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[NJW2000]

Excellent! We've reached the critical point. At this stage, what every player really wants is to watch one person shoot the other, as that's a guaranteed win whether human or robot. The humans however can't simply wait it out, one of us has to make a decision to pull the trigger.

So I'm going to go through the thread, see if NQTs willingness to kill was real, whether Prefs most recent play looked more like bussing or a human kill.

Of course, the ideal situation for me is if NQT is human and still willing to shoot Pref. Or vice versa. Not something I can rely on, obviously.


While I'm stating the obvious, I'd also like to note that in any coercion play (shoot or I'll shoot you), shooting the person doing the coercing is always the unspoken alternative.

[prefuzek]

Rereading now. So far it's not looking good for you, NQT.

[prefuzek]

I would say shoot NQT currently.

Couldn't pick the other human yet. I can tell you after seeing everyone's first posts.

Then shoot them? Or do you want me to do it, though that doesn't actually prove you even if they are a robot.

This seems like a bad post if Tric and Toony are both robots and NQT is human. Tric would be pushing Toony into something he can't do, or putting himself into a position where he needs to do something he can't do.

I'd like everyone to pick a player for me to shoot. I want to see who you'll all pick, and then I'm going to pick someone to shoot from that.

Howsabout you shoot ME, Asshat?

Is this your plan for trying to gauge me as human, or do you actually want me to vote you? I suppose picking me is an option, but if you're human, I'd highly recommend picking anyone else, especially since calling anyone suspicious is inherently a suspicious act. I suppose you could be pushing me to see if I'm willing to do the same play, but it feels too much like how NQT's play looked, and not enough about why it was that way.

Hm, it's quite likely that if you're the other human, I'm exactly correct in how I'm going to have to play, which would be unfortunate for multiple reasons, and if you're a robot, you'll probably be voted early. It's quite possible I won't have to read you at all.

This reads to me as web trying to paint himself as NJW's human partner. The last line especially feels like web deciding on a course of action where he and NJW are going to be the last two alive, and getting NJW ready to accept that outcome.

Ugh. I've played a fair few games of this in person, and I'm pretty sceptical about Wuba's "Who do I shoot?" game.

I don't understand the issue. If you're unwilling to choose someone as either human or robot, then you need to explain why.

Unwilling? I chose someone in the same post. Shoot me.

My problem with your "let's ask everybody who I shoot" thing is that it gets back three robot answers - four, in the increasingly marginal-looking case that you're human. Pretty much the ideal dataset for you to use to shoot whoever you like, if you're a robot, and a low-effort play likely to return hopelessly contrived results if you're a human.

Really, I think this is an excuse for the robots to set up whatever "shooting each other" gambit they're going for.

[snip]

Planning on shooting Webadict pretty soon unless new information comes to light, but I'll wait until we've had more like 24 hours of day.

(Damn keyboard shortcut posted for me)

I think robo-web would have shot robo-NJW here - unless this is a setup where web tries to make it look like he can't shoot his robot partner in order to make NJW look human. That would be a good play and I'm sure web would be capable of it, but I think things happened a little too fast and too smoothly for that to be the case. It's also not quite blatant enough since web never really seemed too close to shooting NJW.

K, so looking at the posts, NJW is probably town. Compared to the others, I feel their caution is unwarranted.

As such, I'd shoot Toony. (Hopefully I'm not making a mistake, but it's 1/5 chance today.)

This one's interesting because it's a really bad play if NJW is human. In one post, Tric killed a robot, made himself look very scummy, and called out NJW as town. Did he expect this kill to give him enough human-cred to ride out the game, or is this another setup to make NJW look good? Probably the former.


NJW's kill on webadict has great human reasoning and I wouldn't expect him, a newish player, to get rid of a great robot asset unless it was some kind of gambit. Again, I don't really see the pieces there for a gambit - most of NJW's towniness comes from their own strong play.

I want to look a bit more into webadict and NQT's behaviour around webadict's death but that'll come a bit later. For now,

NQT, NJW: Why weren't you posting yesterday? How close are you to voting someone?

[notquitethere]

Pfp

Hey sorry for going AWOL, a load of work stuff came up in last few days. Going to take a trawl through the game for when I get back. Don't shoot without me, we have time to get this right.

[NJW2000]

Didn't have time for a lot of posting yesterday, had my last exam and then other stuff. Don't have a huge amount of analysis to offer myself, I've mostly been looking at individuals and haven't got to interactions, but keep it up with the below, it's certainly offering an insight into the game.


Am I close to shooting someone? No, I'm going to wait until NQT is fully back. I don't think he's going to shoot me immediately if he's human, his play has been pretty temperate this game. Obviously I won't wait forever, but we have plenty of time and I'm not too worried about the pace of play.

I'd ask how close you are to shooting someone, but NQTs return kinda ruined any tension that could have created. Also, 55.3. Plus you're keeping us posted on your deliberations anyway.


Hi NQT, that's fair enough, life happens. Interested in how you feel after rereading the thread.

[prefuzek]

OK I'm reading through D2 with the two possibilities in mind.

Possibility 1: NJW, Tric, Web are robots, NQT is human

NQT wonders if NJW is still going to shoot Web. NJW says they still believe Web to be a robot and nothing much can change that. NJW is not going to back down on bussing Web, presumably because doing so would be very suspicious. Web asks NJW for someone to shoot, playing off of D1, but NJW refuses because either Web won't be able to kill that person (outing them as a human) or it'll get rid of another robot unnecessarily. This is the right move in this situation. NJW kills Web because they're pretty much forced to at this point, and comes out of it with a bunch of human cred. In Web's last post before the bus comes down, he prompts the last remaining human to kill a robot.

Summary: more plausible than I thought, but the last bit is a little odd.

Possibility 2: NQT, Tric, Web are robots, NJW is human

NQT asks NJW if he'll still shoot Web, looking to press if they back down. This would be a big victory if NJW said no, since it makes Web look way more human and NJW way less. Not getting the answer he wants, NQT doesn't follow up at all. NQT and web have a brief uninteresting disagreement. NQT realizes that Web is probably done for and doesn't want to get involved in NJW's attack for fear of incriminating himself as well. Before he goes down, Web prompts one robot to kill the other remaining robot in a bid to make one of them look more human.

Summary: also plausible. Also a little confused about the purpose of Web's last post in this scenario. NQT speculates on this at the beginning of D3 as well.

Anyone have anything to add? Feel free to make one for me but I wasn't involved much on D2.

[NJW2000]

That was all very clearly explained, Pref, but I'm not sure who this analysis is for. Take your last post.

NQT and I know which of the two possibilities above could obtain if you're human. Whether we believe either of them to obtain is another question entirely, but nothing you've written is going to convince either of us that one rather than the other holds. Explaining your reasoning if you are already going to kill someone is utterly unnecessary at this point, while a bunch of potentially WIFOM-filled analysis leading to an ambivalent conclusion isn't going to put anyone under pressure.

For the post before that, you seem to be leaning a bit towards "I'm much more suspiscious of NQT", but as we near the two-day mark, you back down from that.  Apart from the beautiful situation you put Tric in, nothing you've written really creates any tension.

In the immortal words of David Byrne: you're talking a lot but you're not saying anything.



The key thing now is for me or someone else to work out the right person to shoot, or to start asking questions that help them get there, despite NQT's absence if necessary. Questions such as:

Pref: Are you thinking about shooting someone? Are you willing to?

[NJW2000]

Damn. Can't wait any longer for NQT. Everyone still wants one of the other players to shoot the other, regardless of alignment, but I think I'm in a position to demand it.

Pref. The toothless questions, pointless analysis posts, killing someone generally held to be suspicious at the last point a robot could shoot at. Not a great look.

But NQT hasn't provided enough content for me to believe he's  human. I don't really want to hand the game over because someone on the other team is absent. I'll trust my instincts this far:


Pref: I think you're a robot. Shoot someone within 12 hours or I'll kill you.

[notquitethere]

OK, climbing out of my hole and time to trawl!

NJW:

NOTE:  The best strategy for humans is generally to find someone they thinks looks like a robot and shoot them, so that's what I'll be doing shortly.

If town, they made good on this on D2. But 2/3 of these kills were busses:

The kills were:
D1: scum!Tric kills scum!Toony
D2: NJW kills scum!Web
D3: prefuzek kills scum!Tric

So on willingness-to-kill Pref and NJW are the same. [Clicking 'post' now but continuing with my trawl, so maybe hold off on shooting for next 30 mins?]

[notquitethere]

So to continue. I took a look back at NJW and Prefuzek's kills.

Spoiler: Background (click to show/hide)

Here NJW is willing to thunderdome scum!web:

Unwilling? I chose someone in the same post. Shoot me.

Pref makes good on the promise to kill Tric:

Everyone, who are you most feeling like shooting right now? For me it's Tric or NQT, probably Tric.

NJW comments on the kill:

Nice to see a robot dead, but not feeling amazing about Tric's post while doing it. The reference to me feels a bit buddying, especially given the low content of his other two posts, while the kill reasoning is... not provided. We'll see if some is forthcoming.

This is pretty aggressive from Pref with Tric:

OK so if you're confident in your read why haven't you killed NQT yet? Or me? The bit I'm interested in is why you chose to kill specifically Toony.

But we'd expect the last two scum to want to distance heavily with each other. There's a build up to the trigger pull, with this critical ultimatum:

Tric, I'm going to shoot you within the next 12 hours unless you shoot either NJW or NQT.

So let's compare this ultimatum to trigger pull with NJW's kill:

Planning on shooting Webadict pretty soon unless new information comes to light, but I'll wait until we've had more like 24 hours of day.

And he does exactly this. He waits for Web to post and then, posts reasons why he's not satisfied with the result, and then shoots.

On a superficial level both of these kills are similar: there's a stated intention to kill, then the kill. However, NJW's intended kill is interrupted by Tric killing Toony. The kill was pre-meditated and pre-announced, but a different scum kill disrupted it. If scum were planning behind the scenes for the sequence of bussing, then this makes no sense, right? I can only conclude that NJW is the human and Pref is the robot.

Pref and NJW have both been able to be more active in the last few days than I have and so I'll let them both chime in before I pull the trigger. There's no danger from the robots, we just have to make the right call and shoot in time.

[prefuzek]

NJW

That was all very clearly explained, Pref, but I'm not sure who this analysis is for. Take your last post.

NQT and I know which of the two possibilities above could obtain if you're human. Whether we believe either of them to obtain is another question entirely, but nothing you've written is going to convince either of us that one rather than the other holds. Explaining your reasoning if you are already going to kill someone is utterly unnecessary at this point, while a bunch of potentially WIFOM-filled analysis leading to an ambivalent conclusion isn't going to put anyone under pressure.

For the post before that, you seem to be leaning a bit towards "I'm much more suspiscious of NQT", but as we near the two-day mark, you back down from that.  Apart from the beautiful situation you put Tric in, nothing you've written really creates any tension.

In the immortal words of David Byrne: you're talking a lot but you're not saying anything.

The analysis is for me, to get my thoughts in order, and for you, to help you get an idea of my thought process and make a decision based on that. If you and NQT were to engage with it and provide more clarification about your thoughts at the time, then it would also be helpful for scumhunting but I guess you don't want to do that.

What am I supposed to be saying? I was the only one posting at that point. And when there's three players left I don't think it's too much to expect that people engage with my posts even if I don't address specific questions to them.

Pref: Are you thinking about shooting someone? Are you willing to?

Well it looks like I'll have to:

Pref: I think you're a robot. Shoot someone within 12 hours or I'll kill you.

I can only conclude that NJW is the human and Pref is the robot.

Pref and NJW have both been able to be more active in the last few days than I have and so I'll let them both chime in before I pull the trigger. There's no danger from the robots, we just have to make the right call and shoot in time.

Damn. Can't wait any longer for NQT. Everyone still wants one of the other players to shoot the other, regardless of alignment, but I think I'm in a position to demand it.

Pref. The toothless questions, pointless analysis posts, killing someone generally held to be suspicious at the last point a robot could shoot at. Not a great look.

But NQT hasn't provided enough content for me to believe he's  human. I don't really want to hand the game over because someone on the other team is absent. I'll trust my instincts this far:


Pref: I think you're a robot. Shoot someone within 12 hours or I'll kill you.

I think this is a bad ultimatum. There's no reason to kill me early on the final day and you don't have the confidence to back it up. Why are your main reasons for voting me based on my actions today rather than the rest of the game (where more concrete interactions can be found)? Why set up this ultimatum before NQT even posts and you don't know when he will?

NQT, you continue to be the most passive player here. Why? How do you expect this to help you win?

[NJW2000]

Pref:

It wasn't an ultimatum I particularly wanted to make, but I wasn't certain we'd see any more content from NQT, and it was the last chance to make something happen without shooting. Still don't know what you mean by early - there's fewer than 24 hours left, right? I have to sleep in like eight hours.

I made it towards you for two reasons. One was that I attached a greater probability to you being a robot than NQT, and the other was that I was more certain you'd post. I did not make the judgement based mainly on concrete interactions in the rest of the day because a great deal of the interactions may have been created by robots and may or may not have been coordinated. The ultimatum stands, in the absence of fairly exceptional developments.


NQT:

Well alright. As I've stated, there's no alignment combination in which I object to you killing NQT or vice versa. If you think someone's a robot, I do expect you to kill them.

[prefuzek]

I'm going to vote NQT in a couple hours if he doesn't show up, btw.

[NJW2000]

Within the next two hours and thirty minutes, otherwise I'll be shooting you. A pity this had to end so inelegantly, but so be it.

[notquitethere]

Pref, I'm not intending to be passive here: me being full aggro lost town the game last game. I don't want town players to make a rash choice: we have until the deadline to make the right call. Why did you only give Tric 12 hours to respond?