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Author Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (Game Over): Lessons Of Mob Mentality  (Read 110654 times)

Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2160 on: January 24, 2022, 04:12:35 pm »

From these claims, I think it's nearly confirmed to everyone that there is a mafia roleblocker. For there to not be a mafia roleblocker, you have to assume that Roden and I are both mafia. To assume that, you have to believe that Roden was given a useless Cop role (we know that he has this role, since there were multiple millers) as mafia. I think you'd have to take a pretty big leap in judgement to believe this.
Well, I got bad news for you, kid.

Roden's a damn liar. He sure didn't get a clear result on me last night because I'm a tracker, and I know he visited webadict instead.
Class, who can tell me what we do to liars in this game? I appreciate the gesture of clearing me, but no, you go in the pit.

And since Roden is indeed a liar, there's no reason to believe he got roleblocked last night either, which means there's no reason to believe you're getting roleblocked now, Magma.

Anyway, let's remember that Toaster's auto applied to all investigative abilities, so probably also mine (and another that I... know exists...), while it's entirely possible that NJW's was just there to provoke the traditional d1 miller claim with the effect that it did, indeed, have. I think it's just more likely that Roden claimed unreliable cop for exactly the reasons I stated on d1, which statement was probably also the reason I would've been the n1 kill target.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2161 on: January 24, 2022, 04:37:14 pm »

Cool. I gave Max a bulletproof vest last night.
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Magma Mater

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2162 on: January 24, 2022, 05:47:08 pm »

So you're saying Roden risked being caught by web for no reason. And claimed a town result on you instead of a town result on web, again for no reason. K.
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Magma Mater

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2163 on: January 24, 2022, 06:08:36 pm »

Did EuchreJack neighborize you last night, Toony? If not, I think it becomes exceedinglu obvious that the team is Jack / Max and I won't bother writing the rest of my post.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2164 on: January 24, 2022, 06:12:55 pm »

It was either me or Web, so. Maybe I could say if everybody was open about what they did when a lynch could lose us the game.

I want to hear Roden's response to Max. It's become clear Magma doesn't have a red check on Jack.
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webadict

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2165 on: January 24, 2022, 06:46:45 pm »

I will say that I don't appear to have anything extra in my action that would indicate anyone did anything specific to me.
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webadict

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2166 on: January 24, 2022, 09:27:25 pm »

So...

How's everyone doing?
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2167 on: January 24, 2022, 10:01:36 pm »

From these claims, I think it's nearly confirmed to everyone that there is a mafia roleblocker. For there to not be a mafia roleblocker, you have to assume that Roden and I are both mafia. To assume that, you have to believe that Roden was given a useless Cop role (we know that he has this role, since there were multiple millers) as mafia. I think you'd have to take a pretty big leap in judgement to believe this.
Well, I got bad news for you, kid.

Roden's a damn liar. He sure didn't get a clear result on me last night because I'm a tracker, and I know he visited webadict instead.
Class, who can tell me what we do to liars in this game? I appreciate the gesture of clearing me, but no, you go in the pit.

And since Roden is indeed a liar, there's no reason to believe he got roleblocked last night either, which means there's no reason to believe you're getting roleblocked now, Magma.

Anyway, let's remember that Toaster's auto applied to all investigative abilities, so probably also mine (and another that I... know exists...), while it's entirely possible that NJW's was just there to provoke the traditional d1 miller claim with the effect that it did, indeed, have. I think it's just more likely that Roden claimed unreliable cop for exactly the reasons I stated on d1, which statement was probably also the reason I would've been the n1 kill target.
Oh my God. Thank you, this just made the game so much easier.

So, I know I wasn't Redirected, because my result specifically says that Max is town-aligned. I don't think a Framer type role can exist in this set up either, that seems a little too bastard-y. So I think Max is just lying about his claim and is confirmed scum. And of course I got unlucky and rolled the 25% inaccuracy.

But what I don't understand is the logic of this play. Obviously I'm a pretty good target to scapegoat after I fucked up with the Toaster elim, but still. I don't understand the logic of fake claiming that I targeted Web. Or why Max thinks targeting Web would make me scum when Jim is the one who died. Or why he "Tracked" me in the first place tbh.

The other issue I have is why Max didn't want to claim Tracker beforehand. Why the hesitance in claiming that until now?
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2168 on: January 24, 2022, 10:09:22 pm »

I think if Jack is scum here, then one, that's impressive and I'm glad he varied up his play enough that he isn't so easily readable. And two, the new Neighbor needs to speak up, because it's entirely possible there is no hood and that Jack and Max have a private chat because they're both mafia. There really isn't any downside to telling us who the third neighbor is, it isn't alignment indicative and it shouldn't give away any secret info like power roles. But if there isn't a third neighbor then Max and Jack are just automatically caught here.
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EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2169 on: January 24, 2022, 11:31:39 pm »

I'll take some responsibility here.

1) I suggested that Max track Roden. Dunno if Max was going to do so anyway.
2) I told Max to not claim Day 2. Figured it would be more powerful if Max kept quiet about his role until he actually got to use it (since Max was blocked Day 1).
3) I thought it might be best for the New Neighbor to remain silent for as long as possible.

So yeah, blaming Max is somewhat incorrect.

Magma Mater

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2170 on: January 24, 2022, 11:38:20 pm »

I think that Max just mech locked himself as scum with that claim LOL

The only real assumption you need to make is that I am not lying about being a ninja.

I need to go to bed, and also I need to think about this for a bit. If the game is solved for me, that would be pretty great.
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2171 on: January 25, 2022, 12:25:27 am »

I'll take some responsibility here.

1) I suggested that Max track Roden. Dunno if Max was going to do so anyway.
2) I told Max to not claim Day 2. Figured it would be more powerful if Max kept quiet about his role until he actually got to use it (since Max was blocked Day 1).
3) I thought it might be best for the New Neighbor to remain silent for as long as possible.

So yeah, blaming Max is somewhat incorrect.
Thanks for the answers Jack, but this raises even more questions.

What made you suggest tracking me? And why do you feel it's pro-town to hide who the third neighbor is?

I think that Max just mech locked himself as scum with that claim LOL

The only real assumption you need to make is that I am not lying about being a ninja.

I need to go to bed, and also I need to think about this for a bit. If the game is solved for me, that would be pretty great.
That's how it looks, I just don't understand why he did this. He basically turned a really scary and vague Final 6 MELO into a straightforward 1v1 (or 2v1, technically). Because with this claim, he's proven that I didn't do the kill since he only saw me target Web. And by saying a scum Roleblocker doesn't exist and accusing you of being my partner, that means you would've had to have done the kill. Except you're claiming Ninja, and Web wouldn't be able to see it. And isn't pushing you to claim your role or who you targeted. It doesn't add up.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2172 on: January 25, 2022, 12:30:43 am »

But what I don't understand is the logic of this play. Obviously I'm a pretty good target to scapegoat after I fucked up with the Toaster elim, but still. I don't understand the logic of fake claiming that I targeted Web. Or why Max thinks targeting Web would make me scum when Jim is the one who died. Or why he "Tracked" me in the first place tbh.
Well, it's really simple: You targeted Web. I assume Magma killed Jim. Based on the available information, maybe it could be someone else - you could even be teamed with web if you're actually a lawyer or inventor or something else who would want to target your teammate - but I don't think so, because the roleblock Magma claimed isn't coming from anywhere unless you are specifically teamed with webadict and there's multitasking on the kill. Given that I know this actual version of the events last night:

EuchreJack neighborized the Mythical Third Neighbor
ToonyMan gave me Bulletproof
Maximum Spin tracked Roden
Roden targeted webadict
webadict can't be confirmed by me
Magma can't be confirmed by me
--- it therefore is necessary that there is either multitasking (and I know you didn't!) or one of webadict or Magma did the kill. And, well, webadict claimed. Even if he's lying, he would have had to multitask to roleblock Magma.

Soooo, ToonyMan, webadict, it's down to the two of you. Who will you follow? EuchreJack and the MTN actually want a no-lynch here. If that happens, scum basically have to target ONE of the Neighbors to prevent fighting a three-vote bloc tomorrow, right? This is why the MTN has been asked to stay quiet. I have Bulletproof and targeting me would prove I'm telling the truth anyway. Targeting EuchreJack is almost as bad in terms of proving me right. I mean, I hope I can count on you both to agree that, if EuchreJack dies, I'm as good as cleared. That said... if both of you agree to trust me on this one, and I recognise that's a lot to ask, then we can skip all that and put this to bed now. Well, we still have to lynch the other partner tomorrow, but it's so obviously Magma that I don't even care.

Except you're claiming Ninja, and Web wouldn't be able to see it. And isn't pushing you to claim your role or who you targeted. It doesn't add up.
You do have a history of doing this. That is to say, making a really obvious logical error and hoping nobody will point it out. Obviously, Magma isn't actually a ninja. He's the only one who said so.
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webadict

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2173 on: January 25, 2022, 12:36:52 am »

Right... I think I'll have to apologize to ToonyMan for calling him scum. Also, I'm not going to be able to finish this because sleep is important, but I did delay going to bed to type this and I will post before falling asleep. I hope.

So, basically, there's a couple of different choices here, but really, it's whether I think Max or Roden is lying. If Max is lying, there are a number of people that can be matched with Max, and the missing kill on Night 1 is really grating on me.

However, there's actually a little bit of hint in Maximum Spin's words here:
I have no idea. Thanks for roleblocking me, though.

[...]

Anyway, EuchreJack has convinced me that he's either town or absolutely stupid, and I don't think he's absolutely stupid.
This bit was worrying me for some time, because I assumed it was a negative thing he attempted to perform (On EuchreJack, as he said.)

If he thought EuchreJack was Town, why thank Toaster? But, him claiming Tracker actually does make sense: It didn't matter that he was blocked, because he already knew who his target had targeted.

It's a bit of a complication, in that, if Maximum Spin is scum, he definitely was blocked, and if he's not, he is fine either way. That's the tough part.

This is going to be one of those weird games. Anyway, I'm a miller.
I believe this claim. My role is useless, I'm an Unreliable Cop.
Roden claimed second, which really does put a lot of Towncred on Roden, and for the most part, that claim has been maintained throughout the game.

There's a bit of a complication, though, for Roden, besides the current situation, which is N1:

Hmmm...ok. But something isn't adding up.

I targeted Toaster last night but was also Roleblocked. I thought he might've been lying and was actually just Ascetic, but you're also claiming that you were Roleblocked. My Unreliable passive can't cause my action to fail either, I was specifically told something else caused it to fail. This is why I asked if you targeted Toaster.

Toaster can still be Ascetic I guess, since I don't know how we both could've been blocked here otherwise. But I'm just not sure why he would lie about his role if he's town. Then again, I'm not sure why anyone would waste their Roleblock on me just to stop me from confirming that Toaster is Null to investigations.

Why did you target Jack, btw?
Roden claims the Roleblock on N1. Assuming that Roden is scum, this might be an explanation to the no-kill on N1, as Roden attempted to kill Maximum Spin, who was protected. It doesn't really make sense for Roden to claim being blocked, though. It is a complication measure that hasn't been explained.

Roden also claims targeting Maximum Spin N2, which is another complication measure.



Honestly, I think I'd probably vote Roden in this situation, with the assumption that the Roleblocker doesn't exist. What would you say to that, Roden? If Maximum Spin is scum, who's his partner? Work through it with me.

PPE: I'll think about it more tomorrow, but it's possible this is a trap set by Maximum Spin? I'm a bit sleepy, but this could be a neat trap to test if Magma and I are scum. I'm not really in a rush to vote yet, because there's still plenty of time, so let's just think about it until then.
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Magma Mater

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2174 on: January 25, 2022, 09:05:33 am »

web, I was blocked last night. So, assuming you're town, from your PoV the only way Roden is scum is if I'm also scum and lying about being a ninja, and lying about being blocked.

From your PoV, the only possible scenario in which Roden and I are scum, is the scenario in which these things have happened:

1. Roden took an enormous risk and fakeclaimed Cop directly after the miller claimed, hoping there would be no counterclaim. Also, we have a miller and a null-miller with no town cop.
2. I took a pointless risk by fakeclaiming ninja, which could easily have been verified by the already-claimed town motion detector.
3. On night one, Roden and I targeted Jack with something, and tried to kill Max.
4. On night two, Roden targeted you with something, and I killed Jim.
5. Roden fakeclaimed being blocked night one because he wasn't sure what kind of cop result he'd get on Toaster (actually plausible).
6. Roden fakeclaimed targeting Max instead of web for ?? reasons.


On the other hand, for Max and Jack to be mafia, the following things must be true:

1. Max was blocked on night one, preventing the kill.
2. Jack blocked Roden night one, causing three motion detection pings.
3. Jack used a real neighborizer shot on Max night one.
4. Jack blocked Magma night two.


I think that, from your point of view, the simplest explanation is really just that Max and Jack are the scum team.

From my own point of view, Roden is always town. If he targeted web, then the partner both blocked me AND killed Jim. However, all the other claims have been confirmed. The action economy doesn't allow for it, unless someone's running around like Santa visiting 3 houses in a night.
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