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[notquitethere]

I'm going to sleep on it. One final thing though is that if Blu did have potion of insurance, his buddy would have got a payout of x1 Rare item, and so the remaining scum player may have a trick up their sleeve like reviving from death, or redirecting or being immune to certain spells.

[TricMagic]

While NQT's pick of posts is decent, that still isn't enough given cherrypicking in analysis is a scumtell for NQT.

That being said, if he was town there would be little reason to push this... ideas are a bit off, I can't quite wrap my head around a Day 4 NQT

NQT, if this is wrong, are you ready to be lynched tomorrow?

[FallacyofUrist]

Additionally, after I'm executed, I fully expect Toony to be the night kill target tonight, due to being the most confirmed and additionally town-useful player. This'll leave us with a Jim-NQT-Tric final Day, and Jim will undoubtedly try to sway the confirmed Tric into executing NQT.

NQT, if this is wrong, are you ready to be lynched tomorrow?

NQT cannot reasonably be the mafia. Their attack of BluarianKnight on Day 2, so early, makes no sense from a scum perspective. NQT has proven themselves town by doing that, imo.

FallacyofUrist. I don't think I can reasonably save myself here, so let's get this show on the road. Shorten. Just don't forget what I've said once I'm gone, okay? If the town needs me dead in order to finalize the PoE that leads to the last mafia, I'm willing to oblige.

[FallacyofUrist]

Imma go over the rare items that could spell doom for the town, though. There's no guarantee that the mafia player could have gotten any of them, but it's something to keep in mind.

Amulet of Life Saving dodges the lynch.
Scroll of Solar Flare is a daykill.
Wand of Disabling removes a vote (though it'd be used instead of the mafiakill, presumably, so they're about equal)
Potion of Rage allows for a double night kill (though it would also remove the mafia's vote), meaning the remaining town player could execute them).
Scroll of Mercy could be used on self to dodge the lynch - assuming it's self-targetable.

So five items are relevant to breaking LYLO in favor of the scum, but only two rares (Amulet of Life Saving, Scroll of Solar Flare) do it for certain. So I'd say there's a minor risk we're screwed over by a hypothetical potion of insurance, but not really a significant one. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[ToonyMan]

Why even bother if you're going to self-vote?

[FallacyofUrist]

I'm not self-voting because I'm scum and want to end it. I'm self-voting because I'm town, there's no chance for me to be saved, so I may as well speed it along and save everyone the energy, increasing the chances we catch the mafia player on LYLO. That is the towniest thing I could do right now.

[ToonyMan]

We'll stop Jim if you're town, but voting yourself doesn't accomplish this task from your POV.

[FallacyofUrist]

Well, what else am I supposed to do? I'm the scummiest player here, and I can't change that fact currently.

Right. Okay.

I got confirmation from Toaster that it's okay to use flavor as part of an argument, so I can basically confirm that Tric definitely used the Scroll of Ill Will on me. Last night, I faceplanted into the dirt in a rather awkward manner, in my flavor. This makes me assume that the Scroll of Ill Will was used on me.

[Toaster]

Vote Count:

notquitethere: TricMagic
TricMagic:
FallacyofUrist: ToonyMan, notquitethere, Jim Groovester, FallacyofUrist
Jim Groovester:
ToonyMan:


Not Voting:

Day 3 will last until Wednesday, 6/9 at 10 PM EST.


There is one vote to shorten.  With five alive, three total votes needed to shorten.

Toaster, are item shots used up if you are roleblocked while using them?

No.

[notquitethere]

Fallacy self-voting + shortening does put a tick in favour of him being town (though scum do self-vote when giving up). I don't like it as a town strategy: the best thing town can usually do is not get mislynched, so no, Tric, I'm not going to let myself be killed if I'm still alive on D4.

As scum might have a revive etc., it is still quite important that we get this right. Fallacy, if you're town what do you have to say about your attack on Prefuzek D1, and Jim being on D1 Blu wagon?

[ToonyMan]

See, in this situation as town I would be really trying to push a case on who I think we should be voting instead. I would be stamping my feet and having a hissy fit that my lynching is wrong and it shouldn't be done. For example look at EoD1 in BYOR15.

You could argue that scum would do the same, and, you're right. Scum could and should do the same.

But there's a difference. FoU has no compelling cases because they're fiction. A town!FoU would be pushing for Jim harder, trying to find the one post that solves the game. But they can't, because no such solve exists. The self-vote and shortening is a pure mafia move. It either makes us doubt they could be mafia or ends their suffering sooner. It's a pure emotional appeal and I'm not falling for it again.

FoU, you can still push for Jim today. Tric is a swing vote, if you convince me I am also a swing vote. That's three votes on Jim. If you're town you should be able to solve Jim. I think you realize you can't because you're mafia and therefore are retreating to the self-sacrifice play that either keeps you alive another day or ends the game sooner, which makes far more sense from a mafia POV.

[ToonyMan]

@FoU:
On N1 what was your flavor like? When you got redirected from Jim to me?

[ToonyMan]

@NQT:
Why haven't you given an item list? Spill the beans. Tell us what you got and when.

[Jim Groovester]

Is there anything FallacyofUrist can dig up that would convince you?

I don't like the defeatist self-vote, but if there's nothing he can do even if he does try, we shouldn't put him through that.

[ToonyMan]

If he's town there should be something unless you or NQT are playing flawless mafia games.

For example:

Alternatively, Jim was the killer and we'll find out very soon.

You did praise BK's vote on me near the end of Day 1 as a bold and fresh direction before deciding to vote him a little bit later. Also letting ToonyMan know you were randomizing BK during N1 could've been mechanical cover for him for D2 that didn't end up working out since I randomized you.

This is a great point.

I also noticed that NQT voted Jim first today which is a strange snap decision to make. Did he really think FoU was off the hook, just like that?