifier to your hypothesis. I don't have any clear-cut reads at the moment, but that sits wrong with me. What happens Vector is Town is TRUE? Would TricMagic is SCUM still be True? Or would it be FALSE? The entire thing breaks down, and you still didn't answer my initial question. It's fancy tricks, and no answer.

[EuchreJack]

@Tric: Ask a solitary question, clearly differentiated from everything else, and I'd be happy to answer.  I can't decipher which of your statements with question marks at the end are argument, rhetorical, or actually require my response.

Question for Tric: How does your role claim prove that you are town?

My argument/theory/etc is that irregardless of alignment, Vector would clear you as town if they felt you were town.
If Vector is town, they would clear you as town if they felt you were town in order to narrow down the suspects.
If Vector is mafia, they would clear you as town, knowing absolutely that you are town, then Vector would clear you as town.

That last part comes from item #7 of last round's scum chat: "Or maybe I'll confirm Tric. He's the world's worst confirmed townie or lying about his role, which he seems to like to do as town. "

But hey, I'm not Vector, so I dunno if that is still accurate.

I think I'll wait until you answer my question before I decide whether to vote you.  I made it really clear, too.

[EuchreJack]

Scum Chat https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/BL62cT7fGqKsu

It's only polite to reference what I'm talking about.

[TricMagic]

In case of mafia kill, it tells that I couldn't do it. Those without any claims when a kill happens would have to make one up, but mine is confirmable. It doesn't completely clear me though if there are two.