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[EuchreJack]

Just want to get this out now: If anyone starts demanding that I give them info on day 1, you might just get an FU response.  I'm not (necessarily) scum, just obstinate. 

Also, the spies have no reason to hide their intentions when they send out the Assassin: They've already lost all their missions, so there is no reason they can't all say "Kill Commander X!"  Especially since they know who are spies.  I'm sure everyone figured that out, but its a new rule.

I actually hope the rebellion wins, even if I might draw the short straw and be not on that side.  Two losses in a row makes me sad. 

I'll share some analysis:
Optimal sabotage for Spies on most games is Missions 2 and 3, as a single sabotage gives the same probabilities for any member of that team being as Spy as anyone who didn't go on the mission (at least when I crunched the numbers for 6 and 9 player games).  Mission 1 greatly increases the odds that one of the members is a spy if a sabotage occurs (from 33% anyone is a spy to 50% that one team member is a spy in a 6 player game).  Mission 4 requires 2 sabotages with larger groups, and thus it is concern about whether there will even be enough spies to sabotage successfully.
If there are problems with the math, please correct me.

[notquitethere]

Also, the spies have no reason to hide their intentions when they send out the Assassin: They've already lost all their missions, so there is no reason they can't all say "Kill Commander X!"  Especially since they know who are spies.  I'm sure everyone figured that out, but its a new rule.

This is absolutely correct. At the end of the game, the spies reveal themselves and can openly confer.

I'll share some analysis:
Optimal sabotage for Spies on most games is Missions 2 and 3, as a single sabotage gives the same probabilities for any member of that team being as Spy as anyone who didn't go on the mission (at least when I crunched the numbers for 6 and 9 player games).  Mission 1 greatly increases the odds that one of the members is a spy if a sabotage occurs (from 33% anyone is a spy to 50% that one team member is a spy in a 6 player game).  Mission 4 requires 2 sabotages with larger groups, and thus it is concern about whether there will even be enough spies to sabotage successfully.
If there are problems with the math, please correct me.

Having played lots of iterations of this game irl, you're right that it's very common for spies to lie low in the first mission. If spies manage to fail mission 4 with two people on it, it puts town in a very difficult position if the game goes on to D5.

[webadict]

What are the odds that I find the Commander on Day 1?

[ToonyMan]

What are the odds that I find the Commander on Day 1?

41.47%

[webadict]

What are the odds that I find the Commander on Day 1?

41.47%

Not sure how insulted to be by this answer.

[ToonyMan]

What are the odds that I find the Commander on Day 1?

41.47%

Not sure how insulted to be by this answer.

I would be insulted.

Pinky promise swear to claim Commander on Day 1 if either of us get it?

[webadict]

Sure. I'm also gonna claim it if I don't have it, so, ya know.

[ToonyMan]

Sure. I'm also gonna claim it if I don't have it, so, ya know.

Shhhhhh *wink wink*

On that note, anybody caught winking in game I'm not allowing on my team.

[webadict]

That's not fair. I only look like I'm winking because I only have one good eye.

[EuchreJack]

 

...I don't want to be on your team anyways. 

Besides, it's not like they'll be the ones going on the first mission. 

[Knightwing64]

I trust you guys. 😄

Please don’t kill me. 😭😂😁

[EuchreJack]

I trust you guys. 😄

Please don’t kill me. 😭😂😁

Obvious Scum tactic, as Spy players can't die and all Rebels except Commander would gladly die in place of their beloved Commander.
Knightwing64 is a Spy!
...yes, I'm aware the game hasn't started yet. 

[Knightwing64]

I declare that you are a spy for declaring me a spy! Foul traitor!

[Vector]

With the warning that I am very bad at this game.

[TricMagic]

I'm obviously the spy masquerading as an Inincorrigible Incalculable Inconvenience.