Not exactly sure how the Nightmare can lose. If the game goes on for too long, Nightmare wins. Nightmare could (and probably should) prepare their entire list of kills ahead of time, and then just play as a Friend. Eventually, they'll either kill their target or be left alone with the Dreamer.
Unless they can deduct the Dreamer, they should NOT use Awaken, since they win if the game goes on long enough anyways.One interesting aspect is that unlike regular mafia, nobody can win if the vote is on them. If the vote is on the Dreamer, the Dreamer loses. If the vote is on the Friends or Best Friends, if the Dreamer Awakens, all the dreamers lose (including the Friend or Best Friend). As previously mentioned, time is on the Nightmare's side, so they have little reason to Awaken.
I'm curious about the probabilities on this one, as there is probably an "Optimal" day for the dreams to Hammer their vote. Too soon and their chances of getting the Nightmare are slim. But each day that passes increases the chances of the Nightmare getting the Dreamer.
EDIT: It actually comes down to what I'd call day 3, assuming the first day before the first killing is day zero. Both the Dreamer and Nightmare have a 50% chance of winning, and have to hammer before the vote turns on them. And the Nightmare might not have killed the best friend yet. Still favors Nightmare, but then again don't most of these games favor scum?
What happens if all the friends say
Awaken? Nothing. And then there is a 50% chance of choosing right on day zero. Should be a short game.
Since time favors the Nightmare, and the Dreams have immunity until end of day 1, all friends should say
Awaken, and then try to figure out which player is the Dreamer and which is the Nightmare. They've got 48 hours or so until the Nightmare can kill the Dreamer, and any other strategy gives less than the 50% chance of victory (since the Nightmare can pick them off one by one with the day kills).
Ironically, in this scenario, the Friends SHOULD aim the vote at themselves, since if they aim at it the Dreamer by mistake, the Nightmare will just say
Awaken and win. Or if they get lucky and aim it at the Nightmare, the Dreamer can
Awaken and win. The interesting thing is that both the Dreamer and the Nightmare are the only ones that CAN'T aim the vote at themselves.
Fun with numbers:
Normal play (not using the Friends Awaken strategy)
Voting right by Dreamers:
Day 0 Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Nightmare Wins
1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 4 1 in 3
Missing the Nightmare
5 in 6 4 in 5 3 in 4 2 in 3
83% 80% 75%
66% Actually 50%, as the Friend knows they're a Friend, and both the Dreamer and Nightmare will hammer if not on them
Dreamer Dying to Dark Spear
Complicated by Best Friend, as it essentially either gets burned without exposing the Dreamer, or pushes back the kill result of the Dreamer by one day.
Final? Edit: The real game is getting the game to start on a Friday/Saturday, which triggers by all player slots filling. Game start on a Tuesday is pretty much Nightmare autow
in.