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[EuchreJack]

@Toonyman [Veteran Player]: I don't think I've ever played D2 before.  Could you tell me generally what we are supposed to be doing?

Let's play a game within a game.

Everyone, join me please.

Pretend you're mafia. If you're already mafia then just be honest.

Answer these question:
1. Who is your mafia partner in this world?
2. What is your reasoning for killing Bluarian on N1?

I'll answer first.

My mafia partner would be Roden.
We kill Bluarian instead of Jack or Magma because we can just push for a Pref or Rolan lynch on D2. With Rolan being modkilled we change our POE to Pref/Magma. It is an easy victory.

1) My partner is Prefuzek.  Notice how I agreed with his voting on me? 
FOU/Web CAN'T be my partner, as most of the so called associations others see would have occurred in Scumchat.  Frankly, if FOU/Web were my scumpartner, I wouldn't have asked Toonyman one question, I would have asked FOU/Web in scumchat.  Although, you can see a natural reason why Web up and quit if we were scumpartners.
You can imagine that FOU/Web would have successfully told me to shut up at least one time that I in fact continue posting.
Can't be Toonyman, because every discussion we've had about good play would have occured in scumchat instead of here, and frankly I'd be playing better.
Can't be Magma Mater, because we'd be having similar discussions that I've had with Toonyman, and I'd be playing better.
Prefuzek, on the other hand, would be like "eh, seems to be working, whatever you think is best"
We'd be a relatively inexperienced scumteam, so I'd be seeking advice from Toonyman that we could both use.
Can't be Roden, as I don't think we could pull off the D1 argument without scripting it in advance.  The timing is off, mostly.

2) I didn't want to kill Blue because I thought Blue was a good target for a mislynch and I thought I could complete my vote on them.  I wanted to kill Toonyman.  But Pref has a great argument for eliminating Blue, and I went along with it.  Probably had something to do with framing Toonyman, FOU, and/or Magma.  I would have bought into that.

Pref would have been the one arguing that we could lynch Toonyman.  I'd be arguing that they're crazy, they would say "well, maybe we kill Toonyman D2?", and then I'd back down.

[Roden]

@Toony: Are you absolutely sure Pref/FoU can't be a scum pair?

No. It's not likely though.

Can you explain why?

I did.

In my big Pref ISO post right above your post here. Pref is more likely to be partners with Magma or Roden than FoU.

Toony...

Ok, but why? I understand who your pairs are, but "likely/unlikely" tells us literally nothing. It's a probability with nothing attached to it. Even reading your ISO deep dives doesn't really explain it. Even FoU says Pref is their most likely partner.

Toony, please don't say scummy shit like this now. The only viable way I'm scum is if Jack is my partner, because otherwise I mis-elim him Day 1.

This isn't true Roden. Your possible partners are Magma and Pref. You're not mafia with Jack because your attack and then backing off looked natural. It's literally the opposite of what you're saying here.

What are you talking about here? If you think my attack and back off looks natural then I should be confirmed town in your eyes. If it looks unnatural then it's scum theater. And scum doesnt back off of an easy mis-elim then vote Hedgerow who would be an easy Day 2 mis-elim. Pairing me with anyone but Jack makes zero sense.

Nothing you're saying here makes sense. :/

Toony is also saying that it can't be me / FoU. Why are you ignoring that?

I'm not, because that's exactly why I think you're the optimal vote if we trust Toony's reads. If FoU can't be paired with you or Pref, the pairing by default has to be you and Pref. If you think this is wrong, then you also have to think either me or Toony are scum here.

If it has to be Magma and Pref then what's the problem with voting Pref first?

God, you're really make my town read on you falter.

Any reason you're against Magma here? Like, any at all? Because your own town reads show that Magma/Pref should be the obvious pair. You town read me. You town read Jack. You don't think FoU can be paired with neither Pref or Magma. So what's the issue?

Magma is the easiest PoE choice going by your own reads. I don't understand why you're so against it.

@Toonyman [Veteran Player]: I don't think I've ever played D2 before.  Could you tell me generally what we are supposed to be doing?

Let's play a game within a game.

Everyone, join me please.

Pretend you're mafia. If you're already mafia then just be honest.

Answer these question:
1. Who is your mafia partner in this world?
2. What is your reasoning for killing Bluarian on N1?

Huh, interesting approach. Actually, I like it.

My partner would be Prefuzek, and we killed Bluarian because we thought he was a likely power role.

Blu never even hinted at having a power role though. At least, as far as I can tell. Can you show me a post where that could've made you come to that conclusion?

[Roden]

Idk. This game doesnt feel as easy to solve as it did this morning. I have no idea who to trust at this point because my town reads keep going out of their way to make their posts look scummy. I just don't get it.

Toony, it's gotten to to point that I might actually vote you tomorrow. I really hope you haven't been hard pocketing me all this time, because I don't want to be hear "I told you so" in the post game for trusting you too much.

[Roden]

I'll do the scum questions later. I need to step back and think for a bit.

[ToonyMan]

@Roden:

Ok, but why? I understand who your pairs are, but "likely/unlikely" tells us literally nothing. It's a probability with nothing attached to it. Even reading your ISO deep dives doesn't really explain it. Even FoU says Pref is their most likely partner.

I'll point it out the biggest reasoning this time since I'm at a computer:

#240 - Attacks Toony. Is okay with a Hedgerow lynch, but FoU seems better. Keeps voting FoU.

I don't think a Pref/FoU mafia team risks a FoU lynch actually happening on D1 of this Matrix6 setup. The town PRs would eat the last mafia alive if not the players themselves.

In addition:

Pref had Web/FoU as a null read up until this point, this is an unlikely mafia pair move in my opinion.
Pref currently wants to vote me or FoU for lylo. (Although in this case it could be a distancing strategy, the fact FoU doesn't have Pref in their PoE is odd to me, but maybe they're a third pick?)

Magma is the easiest PoE choice going by your own reads. I don't understand why you're so against it.

If you trust me and Jack, then the mafia are inside Magma/Pref/FoU from your POV.

Pref is the best hit here because Magma/FoU is the least likely pairing in this group of three players, does that make sense? Voting Magma first and then deciding between Pref and FoU is riskier than voting Pref first and then deciding between Magma and FoU.

I'll be doing a Web/FoU ISO next, but if you can help me see a Magma/FoU world instead that would help greatly in me deciding whether Magma or Pref should be voted first.

[ToonyMan]

Peoples' reads (esp. ToonyMan's) make no sense.

Toony...
[...]
Nothing you're saying here makes sense. :/

[EuchreJack]

@Toonyman [Veteran Player]: I don't think I've ever played D2 before.  Could you tell me generally what we are supposed to be doing?

Let's play a game within a game.

Everyone, join me please.

Pretend you're mafia. If you're already mafia then just be honest.

Answer these question:
1. Who is your mafia partner in this world?
2. What is your reasoning for killing Bluarian on N1?

Huh, interesting approach. Actually, I like it.

My partner would be Prefuzek, and we killed Bluarian because we thought he was a likely power role.

@Toonyman: Makes sure to include this in your ISO.  I'm sure you were going to do so, but I want to know whether you think this makes sense.
I buy into the theory that mafia!Web would have deducted I was Town and placed themselves on a team with me to avoid suspicion.
But as I noted, you shouldn't buy into that team, because under that scenario, I would have been able to ask advice from Web/FOU instead of you.
My overall incompetence can only be attributable to a team-up with Pref or Roden, and you're town reading Roden.  Pref is your POE irregardless of team.
Does this make any sense?  I honestly don't know at this point.  I think it does, but everything I do pisses you off, so I'm probably just making things worse.
Sorry about that.

[EuchreJack]

@Toonyman [Veteran Player]: I don't think I've ever played D2 before.  Could you tell me generally what we are supposed to be doing?

Let's play a game within a game.

Everyone, join me please.

Pretend you're mafia. If you're already mafia then just be honest.

Answer these question:
1. Who is your mafia partner in this world?
2. What is your reasoning for killing Bluarian on N1?

Huh, interesting approach. Actually, I like it.

My partner would be Prefuzek, and we killed Bluarian because we thought he was a likely power role.

@Toonyman: Makes sure to include this in your ISO.  I'm sure you were going to do so, but I want to know whether you think this explanation of Blue's death from FOU makes sense.  And does the partner analysis make sense

I buy into the theory that mafia!Web would have deducted I was Town and placed themselves on a team with me to avoid suspicion.
But as I noted, you shouldn't buy into that team of Web/FOU and myself, because under that scenario, I would have been able to ask advice from Web/FOU instead of you.
My overall incompetence can only be attributable to a team-up with Pref or Roden, and you're town reading Roden.  Pref is your POE irregardless of team.
Does this make any sense?  I honestly don't know at this point.  I think it does, but everything I do pisses you off, so I'm probably just making things worse.
Sorry about that.

Fixed

[ToonyMan]

Any reason you're against Magma here? Like, any at all? Because your own town reads show that Magma/Pref should be the obvious pair. You town read me. You town read Jack. You don't think FoU can be paired with neither Pref or Magma. So what's the issue?

Voting players you don't actually have a scum read on is wrong and incorrect town play. This is voting players based on pure POE, which can work and is a valid strategy in some setups, but not in this game. Not in my newbie game.

1. Town reading Roden/Jack/FoU does not make the mafia team Magma/Pref. I could be wrong, checking both sides is the best way to come to a decision. This is why I will be doing ISOs of players during each evening we have this MYLO to play around in. I started with Pref, doing FoU next, will likely do Magma third. If you're not checking why these players are scum I don't consider that good town play.

2. Magma was the most town read player on D1 by a mile. Pref was at the bottom. I believe this is a totally valid reason to decide Pref over Magma for voting first.

3. I expected a Jack N1 kill if Magma was mafia, both Jack and Magma were giving Bluarian the stink eye at the end of Day 1.

4. Magma reverses their read of me after swallowing the modkill. This is an extremely bold move for mafia!Magma to make as they're now buddying their top suspect for D1 based on mod meta reasons.

Don't get me wrong. I believe it could be Magma/Pref and this is a bus strategy after seeing the Rolan modkill, but Magma is playing a solid game. I'll have more thoughts when I do the ISO.

Oh, by the way...

An ISO is an isolated read/case of a player where you read through each of that player's posts in the game on their own and judge them. There are also multi-ISOs where you do isolated reads among multiple players.

[EuchreJack]

Oh, by the way...

An ISO is an isolated read/case of a player where you read through each of that player's posts in the game on their own and judge them. There are also multi-ISOs where you do isolated reads among multiple players.

Oh thank god you said that Toonyman.  I was going to ask, but I didn't think your nerves could survive one more question from me.

[EuchreJack]

Would it help if I review FOU/Magma posts and create a list of connecting posts?

[ToonyMan]

@FoU and Jack:

My partner would be Prefuzek, and we killed Bluarian because we thought he was a likely power role.

1) My partner is Prefuzek.

Guys.

You're killing me.

Neither of you think your most likely mafia partner would be the other, what the fuck??

Both of you have spent this entire game only fueling my believe of my first reads list.

@FoU:
Tell me exactly why Jack is a solid town read for you and why Pref is a more likely partner than Jack.

@Jack:
Tell me exactly why FoU is a solid town read for you and why Pref is a more likely partner than FoU.

Oh, by the way...

An ISO is an isolated read/case of a player where you read through each of that player's posts in the game on their own and judge them. There are also multi-ISOs where you do isolated reads among multiple players.

Oh thank god you said that Toonyman.  I was going to ask, but I didn't think your nerves could survive one more question from me.

You know why I don't like this attitude one single bit?

This is exactly how mafia!Jack would act while laughing in scum chat. I am 100% certain.

[ToonyMan]

Would it help if I review FOU/Magma posts and create a list of connecting posts?

No, first...

I want a detailed reasoning why FoU is so town to you, but also isn't your top hypothetical mafia partner.

[ToonyMan]

For the record, here are my total town tells for Jack and FoU so far:

Jack:
They were out for Roden's blood while on death's row during D1.

FoU:
Web town read Jack at the start of the game. This is likely accurate if Web is town.


Neither of these have to do with them reading me as a player, unlike Roden and Magma.

Yes, both Jack and FoU read me the player as town usually and seem to trust me, but that's easy to fake and unlike Roden and Magma I don't have any solid reasonings for why they're actually a town player town reading me. I have far better reasoning to trust Roden and Magma currently in that respect. If I just had a single solid town tell for Pref I would be out for their heads. Unfortunately, I didn't find any big town tells while doing Pref's ISO. I really wish I did. Please help me Pref.

[ToonyMan]

Toony, please don't say scummy shit like this now. The only viable way I'm scum is if Jack is my partner, because otherwise I mis-elim him Day 1.

This isn't true Roden. Your possible partners are Magma and Pref. You're not mafia with Jack because your attack and then backing off looked natural. It's literally the opposite of what you're saying here.

What are you talking about here? If you think my attack and back off looks natural then I should be confirmed town in your eyes. If it looks unnatural then it's scum theater. And scum doesnt back off of an easy mis-elim then vote Hedgerow who would be an easy Day 2 mis-elim. Pairing me with anyone but Jack makes zero sense.

Your attack and backing off of Jack looked natural and is another town tell I have for you. I don't believe you could be partners because your "scum theater" was very convincing if you were both mafia. Does that make sense? I think we are looking at this situation completely differently from each other. Why does mafia!Roden bother to attack mafia!Jack in the first place and if true, it looked natural and convincing to me. Your attacks on each other looked very natural which implies town vs town or town vs mafia, not mafia vs mafia.

Roden has three main town tells for me:

1. They openly discussed gaming the Matrix6 system with the BP claiming at the start, I feel mafia would be a bit hesitant to talk about it like that.
(this is also why Pref was town leaning Roden in their first reads list)
2. Their Gnosia note on their town read of me felt incredibly genuine and subtle, I don't think mafia would have thought of it or bothered.
3. They were getting second thoughts about Jack and switched to Hedgerow, looked natural to me and mafia probably wouldn't bother.

I basically gave town read points to both you and Jack after seeing that part of D1 since it looked believable from both sides, independently.