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[FallacyofUrist]

Heya, everybody. Signing in. Just to note, I'm dealing with an internship and two college courses this summer. So my posting style will be a bit adapted - I'll be focusing on fewer posts, but with more content present in them. Don't expect me to post in mornings weekdays, either, since I work from 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM. I may or may not be able to post during my lunch break, though it'll be from my phone.

Now, that said.

First things first: I'm not going to play like Webadict. Or at least I'll try not to. His style isn't my style. I don't see anything wrong with analyzing his behavior, but I'm not sure how much you'll get out of it. Still, worth a shot.

Now, I'll comment on the first ten pages of this game.

4. Chaotic. I typically get scum read because of this, but I partially do this to draw out mafia who want an easy mis elim. But I also do this so people have a harder time reading me for meta tells from past games. Despite this I'm actually kinda sensitive to getting scum read lol, but I only ever seem to get scum read over random comments I make rather than my actions. I want to try to find out why this is.

Not a bad tactic. Scum tend to prefer the easy executions. That's why it's important to be aware of bandwagoning and such.

I agree with this, to an extent. I think that we have to be careful about targeting some of the quieter players just because they're quiet.
For example (I'm assuming this translates to the forum format as well), I have a friend I play with who is almost always dead quiet. As a result, they're almost always a candidate for elimination later on. What I've noticed is that the wolves like to keep this person around, and push them on one of the final days if it'll get them the win. In general, I think going for the quiet person is a really easy push to make because nobody can debate the fact that they've been quiet. Usually a wolf can just say, "Well I think everyone else is town," which is easy for them because they know everyone else is town.
I'm not saying that we should ignore quiet players, but I definitely do not think it's a reliable reason to wolf-read somebody, and I encourage other townies to look further than "they're quiet" when trying to root out the wolves.

I like to ask 'how productive is someone's content'? Are they moving towards finding the scum? Someone can talk a lot and not do anything like this, or someone can talk only a little but have really insightful posts that indicate a traitor among us.

I played a bunch of games here many years ago, but I don't think I was very good back then. I've played a few games here lately and I think I'm better now but I still feel pretty inexperienced with forum mafia (I've played tons of hidden-role games in person). I'm happy when I'm a wolf because it's rarer. I'm a pretty calm and methodical player and don't do anything too unexpected usually.

You and BluarianKnight are scary good, imo.

I don't think it'd be easy for me to read Bluarian's scum/town alignment.

Also, I generally regard laziness as a scum tell, and will try not to blame others for accusing me on similar grounds.

Yes, I know this is unfair, but scum do in fact use claims of laziness, work, exhaustion, etc.  And they're sometimes just doing it to avoid outing themselves as scum.

Ergo, it is a tell.

It bears noting that EuchreJack is basically TricMagic. Except newer. I'd expect it to be easy to read them because of that?

Confirmed Town: EuchreJack - Let me see, yup still town
Slightly town: prefuzek - scumhunting and calling me out for not doing enough of it

Null team:
Roden.
Rolan7
Magma Mater
webadict
ToonyMan[Veteran Player]

Scum team:
BluarianKnight - Blue is always scum
hedgerow - Awaiting a response that might convince me they're not scum

This is pretty low-effort, and I'd vote a more experienced player for a reads list like this right away. Early reads list tend to look like attempts to curry favor. I'm not sure Jack would consider that, though.

Where's your read list Toonyman?

As such, townpoints for ToonyMan. If he pulled this Day 3 it'd be another story.

I personally don't like throwing down a reads list until closer towards the end of D1. I think the value of reads in the first 24 hours are not very high, but yes every player should share how they feel about every other player before the day is over. I haven't been a mentor before and I don't want to abuse green text much beyond mechanical advice.

I can add some individual reads though.

Pretty sure Roden is town, why? They're openly discussing ways for town to game the Matrix6 system. I believe a mafia player would be hesitant to talk about that idea tbh. Maybe mafia!Roden would, but I'm not feeling it. Their confidence is convincing me they're town.

Yesssss... Yes, my precious.

This doesn't feel like a newbie game at all.

Town Reads
Roden - reasoning here
BluarianKnight - reasoning here, if they are mafia then it's likely with Magma or Pref but I don't think it's likely currently

Weak Town Reads
Magma Mater - are we even in a newbie game? they're insanely proactive so I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt this isn't expert mafia play, and unlike Jack their posts don't make my mind melt
Prefuzek - has posted once, but the post was good

Neutral
Rolan - one time poster, feels slightly town
hedgerow - two time poster, have no read

Suspicious
EuchreJack - freaks the heck out when hedgerow votes them declaring that Hedgerow is likely mafia forming a bandwagon on townie Jack! I think they're spewing themselves as mafia currently so I guess they should keep posting for town's benefit
Webadict - pocketing everyone, also Jack gives strange reasonings for why they're town here

I recommend that players should vote people unless it would put them at L-1. So keep it at three votes max on someone right now, although you could say where you vote would be if it would put someone into L-1.

Okay fine. Less town points. Doesn't feel like long after you said you wouldn't do a reads list. I don't like the fact that you voted a neutral player instead of your two suspicious players either, but I like the rest of your play so far and I can see the value of doing that just to get things more in motion. There's value in energizing the town.

How much of your predecessor's posts do you take up as your own, or do you plan on "starting fresh"?

The latter. I'm not even going to invest much effort into trying to get inside Webadict's head. That path lies madness. And I'm crazy enough as is.

Also, now would be a good time for any players who haven't posted a reads list to post one.  Failure to do so, at this state, is scummy.

No.

And why's that?

Maybe I'll just sheep FOU.  They're a pretty solid player when Town.

I strongly advise being more paranoid. There's such a thing as too much paranoia, but you aren't there yet. At least do an analysis of my behavior before deciding to follow me.

Is there anything that's confusing you Rolan? I can help with stuff here as long as it's towards a town wincon. I'm not sure anybody else needs any guidance besides Hedgerow honestly. Magma and Roden are both posting well.

Oh, Toony, you know I'm terrible at mafia. Except when I'm not. Really it's a coin toss. Guide me, sensei. Lemme sheep you. Pretty please.

[Roden]

TOWN

Magma Mater- Very proactive, asks a lot of questions but they are good questions. By all accounts, they appear to be very pro-town. However, I could see a mafia play here where they try to have a very strong town start and coach their partner to answer questions as innocuously as possible. Specifically, the beginning RQS questions, since absolutely no one got tripped up by them. This isn't likely to be fair, but it's a possibility that I want to keep in mind as the game progresses. Overall though a strong town read.

ToonyMan- Has been doing what he can to be helpful and apply pressure on questionable posts. I understand he can be duplicitous but I think his ISO check on me indicates a town mind set.

BluarianKnight- This is a very light town lean since they don't have a lot of content yet. But what they do have so far is fine, since I haven't seen anything particularly scummy come from them yet.

NULL

Rolan7- Not enough posts to discern anything yet.

Prefuzek- Nothing feels town or mafia weighted atm. Feels like they're playing defensively/reactionary though. I had to reread their ISO since I couldn't remember their posts off hand. Not sure of they're intentionally trying to not stick out or not.

Webadict/FallacyofUrist- Just going off of my interaction with Web, I was leaning scum, but FOU reads a little better. I want to give them some time to play before I commit to a read.

SCUM LEAN

EuchreJack- He claims he's scum hunting, but I'm not really seeing it. His posts feel more like he just wants to show how town he is, but I also get a hint of being combative that doesn't seem like would come from town.

Hedgerow- Man their ISO is just weird. I don't see why they would stick out on purpose if they're mafia, but nonetheless I'm still not getting town vibes.

I don't think I can say I'm hard scum reading anyone yet. But as of now I think there's one mafia between Jack and Hedge. I don't think they're buddies though, and I think putting them on concurrent wagons will be more revealing than just poking inactive players with votes.

Vote: EuchreJack

[Magma Mater]

I just realized that we have less than 12 hours left in the day.

I'm going to vote for ToonyMan. There are a few inconsistencies in his posts:

1. I've mentioned this before, but it's worth mentioning again. Earlier, he described himself as being the type of person who spills all of his thoughts on things. I don't doubt that this is an accurate description of his town game. However, it's not how I'd describe his play here. For example, refusing to answer Euchre's calls for a reads list with a finger waggling gif, while funny, doesn't read like someone who is eager to be forthright. Even worse, he does end up posting a full reads list less than 24 hours later, after I called him out on this very behaviour. There's also a slight inconsistency with his reasoning for not posting a reads list. The reason he gives for refusing EuchreJack's request is this:

I personally don't like throwing down a reads list until closer towards the end of D1.

However, there were still about 46 hours until the end of D1 when he ended up posting his list - we were only halfway done the day. To me, this confirms that ToonyMan posted the reads list as a response to being called out, as opposed to it being a natural progression of his play.

2. He said earlier that he plans on leading the town. I know that this is subjective, but I don't feel like that's what's happening with Toony right now. Looking through his posts, all of his votes have been weak calls for lurkers to post. There's no rallying cry, there is no attempt to organize town onto the person he feels is most likely to be a wolf. The feeling I get is that Toony is happy to sit back and let the day play out as it has - town is disorganized and we barely have any votes out with so little time left in the day. I think part of it is that he wants to shade EuchreJack without committing to a vote there, potentially to allow others to take the heat if Jack is town.

3. His votes on lurkers are represented as pressure votes to get the person posting, but until recently there is no real attempt to engage Rolan. To me, this looks like a placeholder vote left for far too long.

I think the inconsistencies between what he's saying and what he's doing point strongly toward Toony being scum. I think he's accurately described his town play, but has not managed to live up to it. He's my preference for elimination today.

[Magma Mater]

EuchreJack- He claims he's scum hunting, but I'm not really seeing it. His posts feel more like he just wants to show how town he is, but I also get a hint of being combative that doesn't seem like would come from town.

I think that Euchre is scum hunting. He's pressured hedgerow, prefuzek, and ToonyMan. He's also following up on the questions he's asking and continuing to apply pressure in those places consistently. I don't think it's accurate to say that EuchreJack isn't scum hunting.

[EuchreJack]

2. He said earlier that he plans on leading the town. I know that this is subjective, but I don't feel like that's what's happening with Toony right now. Looking through his posts, all of his votes have been weak calls for lurkers to post. There's no rallying cry, there is no attempt to organize town onto the person he feels is most likely to be a wolf. The feeling I get is that Toony is happy to sit back and let the day play out as it has - town is disorganized and we barely have any votes out with so little time left in the day. I think part of it is that he wants to shade EuchreJack without committing to a vote there, potentially to allow others to take the heat if Jack is town.

Damn good point Magma Mater yet again!
However, I'm not really sure who to vote yet, honestly.  I can see the Toonyman vote, but I can seen non-scum reasons for Toonyman's behavior.  Need to think on it, and weight the other options.

@TricMagic: Both Toonyman and myself have requested a 24 hour extension, do we need a vote on that?  I think a single 24 hour extension would be appropriate under these circumstances.  I mean, there aren't even enough votes yet.

EXTENSION

[EuchreJack]

Also, now would be a good time for any players who haven't posted a reads list to post one.  Failure to do so, at this state, is scummy.

No.

FallacyofUrist is being scummy by not posting a reads list.  Claiming that he'd like to deny me the opportunity to sheep him is no excuse.

WHY must you post a reads list NOW?
Because on Day 2, Town will be utilizing the Reads list to track associations between players, after analyzing the Day 1 Lynch and Night 1 kill.  While Reads list are absolutely used and abused by Mafia to promote their own, they are primarily a Town Asset as they clearly show player associations.

Also, if FallacyofUrist truly believed that read lists were not VITAL, they would NOT have criticized me for my low-effort reads list.  Extra Scum points for FallacyofUrist for only referring to the first, inferior reads list, and totally ignoring the second, better reads list.

Don't be like Scummy FallacyofUrist, post your reads list!  You absolutely MUST post your reads list by end-of-day 1, at the absolute latest.

And because there have to be consequences for this flagrant failure to post read lists, FallacyofUrist/Webadict

[EuchreJack]

@TricMagic: Sorry to keep bothering you, but a votecount would be greatly appreciated, along with an update on possible extension.
Also, just an FYI that we'll be needing more frequent votecounts towards the End-of-Day.  You are my Hero!

[EuchreJack]

EuchreJack

@Prefuzek: Is it possible that neither Hedgerow nor myself are scum?

Yes. Why are you asking me these questions?

To answer your question, I'm scum-hunting you.
If neither Hedgerow nor myself are scum (as you admit is possible), then who is scum?

[EuchreJack]

If a BP doesn't exist and we have an outed Tracker like in your hypothetical situation, then that means we have a Doctor and no Roleblocker. Doctor then protects the Tracker in secret and we're pretty much set to win. It's not quite follow the cop, but it's a safer alternative since Doctor + Cop does have a Roleblocker.

I like this idea a lot. It's a bit game-y, but hey the wiki acknowledges it's not a perfect strategy either.

I'm not a one-shot Bulletproof Townie.

I saw that strat too but I don't want to rely on it unless it falls in our lap. It just feels a little lame, which is why I originally only brought up BP.

So here you're discussing not wanting to rely upon a strategy that could be effective "unless it falls in our lap".  You describe it as "lame", why is that?

EuchreJack- He claims he's scum hunting, but I'm not really seeing it. His posts feel more like he just wants to show how town he is, but I also get a hint of being combative that doesn't seem like would come from town.

Where did I claim to be scumhunting?  Quote please!
Why can't town be combative?

[Roden]

If a BP doesn't exist and we have an outed Tracker like in your hypothetical situation, then that means we have a Doctor and no Roleblocker. Doctor then protects the Tracker in secret and we're pretty much set to win. It's not quite follow the cop, but it's a safer alternative since Doctor + Cop does have a Roleblocker.

I like this idea a lot. It's a bit game-y, but hey the wiki acknowledges it's not a perfect strategy either.

I'm not a one-shot Bulletproof Townie.

I saw that strat too but I don't want to rely on it unless it falls in our lap. It just feels a little lame, which is why I originally only brought up BP.

So here you're discussing not wanting to rely upon a strategy that could be effective "unless it falls in our lap".  You describe it as "lame", why is that?

EuchreJack- He claims he's scum hunting, but I'm not really seeing it. His posts feel more like he just wants to show how town he is, but I also get a hint of being combative that doesn't seem like would come from town.

Where did I claim to be scumhunting?  Quote please!
Why can't town be combative?

It's lame because follow the cop is lame. There's very little deductive reasoning involved, and anyone who gets cleared is just there to be night kill fodder. I don't want to seek it out because I just don't think it's a good representation of Mafia and this is supposed to be a newbie game. However, if we figure out that it's our set up then there's no real reason not to do it.

As for the quote:

I also don't see the point in scum reading a player just because they roll the alignment often. RNG isn't alignment indicative.

It's called scumhunting.  I got a reaction out of Blue, now they can be examined for signs of scum.  In fact, I'm promoted Blue from Always Rolls Scum to slightly scummy for trying to buddy me (it was a weak attack on me, and they voted the same person as me, ergo I'm calling it buddying).  Liked the read list though.  More people should be doing that.  Surprised ToonyMan hasn't thrown that in green text yet.

I also just don't think town naturally thinks to be combative on Day 1. Aggressive, sure, I can see that. But combative town is rarely helpful when no one else is trying to fight.

[ToonyMan]

I really think an extension should be allowed for Rolan and FoU.

I feel better about the Web/FoU slot. Here's the thing for me though, Web is really good at reading Jack so if Web thinks Jack is 100% town then that means if Web/FoU is town then Jack is almost certainly town. This point is moot if both are mafia however. I strongly feel Jack is scummy here so I suspect the Web/FoU slot heavily or Web is simply wrong.

I still think Roden and Bluarian are very likely town. These are my strongest town reads.

Pref and Magma feel good, but I could see them as mafia partners with someone else still. Magma's case on me is rational and they're fair points. I did give reads not too much long after even though I was still null about Hedgerow and Rolan. I could have waited like I said I would.

Speaking of those two, I do feel better about Hedgerow although it's like 60% confidence. Rolan is a complete lottery and the big reason I want an extension. Rolan could be partners with anyone too, they need to communicate more.

Jack voting the Web/FoU slot likely means they're not both mafia, even though the vote is unnatural as hell I think it makes Jack look worse than FoU. Like Jack is willing to kill FoU here because they're not their partner. That's how I feel about it.

Who would be Jack's partner here then? My top picks would be either Pref or Magma, but I would always want to eliminate Jack here first.

Town
Roden
Bluarian

Pref
Magma

Hedgerow
Rolan

Web/FoU
Jack
Mafia

Although I'm starting to feel it's unlikely Jack would be partners with Web/FoU. It's also unlikely Jack is partners with Hedgerow which Roden mentions.

If the extension doesn't happen I'll be voting Jack before the deadline tomorrow morning. If it's a hammer vote I'll wait until the deadline.

[EuchreJack]

The only reason I voted Web/FOU was due to their failure to post reads.  Otherwise they're not a strong scum lean for me.  But since we got a deadline looming:
UNVOTE

[FallacyofUrist]

Also, if FallacyofUrist truly believed that read lists were not VITAL, they would NOT have criticized me for my low-effort reads list.  Extra Scum points for FallacyofUrist for only referring to the first, inferior reads list, and totally ignoring the second, better reads list.

Uh.

I'll be totally honest with you, I never noticed your second reads list. That's fair, then, if you polished your reads later.

The only reason I voted Web/FOU was due to their failure to post reads.

Okay, riddle me this. How many players have not posted a full detailed reads list, yet? Count them up. Are all those players scummy?

And if it's literally only me, then I suppose I can post one for the sake of comparisons, but otherwise I'd prefer to make my first good one Day 2, after we have a full Day of discussion to analyze. Not to say that I won't try and make a few individual reads. Right now, it looks like you're townie, but approaching things from a skewed, narrow perspective, for instance.

[EuchreJack]

I don't think so. It's not about quantity, but quality. A bunch of revealing posts might spew a player as town - such as your play in Roguelike Mafia 7 - but it is not normally alignment indicative and I don't believe town PRs should reveal anything on D1.

I mostly agree. I think the Bulletproof townie should step forward though if they exist.

Since I'm getting mislynched, at least initially due to my participation in the discussion that Roden started, they're my top scum pick.  I am literally blaming them for my lynch, even more than Toonyman.

Read list (aka EuchreJack's Last Will and Testament):
Rolan7 - Might have something to say on Day 2? I honestly doubt they could play as mafia, they're probably sub out due to the stress.
Magma Mater: So much gold posting, but maybe too town to be town?
webadict/FOU: With the switch, my brain just can't handle it yet - Note that Web was probably in the middle of some gambit, then FOU subbed
BluarianKnight - Has been far too quiet, which is a bad sign for Town
hedgerow - Bad scum or bad town, but maybe town got some use out of their "policy elimination" vote - Null
ToonyMan - See Magma Mater's comments on Toonyman
prefuzek - Not a sheep on this mislynch, but someone that wants it to happen with a loophole when I flip Town
Roden - When I flip town, lynch this person D2

[EuchreJack]

I can post one for the sake of comparisons

Please just do that, label it "gut reads list from last minute replacement" or whatever.  There are still players who have not posted reads lists, and you're setting a bad example by continuing to not do so.  I'm a little busy planning my funeral arrangements, could you help a brother out?