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[TricMagic]

I'm genuinely impressed that you know what a Priest does.  Did you have to ask on scumchat?

No, given I looked at the classes at the beginning of the game. Didn't you? Still nothing on my wierd question, but that's to be expected I guess.

Web, right now I find NQT to be a centerpin. Do you know if he'd coach from the back as scum? From this, I can conclude three options. Option A, the bold one, Prefuzek. This is mostly the outlier however, and least likely from NQT's scum list, it's a good choice to force a mislynch if he gets lynched.

Option B, the Fallacy. A fairly general null this whole game so far for me, though NQT says he's doing better than others.

Option C, the Webadict Conspiracy: You and NQT are playing games. Note this is also unlikely long-term, and pointless to consider given you will out yourself at some point. Too risky a game for scum to play, though as a bus it would be genius if you could stay alive as confirmed town.

Option D. The Blue. Blue and NQT are in fact teamed up together, but real-life means NQT isn't contributing as much. Falls up there with Prefuzek though, as NQT would be in a more coaching role. Really dependent on Blue's posts going forward, but unlikely.

Option E, the ToonyMan. NQT and Toony are both busy with real-life(And birthday for Toony), resulting in a low-impact game from scum. This naturally means Toony isn't sending up red flags due to not enough time to play. (This is contingent on my gut instinct being wrong.)

Of these, Option B is most likely, followed by C, A, E, and D.

I have the begging of a headache. I just don't see Toony as scum, nor do I see a Blue/NQT team up. That thought doesn't make any sense in my head, so best to dismiss that option altogether.

Jim at this point is conf-town by majority, I think. If anyone has a dissenting opinion on that, feel free to bring it up.

[webadict]

Are there any worlds where NQT is not a part of the scumteam?

[BluarianKnight]

Dumb question - is an SK a possibility? I know it's been mentioned, but a quick look-through made me think it might not be.

If we've scum team and a SK, it changes things considerably then just a scum team.

[TricMagic]

Are there any worlds where NQT is not a part of the scumteam?

One where you are the leader of the scumteam, and this is all one incredible gambit.

I don't really think there are though. He just ticks too many red flags, and no green.

[TricMagic]

I am a bit drained.

[Toaster]

Vote Count:

EuchreJack:
notquitethere: FallacyofUrist, webadict, TricMagic
TricMagic: ToonyMan, EuchreJack
prefuzek: Jim Groovester
BluarianKnight: prefuzek, notquitethere
webadict:
FallacyofUrist:
Jim Groovester:
ToonyMan:


Not Voting: BluarianKnight


Day 1 will last until Tuesday, 6/1 at 10 PM EST.

[TricMagic]

Main issue of using logic for teams is the fact that I only have NQT as mainline scum. Trying to build teams when you don't even know the number leads to logic-traps.

[Jim Groovester]

Anyone want to convince on why notquitethere is worth voting? Before making this post I was thinking that now that notquitethere has posted I'd be interested to see what FallacyofUrist thought of it, but it turns out FoU already responded and it was so underwhelming I forgot about it while making this post.

I am unmoved by the 'NQT reads list bad' arguments I'm seeing but it feels like that's the meat of the case.

@Jim: Why do you think Tric is town? I'd really like to defer to your wisdom and experience, but the fact that the very second I suggested I have evidence linking him and prefuzek, he starts trying to get me lynched.  I mean, why should a town player want to do that?
And the insistence that I must reveal it NOW, IMMEDIATELY, sounds like desperate scum wanting to know where they screwed up so they can "talk it away".

I believe I have adequately explained my opinions about TricMagic in my recent posts so you can go look at them.

My main suspicion is built off him playing way off his usual town!tells.. which, at the end of the day, is kind of shitty to do if he's improving, or trying not to get lynched for his play as town.

. . .

Jack's a new player - While he's still seeming super scummy, a lot of his actions to me tell me of a town!player still trying to figure out what they're doing - I did a lot of the same stupid mistakes in Supernatural 10. I don't want to vote a player just because he's learning, so I backed off.

As for Tric, his play felt super off to me - Far different, so I thought he was scum.

Players who are learning can still be scum.

Are you giving them slack just to give them slack? That would be concerning. If their skill factors into your read on them, then fair enough. There's a subtle distinction that I'm trying to get out of you that I don't think I'm effectively expressing.

Dumb question - is an SK a possibility? I know it's been mentioned, but a quick look-through made me think it might not be.

If we've scum team and a SK, it changes things considerably then just a scum team.

There was one in Roguelike 6 and Roguelike 5. There were two scumteams in Roguelike 3 which is sort of similar to having an SK.

Slowfire Reads

heh

very very useless as a thought experiment. You put two town reads, a slight townread, and a null read of mine and told me to pick which of them are scum. You see the issue there?

Right now I'm gearing up for a NQT push now that I'm down with questioning Jack. Which was kinda the point of pressuring them, to see what stuck and what fell apart.

You know I actually like effort!TricMagic a lot when he makes an appearance. I'd like to see more of this concise, efficient communications and response out of you.

- can I get a vote count? I might be in the lead which is Not Good.
3: Feeling pressured NQT? The day ends Tuesday, so we got time. All the time in the world at this point where you made the post on page 8.

I didn't read most of your post but this did catch my eye and is a decent observation. Worrying about being the most voted player four days before the deadline is a little off.

I change my mind on you Tric. I think you're Town now. I'll explain later why. Maybe. I might just be crazy for thinking so. Oh well.

You can't do this, webadict! You're upending EuchreJack's world that he carefully constructed by sheeping off other players!

[ToonyMan]

@TricMagic:

@TricMagic:
Dude you're driving me crazy, why are you town reading me? You can post walls of text for Jack, but won't answer me.

Pretty much entirely instinct Toony. Instinct, and not wanting to drive myself crazy questioning everyone and everything. Having two town reads this early helps with sorting everyone else. And given web's gambit, it helps a lot.
Could change, but you haven't sent up any red flags, then again, your posts have been short and sweet for the most part. (as I remember)
I've also been focused on nailing scum to the wall, and NQT has been looking that way for a while. With Jack done with, I can at least trust he isn't an ally at the moment, most likely town focusing on those he deems as scum. Something I said in my wall against NQT's 5 pre-lurkertrack posts.

Uh huh...Jack and Tric are definitely not MvM at least.

Are there any worlds where NQT is not a part of the scumteam?

One where you are the leader of the scumteam, and this is all one incredible gambit.
I don't really think there are though. He just ticks too many red flags, and no green.

Why are you voting NQT if you suspect Fallacy more? Or at least...I think you suspect FoU more.

[TricMagic]

FoU falls into the case of not really having any flags, itself a flag for me. But that data is at least there, NQT throws up red flags without any green ones, and has very little to go off of given I could go over all of the posts pretty quick.

I may be poking Jack about me having something useful tonight and them saying NQT having something useful if they survive to day 3. (lost my train of thought.)

Well, point is NQT says that, but doesn't really have the posts to make them living that long useful to town. Hence NQT being either a thief or transmutor. The other useful classes are one-shot or passive luck.

[FallacyofUrist]

Dumb question - is an SK a possibility? I know it's been mentioned, but a quick look-through made me think it might not be.

If we've scum team and a SK, it changes things considerably then just a scum team.

I'm going to go over this, since this topic has reoccured several times, and the scum are capable of using the possibility of third parties to disorient and confuse the town.

Ahem.

This is a nine-player game. If there's a two person mafia team and a single SK, that's three anti-town and six town. Furthermore, the SK must have some means of killing to be an SK. Suppose a town mislynch Day 1, then the mafia and the SK each select a townie to kill Night 1. That leads us to three town, three anti-town Day 2. So, no, an SK and a mafia team would be horrendously unbalanced, and I trust Toaster to not do that. Even if you limit the SK's killing potential in some way, it's still a really rough prospect.

However, not all past Roguelike games have had a default scumteam. Two opposed anti-town third parties is also possible. For example, 1 SK and 1 cult leader with a 1-shot bulletproof. I say this because I know someone will point it out if I don't. I'd rate the chance of this as... unlikely but possible - and we should not assume a more esoteric configuration of the anti-town players without significant evidence involved.

So I'm still going with the 'traditional scumteam of two players' theory. If you have such significant evidence that we're dealing with something odder, let us all know quickly.

[webadict]

I'm genuinely impressed that you know what a Priest does.  Did you have to ask on scumchat?

No, given I looked at the classes at the beginning of the game. Didn't you? Still nothing on my wierd question, but that's to be expected I guess.

Web, right now I find NQT to be a centerpin. Do you know if he'd coach from the back as scum? From this, I can conclude three options. Option A, the bold one, Prefuzek. This is mostly the outlier however, and least likely from NQT's scum list, it's a good choice to force a mislynch if he gets lynched.

Option B, the Fallacy. A fairly general null this whole game so far for me, though NQT says he's doing better than others.

Option C, the Webadict Conspiracy: You and NQT are playing games. Note this is also unlikely long-term, and pointless to consider given you will out yourself at some point. Too risky a game for scum to play, though as a bus it would be genius if you could stay alive as confirmed town.

Option D. The Blue. Blue and NQT are in fact teamed up together, but real-life means NQT isn't contributing as much. Falls up there with Prefuzek though, as NQT would be in a more coaching role. Really dependent on Blue's posts going forward, but unlikely.

Option E, the ToonyMan. NQT and Toony are both busy with real-life(And birthday for Toony), resulting in a low-impact game from scum. This naturally means Toony isn't sending up red flags due to not enough time to play. (This is contingent on my gut instinct being wrong.)

Of these, Option B is most likely, followed by C, A, E, and D.

I have the begging of a headache. I just don't see Toony as scum, nor do I see a Blue/NQT team up. That thought doesn't make any sense in my head, so best to dismiss that option altogether.

Jim at this point is conf-town by majority, I think. If anyone has a dissenting opinion on that, feel free to bring it up.

Mmm... Here's my thoughts.

Option B:
I don't think B is correct. Not because FoU doesn't have scum equity, but because FoU doesn't have nearly enough scum equity. FoU's cases seem genuine, and I'm not really seeing the scumminess that you're seeing. It's why I have to discount B being possible. B relies on FoU being scum, which doesn't seem viable at this point.

Looking at the FoU/NQT interactions leads me to believe that W/W is not possible unless FoU went hard for the bus early. FoU's case on NQT stems from NQT not putting in the effort in their early reads, which is a pretty dangerous game to be playing with a partner. NQT, on the other hand, is heavily on the defensive, and poking holes in FoU's towniness as well. If they're both scum, they've really made it look like FoU is Town, and that seems... silly?

I'd say that chances of FoU/NQT are extremely low. Like, 1% low.

Option C:

Obviously, options C is not correct because I am Town. I won't bother trying to defend option C because I 100% know it is false.

Option A:

I do believe Option A is possible, and of those listed, it's the one I believe the most likely to be correct. prefuzek does not seem town to me, and while I realize this is the one you believe is least likely to be possible, there's a lot of merit to it.

NQT/prefuzek interactions involve NQT reading prefuzek first as townlean/nullish, prefuzek listing NQT as null, NQT chainsawdefending prefuzek, NQT moving prefuzek to TOP TOWN, and... Wow, they have been REALLY weirdly not communicative, especially for NQT to move them to their top Town read. Honestly, that's not necessarily highly suspect, but it does raise lots of questions. Like, if NQT is scum, you pretty much have to look hard at prefuzek.

I'd say chances are high on NQT/prefuzek, like 60%.

Option E

ToonyMan x NQT? Hm, that's a tough one. ToonyMan has been making potshots at NQT for most of the day. If anything, ToonyMan x web has far higher scum equity, since we've sorta avoided each other all day. I feel like I'll get shit for this take, but my feelings are that ToonyMan has taken a back seat specifically because they chose Priest, and therefore, they're trying to avoid looking super obvious. It makes sense to me that that's the case, at least, because ToonyMan avoided claiming Paladin with me, likely in an effort to force me to be the target of all the attacks, and then to protect me. Yeah, yeah, it's an obvious plan, and I'd see it coming all day, so that's why I'm pointing it out.

So, ToonyMan and NQT as W/W has very, very low equity. With ToonyMan and NQT not being active, it feels like they'd be pushing each other pretty hard in scumchat, and then ToonyMan would probably decide to bus them later than the very beginning. ToonyMan pushed poked earyl, so... It's just not really there?

I think this is more likely than the FoU pairing, but like 5% chance.

Option D

Tough one for me. If BluarianKnight is scum, then their scum game improved pretty drastically. This pair seem doable, since BluarianKnight is mimicking a lot of my cases, but BluarianKnight seems to be aiming pretty hard at bussing NQT here, and from my knowledge of their playstyle, they tend to be a bit more protective of their teammates, giving them the benefit of the doubt. Also, BluarianKnight doesn't lash out as Town when they're under suspicion, but they do so a lot as scum.

Given that, their interactions together could be putting each other at arm's length, but... eh. I'd be willing to even say this is more likely than ToonyMan/NQT, but that's if I give a lot of leeway to how well BluarianKnight can play.

I'd say... probably around 4% likely. Just... Just not feeling it.

But, you gave me what I wanted, so if we could all stop voting TricMagic and vote out NQT, that'd be great. Let's go!

[EuchreJack]

Fine, fine, let's kill the SK first.  For all we know, NQT could be something truly awful, like a poisoner, an arsonist, or something else that gets worse with time.

UNVOTE

VOTE Notquitethere

Why am I so convinced that NQT is a serial killer?  Ironically, Tric and Web's analysis, since the most likely outcome from my perspective at least is that NQT is working alone.  Just look at Tric's response.  He gives lots of options, but they're all crap!  Also, add up Web's percentages (they don't add up to 100).  Web is saying some other option is 30% likely.  I'm saying that option is that NQT is solo scum, and I rate it more than 30%.

Or maybe NQT is just hiding their partner quite well.

[EuchreJack]

@Blue: Answer to your question as to what we know about alignments.

Do we get to know how many of each alignment exist?

Also, everyone should chose Paladin and lie about choosing Paladin. Except maybe Web if they want a handicap. 

No.  Roguelikes tend to be... creative with alignment distribution, so I would suggest against making assumptions.

@Blue2: What are your reads on Tric and NQT?  Also, please update your reads list if you feel they have changed.

[EuchreJack]

FOS Jim

@Jim: You've voting prefuzek.  But you're not trying to build a real case against them.  Stop being lazy and get to work.  Maybe you can get Town to vote prefuzek, if that is your true intent.

Don't make me downgrade you.  I mean, you'd still doing a good job pissing me off, which totally plays to your Town meta, and you're being lazy, which also plays into your town meta.  But trying to protect NQT without actually attacking the person you're voting?  I thought Town Jim was better than that...