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[Loud Whispers]

I wouldn't be surprised if 30 years of fighting the suit cost Shell more than that.

Perhaps, but they're probably thinking the cost of allowing a precedent to be set that would speed up the claims of other peoples affected by their oil spill would be worth the cost of delaying a sentence by half a century

[martinuzz]

Last week, a military coup happened in Niger. The democratically elected president is being held captive (he seems to be treated well enough though).
Anti-western sentiments are rising, western countries have evacuated and are evacuating their countrymen.
Wagner and Russia have shown vocal support for the coup.

Today, ECOWAS countries are talking about plans for a joint military intervention, if two days from now their ultimatum to the military junta to cease their coup and restore democratic power expires.

[voliol]

Afaik, Mali and Burkina Faso have also expressed their support for the coup. And Mali already work with the Wagner group since they had the French military leave, and their own military isn't sufficient to deal with the islamists in sahel (and that event was related to Mali's last coup? Iirc).

This could become more of a mess.

[da_nang]

"The July August Crisis began because of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans Sahel."

[MaxTheFox]

PTW.

[EuchreJack]

Thread's theme music

[martinuzz]

The ultimatum expired. Niger has closed down it's airspace out of fear for being invaded by ECOWAS forces

[Loud Whispers]

inb4 Wagner free mercenary state in the sahel

[martinuzz]

For now, no ECOWAS military expedition. Coming thursday, the ECOWAS leaders will speak again on the matter. Military intervention is explicitly still not excluded as an option.
What complicates matters is that Burkina Faso an Mali have said that they will consider an ECOWAS intervention in Niger as a declaration of war against their countries as well (both countries have a government that also came to power through military coup).

[Great Order]

inb4 Wagner free mercenary state in the sahel

Vassalise them, you get free mercenaries for life if you do that.

[Powder Miner]

There reeeeeally won't be any sort of military intervention, and to be honest with you I think the amount of volume with it is mostly politicking on the part of Tinubu and the junta leaders.

Just getting to Niger is an essentially impossible task thanks to its very remote, VERY Sahelan location for every single member of ECOWAS aside from Benin (not exactly a military power) and Nigeria, operating within Niger is an even more impossible task (even Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger themselves have consistently struggled to operate within the Sahelan and Saharan terrain, let alone countries that either don't have that sort of terrain at all or have only corners of it), and Nigeria's military and political situation is such that it's in no state to go pulling an invasion itself. Tinubu, the recent president, has to deal with a load of political instability because of contestation over his election, and invading Niger would piss off many of the exact people he's seeing contestation from. Not only that, but the Nigerian military is run ragged through years and years of combat with Boko Haram and several other local conflicts in Nigeria, and they really can't just be pulling all their stakes up from their complicated checkpoint systems and deployments in Nigeria to pull an invasion out of their hat.

[Loud Whispers]

Vassalise them, you get free mercenaries for life if you do that.

Putin forgetting the merc meta can backfire if you fail an imprison plot and they press claim for your highest title

There reeeeeally won't be any sort of military intervention, and to be honest with you I think the amount of volume with it is mostly politicking on the part of Tinubu and the junta leaders.

Just getting to Niger is an essentially impossible task thanks to its very remote, VERY Sahelan location for every single member of ECOWAS aside from Benin (not exactly a military power) and Nigeria, operating within Niger is an even more impossible task (even Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger themselves have consistently struggled to operate within the Sahelan and Saharan terrain, let alone countries that either don't have that sort of terrain at all or have only corners of it), and Nigeria's military and political situation is such that it's in no state to go pulling an invasion itself. Tinubu, the recent president, has to deal with a load of political instability because of contestation over his election, and invading Niger would piss off many of the exact people he's seeing contestation from. Not only that, but the Nigerian military is run ragged through years and years of combat with Boko Haram and several other local conflicts in Nigeria, and they really can't just be pulling all their stakes up from their complicated checkpoint systems and deployments in Nigeria to pull an invasion out of their hat.

You're spot on. Much of Nigeria's armoured fleet is in a dubious state from ill maintenance and corruption. But that doesn't mean ECOWAS won't try something, and I wouldn't rule out seeing convoys of light cars and light artillery bussing around loads of infantry like the Toyota War or air dropped troops taking over key sites like the Rwandans in the Second Congo War, especially since even a poorly maintained air force is still an air force, and Nigeria has one whilst Niger does not (besides some token frames). Also if (or when) foreign trainers & contractors get involved, you can start seeing "capability gaps" getting plugged really quick. So... We'll see

[Duuvian]

Wagner may be redeploying some portion of it's forces to Libya (which borders Niger)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8-2023
(last section)

It could be disinformation of course, but it seems a likely result rather than sitting in Belarus.

[da_nang]

ECOWAS is activating its standby forces to restore constitutional order in Niger.

[Great Order]

Oh boy, is this posturing or is Niger about to become a warzone?

Honestly it's for the best they nip this in the bud now. If they leave the coupers alone then the other ECOWAS member countries will have any would-be dictators realise there's no need to worry about the consequences of throwing a coup. Doesn't mean I'm going to revel in what'll happen if this turns ugly.