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[EuchreJack]

RE: Voting Magma Mater and tracker.

First, between the 2 mafia players and 1 Power Role, I think they've slipped that there is a tracker instead of a jailkeeper.  I don't know, I'm neither, but notice throughout the game the extensive discussion about the tracker, and the minimal, almost non-existent discussion about the jailkeeper.  Jailkeeper is about as complicated as tracker, so if the above three thought one was in the game, one of them would have wanted to get some discussion going on it.

Now that I've established that we're probably in a Tracker scenario, note that tracker must not only pick mafia, but pick the mafia that is doing the night kill.  With two mafia, its a 50/50 shot to catch the one in two mafia that is actually making the kill.  No town player can predict whom within Pref and Magma would make the kill.  So with two mafia it is a coin flip, a 50/50 shot of learning something useful.  Assuming, for the sake of argument that whomever IS the tracker has actually narrowed down the scum team.

Finally, if town can eliminate one scum, then the tracker simply has to guess right on the remaining scum, whom would be in a 5 player game and probably take the kill.  Or not, if they think they can survive another day and push a mislynch.

[FallacyofUrist]

I do agree with Roden that I'm not going to have much of an impact on the game if I don't make a good attempt at finding the hackers among us. So I'm going to aim to make at least one big effortful post tonight. Maybe more. Letting y'all know in advance so I feel bound to get to doing it.

Also, it's very likely that whenever the power role claims, they're going to end up shot next if it's not the final Day. Have to keep that in mind.

[Magma Mater]

Guess what Roden? I'm going to help you discuss the FOU/Web-Magma pairing!

Everyone should be aware of the evidence against.  They've been at each other's throats since D1.  Although that started when FOU replaced Web, not before.

Spoiler: Magma's First Reads List (click to show/hide)

Magma Mater - would you prefer a doctor or a bullet-proof in this setup?

Can I choose neither? 
I'd prefer bulletproof though, since I'd be able to play like vanilla.
Why did you ask this question?


Currently, my reads look something like this:
Roden likely town.
Blue slight town.
EuchreJack very slightly town. I like the tone of his posts even though the content is not great.

prefuzek I have a slight wolf read on due to the post where he accuses hedgerow of going for a policy lynch on Euchre. I also really dislike the accusatory tone loaded into the "how do you know what the hackers are going to do" question toward hedgerow in the same post. It seemed clear to me that hedgerow was only making a supposition, the purpose of asking this question is probably just to make a backhanded accusation.

Toony I have a slight wolf read on as well. Earlier in the day, after I asked him if he's a closed book, he responded that no, he tends to spill all of his thoughts on things. Given that, I'd expect him to be less resistant to sharing his reads. As it is, I have no idea whom he suspects since his main line of inquisition seems to end in EuchreJack confirming that yes, he was acknowledging prefuzek's accusation as true.

Web is not included.

Spoiler: Web's First Reads List (click to show/hide)

@Webadict: Please promise not to Chinese Fire Drill.  This is a newbie game, and not a good place to be doing a Chinese Fire Drill.  Please? 

Why me? I would probably promise that, but I would end up breaking it eventually. I'll give a rough "maybe".

Anyway, since I'm feeling a bit better, initial feelings are:

Magma Mater - Super blathery but also super Town. Probing for answers. Enter the pocket.
EuchreJack - Very Town. Sheeping the right answers.
hedgerow - Hmm... Town. Call it a hunch. I would explain why, but only if hedge asks. The pocket easily fits two.
Roden - Townlean. Against the BT strat for what feels like legitimate reasons. Is that even a good reason to trust someone is Town? Maybe. Still gonna do it.
Rolan7 - I forgot everything I read from them.
BluarianKnight - Scumlean. Absolutely no reason. Okay, maybe also because bias.
ToonyMan - Was Townlean until they didn't like EuchreJack's reasoning for BluarianKnight, which is really baffling and super passive. Give me better.

Magma is Super Townie.  Magma had been getting some good townie cred before, but not SUPER.  Web gave Magma the push.
I'll just note that Web would then point Magma out to Toonyman, then remove them from the pocket.  Not sure the significance, but I think it is worth mentioning.

Now, everyone figures Magma can't be partners with FOU because Magma put the first vote on FOU on D1.  And that suspicion has in fact dogged FOU ever since.

But was FOU in any real danger?  FOU joins the voting on Hedgerow, and Town does a mislynch.  I think the timing shows some sort of coordination.  And the whole time, FOU is saying "Good job Magma, this guy is definitely Town, keep up the good work".

Is it "solid"? I dunno.  It's what I got for now.  Maybe others can build or destroy this theory.  I don't hold this theory to be sacred, this is hypothesis that needs to be tested.

You get a couple of things wrong here.
When I placed my vote on FoU (which was the second vote, not the first), the vote count was:

(2) FallacyofUrist - prefuzek, Magma Mater
(1) EuchreJack - hedgerow
(1) hedgerow - Roden
(1) Rolan7 - ToonyMan
(4) Not Voting - Rolan7, BluarianKnight, EuchreJack, FallacyofUrist

I don't think you can argue that FoU wasn't in danger here.

[Magma Mater]

RE: Voting Magma Mater and tracker.

First, between the 2 mafia players and 1 Power Role, I think they've slipped that there is a tracker instead of a jailkeeper.  I don't know, I'm neither, but notice throughout the game the extensive discussion about the tracker, and the minimal, almost non-existent discussion about the jailkeeper.  Jailkeeper is about as complicated as tracker, so if the above three thought one was in the game, one of them would have wanted to get some discussion going on it.

Now that I've established that we're probably in a Tracker scenario, note that tracker must not only pick mafia, but pick the mafia that is doing the night kill.  With two mafia, its a 50/50 shot to catch the one in two mafia that is actually making the kill.  No town player can predict whom within Pref and Magma would make the kill.  So with two mafia it is a coin flip, a 50/50 shot of learning something useful.  Assuming, for the sake of argument that whomever IS the tracker has actually narrowed down the scum team.

Finally, if town can eliminate one scum, then the tracker simply has to guess right on the remaining scum, whom would be in a 5 player game and probably take the kill.  Or not, if they think they can survive another day and push a mislynch.

The moderator is a newbie too and has slipped multiple times that we're in the tracker setup.

[Magma Mater]

I don't see the point in not just voting now tbh. Theoretically, sure, town odds are better to vote no lynch. But in reality all it'll do is cross me off the list and you'll all just be in the same place tomorrow. If a Tracker speaks up they can be safely counter claimed by scum. And in all honesty, if both Jack and Toony are town as I suspect, I don't trust Jack not to make an emotional/rage vote against Toony. The entirety of this game is proof that town!Jack would absolutely do that.

While it's true the mafia could CC the Tracker, that still confirms one and only one between the two is mafia.

That's what makes it a crap shoot for me. God forbid this happens between Jack and Pref, as town is just screwed at that point because of how unreadable they are.

I just don't think there's any way FoU isn't scum at this point. Like, yeah, Magma appears to be guaranteed scum going by PoE. But FoU's posts are comparable to porn acting in terms of believability. And when I accused him of scum slipping, he didn't even react to it. Wouldn't town at the very least ask for me to point out which post I'm referring to? Wouldn't town try to defend themself? All he did was ignore and try to bury the claim. That reads like a scum move to me.

Fine, then I'll help you out.

MAGMA MATER

Also, I'm NOT the tracker or the Jailkeeper.  Happy now?

You need to unvote. And you need to stop encouraging other people to vote. I'm town so if you and Roden vote for me and the team is pref / FoU (like I suspect) then we'll lose and pref won't even have to follow through with the ISO he promised us like 3 days ago.
The correct play is to no-lynch and give the tracker another shot at catching a wolf. We've already been screwed by the modkill on Rolan, and we've been screwed by hedgerow refusing to claim or save himself by voting FoU. We don't need to screw ourselves further by playing stupidly.

[ToonyMan]

First, between the 2 mafia players and 1 Power Role, I think they've slipped that there is a tracker instead of a jailkeeper.  I don't know, I'm neither, but notice throughout the game the extensive discussion about the tracker, and the minimal, almost non-existent discussion about the jailkeeper.

Magma is right, the moderator has made it pretty obvious that it's the Tracker and not Jailkeeper.

...I'm also going to pretend you're WIFOMing the mafia with this statement. I'm like 90% sure Jack is a PR from what I've seen in the game so far.

[EuchreJack]

PR is short for Power Role, or a role that has an ability.

In this setup the possible town PRs are Jailkeeper, Cop, Doctor, 1-shot Bulletproof, and Tracker. For mafia they could have a Roleblocker and that's it.

  I sure wish I was the bulletproof townie.

Saw this while re-reading, this post makes me die inside.

Yeah, the more I read the Hedgerow posts, the more I realize they were trying to hint at being the Bulletproof, but too afraid to say so.  It sucks, but we can't win them all.

Huh? Didn't you claim you already knew they were town, both before and after the lynch?

I feel like I need to clarify this.  I read Hedgerow as town before the lynch because all the newbie mistakes that caused them to be lynched as scum were the exact same newbie mistakes I made as Town.  I was basically looking at myself from last game, and/or the one-two before that.

I had NO idea that Hedgerow was a 1-shot Bulletproof, until after the flip, when several of Hedgerow's posts started to make sense from that viewpoint.

[prefuzek]

Sorry everyone - I really wasn't in the mafia mood yesterday. Still not really, but I'm going to try to get a good post in yet tonight.

[EuchreJack]

Sorry everyone - I really wasn't in the mafia mood yesterday. Still not really, but I'm going to try to get a good post in yet tonight.

If nothing else, give us your POE.

@Toonyman: What is POE? I thought it was Person of Interest, but I'm having some trouble with the concept.  Is it one person or several?
correctly[/i] be doing it.

[EuchreJack]

Sorry everyone - I really wasn't in the mafia mood yesterday. Still not really, but I'm going to try to get a good post in yet tonight.

If nothing else, give us your POE.

@Toonyman: What is POE? I thought it was Person of Interest, but I'm having some trouble with the concept.  Is it one person or several?
I know we're supposed to be doing it, and maybe I already am, but I'd like to know how to correctly be doing it.

[prefuzek]

Haven't done the full ISO yet but something early on jumped out - ToonyMan and FoU are not both scum because of Web and Toony's interactions early D1. I think someone else pointed this out before but the reread has made that very clear to me. Unfortunately that means that one of my supposedly-strong townreads is wrong.

ATM I still think FoU is the more likely scum out of the two but I'll wait till I'm done reading to make a judgment.

[prefuzek]

Hm, as I'm developing reads, I'm thinking - is it better to wait until D3 to post cases on people? If we clear someone as town they're going to get NK'd. But if we make our reads unclear (since we're nolynching anyway) then there's the possibility we get one of our top cases eliminated for us.

I'm still going to form cases on people today regardless.

[ToonyMan]

@Toonyman: What is POE? I thought it was Person of Interest, but I'm having some trouble with the concept.  Is it one person or several?
I know we're supposed to be doing it, and maybe I already am, but I'd like to know how to correctly be doing it.

POE stands for Process of Elimination, it's a way to find scum by the logic of, "I don't suspect Player A, B, and C so the mafia must be Player D and E." You're removing players you don't suspect which leaves a group of players you are willing to vote or look into. I recommend to also scrutinize the players you suspect and not just leave it to POE as you should be voting players you actually suspect confidently and not just because they're the only ones you have no strong town read on.

While we're at it, WIFOM stands for Wine In Front of Me, named after the famous scene in The Princess Bride (which is a good movie, everyone should watch it) where someone is asked where the poison is located in two wine drinks, one in front of each of them, and the person being questioned gets caught in their own mind game logic as they try to determine which cup the poison would be in. When you're trying to guess what your opponent would have done, that's WIFOM basically.

The MafiaWiki is a pretty good resource for this.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Commonly_Used_Abbreviations

[prefuzek]

Random note: FoU had awful reads on D1. The only possible scum that he didn't read as town is Roden and I don't think Roden is scum.

D1 reread complete. Thoughts: Toony is far more town and Magma is far less town than I had thought. Roden is mega-town. Jack is probably town. So, my POE is that Roden/Jack/Toony are town and FoU/Magma are scum. I'm actually leaning towards a Magma lynch tomorrow because I think it's more likely that Toony is playing a good scum game than Roden or Jack, and I don't think that Toony/FoU is a possible team. I will give some evidence for Magma being scummy tomorrow.

For now,

Spoiler: D1 Evidence for Town Toony (click to show/hide)

@Roden:

@Roden:
I think you're right about Jack. Although I'm a bit miffed my reads are wrong, this definitely looks like a flaying townie now which I suppose is the exact info we need. This makes Web/FoU look better if true although not as cleared.

@Hedgerow:
I don't understand your case against Roden. Also you edited your post again.

In this case, do you think Hedge is our best bet if we were to wagon somebody? I don't think he's playing like a newbie town. I'm trusting you because of your reaction to Jack, you're trying to get him to calm down and stop flooding the thread and you'd have no reason to do that as mafia. Jack feels like a really easy mis-elim at this point.

I think Hedgerow is a better wagon than Jack currently, they're openly scummy but I don't think it's a likely mafia hit. I'm really not feeling Roden/Jack/FoU right now so if we take those players out we're left with Magma/Pref/Blu/Rolan.

That would leave the two mafia inside Magma/Pref/Blu/Rolan. Rolan could be with anyone. Would have to look at the other possibilities.

Do you see anything that looks convincing in there?

Who I Want To Vote:
I don't know how I feel about a Hedgerow elimination. I'm okay with it based on what I've seen of them, but it's frustrating if Rolan is mafia. I think I want Rolan or Hedgerow for today. I don't want a FoU lynch currently but I would honestly prefer Rolan over Hedgerow right now since Hedgerow is so openly wolfing it doesn't make sense to me.

What's your case on hedgerow and why are you townreading FoU? I'd be okay with a hedgerow lynch today but FoU seems better.

Hedgerow is only discussing mechanics in this game and their reads are ridiculous. They claim Roden and Jack are the mafia and that everyone else seems normal. I don't know how they think that's okay. It's so outrageous I don't actually want to vote them which is hilarious. It's arguably a better town read than one-poster Rolan.

I'm townreading FoU because I'm clever and I've re-read Webadict's posts. I don't think mafia!Webadict freaks out at people like that as mafia and quits the game. I know it's bad form to discuss subs, but that's how I feel. Are you spooked now that FoU is posting since they're back home? Who are you more against being lynched, Bluarian or Rolan?

In these posts Toony seems like he genuinely has no idea who the scum is, but he's thinking things through systematically.

@Hedgerow:
You need to claim since you're the top wagon and day ends soon. If you're actually a PR we don't want to vote you.

I know that Toony's the vet and could easily fake this as scum but I don't think he did, especially because of this next post:

What do you mean? If Hedgerow claims a PR I would rather vote anybody else over them. We might not have time to validate the claim but...

1. If they're town we are more likely to hit mafia today.
2. If they're mafia they will be outed tomorrow once we validate since the trade is worth it for town.

Nothing jumped out at me as being super scummy.

It's not as much as I'd like and Toony's D2 posts have seemed town to me too, but I don't have the time now to make a post about them. Reading through and writing posts is slow work for me

[FallacyofUrist]

Right. This post is titled Shots in the Dark. I am greatly confused, so in an attempt to alleviate that, I'm going to ask two hypothetical scenarios. Namely: What if ToonyMan was mafia? And what if EuchreJack was mafia?

Bussing in this setup is also pretty iffy since you'll be all alone with at least one town PR (power role) around.

Are you planning to lead town like usual?

Yes. I would also expect more standard play from me.

EuchreJack.

I'd say the BP is irrelevant.  The hackers are going to win you over with flirtatious misinformation and forked reasoning.  We should eliminate anyone who buys into the townie-killing narrative, first.

(Lol)
In hindsight, hedgerow was really trying to hide their power role, huh.
Here's a question for you, actually. Is it scummy, at this point, to post speculation on who has the last town power role? Because I think I know who it is. And of course that person must be town, so I find myself in the position of needing to fake a worse read on them so the scum don't catch on. I might have spoiled it already by saying this much, unfortunately, but I think it's more valuable to share this fact so I don't create confusion.

Pretty sure Roden is town, why? They're openly discussing ways for town to game the Matrix6 system. I believe a mafia player would be hesitant to talk about that idea tbh. Maybe mafia!Roden would, but I'm not feeling it. Their confidence is convincing me they're town.

Toony I have a slight wolf read on as well. Earlier in the day, after I asked him if he's a closed book, he responded that no, he tends to spill all of his thoughts on things. Given that, I'd expect him to be less resistant to sharing his reads. As it is, I have no idea whom he suspects since his main line of inquisition seems to end in EuchreJack confirming that yes, he was acknowledging prefuzek's accusation as true.

ToonyMan - Was Townlean until they didn't like EuchreJack's reasoning for BluarianKnight, which is really baffling and super passive. Give me better.

Good grief, was wubadubblub buddying Magma?

Webadict - pocketing everyone, also Jack gives strange reasonings for why they're town here

Are you seriously scum-reading webadict for saying that he's putting people in his pocket? I don't think that's what that phrase means, and him simply saying it certainly doesn't make it true. What am I missing here?

@Toony: I can pocket however many people I want.

This is not a great response, though.

Uh. Hm.

ToonyMan - not playing normally (because of vet status?). Scum lean

Overall guess: 1 scum between EuchreJack/hedgerow and 1 scum between Toonyman/webadict/BluarianKnight.

Are you planning to lead town like usual?

Yes. I would also expect more standard play from me.

What is Toony's standard play?

2. He said earlier that he plans on leading the town. I know that this is subjective, but I don't feel like that's what's happening with Toony right now. Looking through his posts, all of his votes have been weak calls for lurkers to post. There's no rallying cry, there is no attempt to organize town onto the person he feels is most likely to be a wolf. The feeling I get is that Toony is happy to sit back and let the day play out as it has - town is disorganized and we barely have any votes out with so little time left in the day. I think part of it is that he wants to shade EuchreJack without committing to a vote there, potentially to allow others to take the heat if Jack is town.

I feel like this is no longer true, considering his behavior Day 2.

So I mean, no matter how we look at it, if we have a BP - and we do have a BP, I imagine - because someone went on and on about it.  The alternative is something else entirely, and depends entirely on how they eliminated the choices.

This is still hilarious in retrospect.

Scummy
Hedgerow - blatantly scummy, if they're not a hit then I think the two mafia are in Magma/Blu/Pref/Rolan

Did you ever clarify what you meant by 'blatantly scummy'? Because in retrospect, that doesn't look as good. Looks more like malice - or mistaking hedgerow's PR tells for scum tells.

So yeah, that's my look through Day 1 aimed at Toony.

Overall conclusion: Either I can trust him completely or I can't trust him at all. Leaning towards the latter, though I admit I may be lying. Or just wrong.