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[notquitethere]

_{i'm not muddying anything, i'm just saying my analysis was, although modest in extent, essentially correct on the main point i made in it. by all means continue. i'm enjoying you all muddy things well enough on your own...}

[Caz]

_{i'm not muddying anything, i'm just saying my analysis was, although modest in extent, essentially correct on the main point i made in it. by all means continue. i'm enjoying you all muddy things well enough on your own...}

You want to lynch Reverie, right?

[notquitethere]

_{no i want to lynch} vector _{but you all won't realise she's 3rd party Outsider until the game ends prematurely tomorrow}

[Caz]

_{no i want to lynch} vector _{but you all won't realise she's 3rd party Outsider until the game ends prematurely tomorrow}

oh you crack me up

[TricMagic]

I'm pretty sure Jim's been holding his doubles action since day one. Kinda like how I got an upgraded action on day 2. Dorf getting two wands might be linked, as would Blue's double-track trick he says he now has. My Transfig is P10, so it goes last.

[notquitethere]

_{only joking. can't argue with vector and tric's mason claim. let's hammer} BluarianKnight

[Caz]

_{only joking. can't argue with vector and tric's mason claim. let's hammer} BluarianKnight

oh no, such wifom T_T

[Reverie]

Aren't you just a bundle of WIFOM today. 

Ninja'd lmao

[Toaster]

I'm not sure why you're looking for my case on Reverie when I posted it yesterday.  TLDR NQT and Reverie spent D1 distancing.

Spoiler: For reference.  The rest of my read list is in there which has barely budged (click to show/hide)

Also my suspicion of Reverie goes up when I see this as first two posts:

It's a policy of mine to keep an eye on anyone who asks everyone in the game an RVS question in a concerted effort to look engaged. There's always at least one. So yes, apart from Jim's fluff point I have my own hunch against NQT.

Reverie,  what's the difference between players seeming engaged and being engaged? Do you need me to point to the many games in which I have been town and addressed all players in my opening post, or can I leave that as an exercise for the viewers at home?

Snark or no, shotgun-RVSing the entire lobby comes across as an easy return of investment in the art of looking busy. It's fluff in its own way. Whether or not you do it as town doesn't change the fact that it does get my attention (as someone who talks too much when nervous), and Jim's point resonates with it. But point taken. Unvote.

Quick early distancing?  Can't say for certain no.

Reverie: Top three favorite towntells, go.

I don't really like this question because it feels like giving dangerous advice, so I'll pass. Nice try though.

Everyone: Am I force to answer those...RVS questions?

So right, I don't know this set up very well. Nor do I have a good feel on who might be the scum. So I'm just gonna vote Jim Groovster for having that same attitude from last game.

This is about as bad as copouts get, Luckyowl.

Early vote easy target

During D1, NQT and Reverie are taking shots at each other while watching the Lucky wagon sail home.

Finally, Reverie spends pretty much all of D2 and the last half of D1 focusing on mechanics.  Now granted, there's a LOT of focus on mechanics going on- not that unusual with this many claims including a mafia inspect result- but what I'm not seeing is any analysis.  To top things off, Reverie is in the best place to have performed the Mafiakill last night.  All told, Reverie is now my #2 scum pick.

I 100% believe Vector and TricMagic's claim of masonry.  I've been getting town vibes from Tric since this post:

I received the effect of the wand, and it is indeed positive. Not a divination spell, but a warding spell against something specific (which I’ll keep to myself in case I need it) until the “Night of the Full Moon”. The ability doesn’t specify when this night might be.

I’d say this clears Secret for sure.

I can actually answer this. That would be night 2 and 5. And suppose so. Also clears the one to cast it of the countdown?

He didn't need to volunteer this information, and yet there it is.  This is a solid towncred post. Bump him up to Town with Vector in said prior read list.


I can (and should) build up a longer form case on Reverie, but I'm quite convinced on it at this point.  Lynch Reverie, wrap this up in a bow.

[TricMagic]

4mask, you here?

[notquitethere]

_{probably just as well 4mask isn't about tbh}

[Vector]

I'm about to make a fuckton of posts. Apologies, all.

[Vector]

Starting here. Jim: You don't get information and your targets don't know that they have been targeted. Would you like to claim further? Otherwise, I am going to press a fullclaim if we mis-eliminate today.

I actioned both ToonyMan and Secretdorf during Night 2. I can spend points to power up my abilities which I used to target two people last night.

My targets don't know I target them and I don't get any information from targeting them so I have nothing else to report on that.

[Vector]

About BK.

Here is NQT pocketing BK by mirroring the beliefs in their post:

Blu

4mask, definitely. I can usually somewhat get a feel of scum or town off most people, but 4mask has always just read.. 4mask to me. I cant distinguish his scum and town play easily, if at all, without heavy digging.
I'd second Vector - still don't know how to read them too well either.

NQT - Who'd you prefer least to be 3rd party?

I think 4mask has a less legible style now he's been playing a lot elsewhere. Vector always seems pretty town to me... though maybe less so if they don't turn up. 4mask is the more dangerous 3rd party as recent experience has shown.

Here's an old Fallacy post. Yes, I'm quoting the whole thing. Note the three targets of choice: Caz, Secretdorf, BK.

Attacking BK for voting NQT instead of FoU in light of my copclaim is absurd;

Spoiler: longpost (click to show/hide)

Okay. Let's do some deduction.

The game has 13 players. Lucky was an SK. Assuming a standard sort of setup, I'd expect there to be 9 town, 1 third-party player (Lucky), and 3 mafia. Technically, there could be some kind of nonsense like 1 SK, 1-mafia ally who can convert a single person to mafia, and 1 cult leader.

Or just 3 SKs.

But we've seen that Wuba only rarely experiments with that kind of nonsense (as far as I recall), so let's assume that we're dealing with a simple 9-town 1-SK 3-mafia setup. At least for now.

If we want to figure out the scumteam, we can't just look at individual scumminess, we also have to look at connections.

Y'all are focused on what's going on here and now. And I'm happy about that. But at the same time, there are resources we can look at elsewhere.

As far as I'm concerned, NQT and Vector have tangled themselves up together. Barring a frame ability (still possible), only one of them will be mafia. If we don't get the mafia on the first go, we lynch the other one tomorrow. So I'm going to set aside my focus from them right now.

Luckyowl was eliminated yesterday, and even with their lack of participation we can still derive some information by how people hopped on his wagon.

notquitethere, Caz, Vector, Secretdorf, Jimjam, TricMagic, and BluarianKnight. Thanks to our handy-dandy Mamobo, I can easily track where each of those votes was placed from.

(Goshdarnit, Mamobo. It doesn't actually seem to track the votes in order.)

Either way, Reverie is right about one thing, with eight hours to go, I should follow my own advice and coalesce. Vector won't happening and we're swearing off CFDs so I'll have to pick this up tomorrow.

Back to LuckyOwl. Just dreadful showing.

Lucky wagon let's go

Wait, are we at deadline? I'd definitely go with LuckyOwl then. If they're not going to play, then the millstone around our collective necks can leave.

nobody is voting me? No one even noticed I am here. Very sus.

Luckyowl will probably be the best choice for a D1 lynch. Other than that, I'll wait until I read these few pages, which are suspiciously few.

There's what, fifteen minutes left in the day?

I'll toss mine onto Luckyowl for anti-tie safety.

This is the last vote I made on Luckyowl. Till now anyway. Quick note, he's still not awake.

Putting my vote on Luckyowl to prevent a tie, if FoU decides to kamikaze. We'll vote FoU day two, then go from there.

So who put in the most effort? Who put in the least?

From the looks of things? Caz and Secretdorf. For the least.

The remainder seem to have put in roughly the same amount of effort into voting Luckyowl - not much, but more than Caz and Secretdorf. Caz didn't even try to justify their vote, even though it would have been easy. Secretdorf isn't as obvious, but check the timestamp on their vote. Their vote on Lucky was literally an RVS vote they never bothered to remove or even reinforce.

I think there might be enough information lying around for me to build a full case on Caz, now. Secretdorf, I'm not so sure about, given the... wand stuff. Sharing power around?


That said. What makes it better to eliminate one of these candidates first? Is Caz a better scumpick than NQT or even Vector?

One more thing.

BluarianKnight, didn't you say you were going to vote me today? See above.

[NQT[] has also gone completely silent

Well, that's awkward isn't it? Not the best timing.

Here is a choice FoU/BK interaction.

They've dug their own grave, and it's ludicrous you don't see that at this point.

I'm trying to avoid tunnel-visioning.

But uh. What is scummy about NQT? Aside from Vector's claimed cop result. What other evidence is there? It's genuinely possible I just... you know. Missed it.

In light of these three posts, I don't presently think that BK is scum.

[Vector]

Here is Toaster on D1:

Scummy:
NQT.  I'd love more hard data, but he's pinging my scumdar pretty hard.
FallacyofUrist.  What Jim said, pretty much.  He spend D1 BYOR15 threatening the town, and here he goes again.  He was scum there, he's probably scum here.
Secretdorf.  He's spent all day going on about day actions and hasn't actually espoused a case on anyone, really.  Got in on the ground floor of a Lucky Lynch.  The wand shenanigans is null for me.

[...]

Other Things:
Probably at least one scum on the Lucky wagon, regardless of Lucky's alignment.

Yeah, the more I read this feels like Scum NQT.  His analysis is there and looks useful, but it's not actually generating cases, per se?  He's using it to get to the conclusions he wanted to start with; which appears to be an easy Lucky lynch.  The worst part is this works even if Lucky is scum or town; ScumLucky and NQT looks great, TownLucky and oh well he wasn't doing anything anyway.  Plus, he says what I quoted above then he votes Vector, contradicting his own concern.  He does at least comment on that and back off it, but crucially before he gets any reply out of Vector.

I don't presently think that Toaster has the guts to bus his other two scumbuddies D1 when Lucky is on the block. If we were talking about Jim -- yes, perhaps. But I don't believe Toaster is scum. Unvote.