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Author Topic: Supernatural 10 - Game Over!  (Read 88914 times)

4maskwolf

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #930 on: March 03, 2021, 05:23:02 pm »

-shrug- agree to disagree. You've seen my math, if you don't agree that it's a scenario worth considering that's up to you.
I don't even believe it matters to you, so I'm not really sure why I'd trust your math. For you, anyone else also works.
-angry dog noises-

Weren't you the one talking about how I was townier than many actual towns and that I clearly had the town's best interest at heart?

Why the change?

Also, like, whether I care or not doesn't actually change the math. Math is math, regardless of who's using it.

-shrug- agree to disagree. You've seen my math, if you don't agree that it's a scenario worth considering that's up to you.
How about this, if Luckyowl is Town, who does that implicate? For me, I'd say ToonyMan and TricMagic. ToonyMan has been pushing the Luckywagon all day and TricMagic is... like, super weird.
Toony, 100%, especially if we're looking at a conversion team. Toony has felt very off to me today in a "might have been converted" kind of way and I honestly think he was more likely the convert last night than Lucky, the Lucky vote is just to play it safe.

Other than that I'd probably just go down through my existing list of "who's the wolfiest": Caz, Icy, Tric, Persus, in that order. Maybe anyone who agreed with Toony's bizarre case on Lucky that I still have trouble understanding because of how self-contradicting it is. Don't remember exactly who expressed support for it, I think Jim did? Plus like one or two other people?

Side note but yes, "thread consensus" is perhaps a little strong of a term but it's basically the only devil candidate that more than one person believes in, so it's certainly the favored candidate by the thread.

4maskwolf

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #931 on: March 03, 2021, 05:25:13 pm »

I'd like to point out that if I was playing to my survivor wincon rather than trying to townside I would not be this married to launching Lucky into the stratosphere, if I don't care then why bother going this hard on a purely mechanical lynch to head off a scenario I win in anyway.

Toaster

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #932 on: March 03, 2021, 05:28:35 pm »

So I spent some time reviewing Super 6, which had a Charismatic Cultist.  It was enlightening.

TL;DR I'd bet the game we don't have a Cult Team of three that contains a Charismatic Cultist.  Meph tried that in an eleven player game, and it was an scum blowout, and probably would have been even without them converting the Monster Hunter.  In his post game review, he made commentary about future ways to balance this out, mostly in how attempting to convert someone with a kill would either result in a kill or a loss of role power.  He also talked clearly targeting certain people for roles given meta reads and likelihood of conversion. (He thought veterans Toony or Web with less impactful roles would be converted, not the raw recruit player with Monster Hunter... who asked for a replace D1 and turned into me.)  I see Charismatic Cultist with one buddy as plausible in this game.

In addition, two dreamwalkers would be a fairly strong role counter for a converter; two players each getting two chances to see the conversion happen (recruit and recruiter).  Since we're getting deep into meta reads, I wouldn't be surprised if he made sure a Starting Scum Team Lucky had someone to talk with.  I'd be way more likely to believe Cult Lucky started as such with only a single buddy.  And heck, Charismatic Cultist+Cult Priest sounds like an interesting team in a 13p game.



As for Town Lucky getting converted, you're looking at the tradeoff cost of getting one player of your choice, one likely in a meta-strong position, VERSUS a meta-weak player who MIGHT bring in another buddy, who would have been... the player who got lynched D1.  Raw numbers are nice, but you're not getting a lot besides. I'd think the Strong Player Of Your Choice is the better deal... unless the Charismatic Cultist started with two teammates and raw numbers could brute force it, but I've already covered that possibility and how it's super remote.
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webadict

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #933 on: March 03, 2021, 05:31:15 pm »

Unless we're lucky about Lucky, I'm not quite sure this spread catches town in under three hours to go:

NQT's Tally Sheet
Jim Groovester: 2: Persus13, notquitethere
Luckyowl: 4: 4maskwolf, BluarianKnight, Luckyowl, TricMagic
notquitethere: 2: Jim Groovester, ToonyMan
Toaster: 2: IcyTea31, Vector
ToonyMan: 1: Caz
Vector: 1: Toaster

Web, I think you're right. It's not a good tradeoff for scum. I'm solid that they'd pick from the pool of top players. My earlier Lucky vote was on the assumption that Lucky started as scum. But this whole situation does feel a bit like Bluarian's D1 where he's throwing in the towel (though if we let off every player that gives up we'd never get anywhere).
Which, again, is fair, if we'd like to take the information here and utilize it. But, we're spending all Day saying it's Luckyowl and nothing else. I'm just jumping through ToonyMan's posts and it's really just Luckyowl for the first half of them and just tunnelling hard on it. Although, writing that out now, I can't actually tell if that's the old Toony Tunnel. Maybe I'm thinking of everything wrong.

Damn, I'm really waffling hard here. I'm gonna get back on track.

Persus13. They're the only one I've haven't been unsure of so far, and their content today didn't make me feel better about Secretdorf Yesterday. Might as well start a whole new wagon with 2 and a half hours left.

-shrug- agree to disagree. You've seen my math, if you don't agree that it's a scenario worth considering that's up to you.
I don't even believe it matters to you, so I'm not really sure why I'd trust your math. For you, anyone else also works.
-angry dog noises-

Weren't you the one talking about how I was townier than many actual towns and that I clearly had the town's best interest at heart?

Why the change?
Because you're telling me what's right for Town, but what you're really thinking about is what's right for you. That's sort of the game we're all playing here. To you, it's a surefire vote. Either it hits useless Town or it hits useless scum. Both of those are okay for you. But, one of those is slightly better for me than the other.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #934 on: March 03, 2021, 05:31:47 pm »

The way I see it:

If Lucky is town then I'm in trouble and Webadict is either town or completely played me as scum. Blue is most likely just third-party.
If Lucky is mafia then I'm going to have unpleasant guests tonight, Webadict is probably scum...hmm..., and Blue is either third-party or also scum.



Just gonna shit this out here
I plan on posting a D1 analysis when I'm at a computer.
I wanted to look at the Day 1 end vote count some more when I had the time, which is now hopefully.

It's Day 1 here so just looking for initial scum, everybody on Day 2 should be the same alignment besides one person at most.

Blue was confirmed town so we can make the tally look like this:
The Scribe's Tally Sheet
BluarianKnight: 5: Jim Groovester, juicebox, Luckyowl, Toaster, Vector
juicebox: 4: 4maskwolf, notquitethere, webadict, TricMagic
Luckyowl: 3: BluarianKnight, IcyTea31, ToonyMan
Toaster: 1: Persus13
*TricMagic was voting Juicebox, they unvoted to prevent ties apparently.

My reads on Day 1 would look like this:
The Scribe's Tally Sheet
BluarianKnight: 5: Jim Groovester, juicebox, Luckyowl, Toaster, Vector
juicebox: 4: 4maskwolf, notquitethere, webadict, TricMagic
Luckyowl: 3: BluarianKnight, IcyTea31, ToonyMan
Toaster: 1: Persus13
Which doesn't feel right at all. This would mean town had most of the scum team on the chopping block, only being bested by every scum player voting Blue.

It does make me more confident in the Lucky lynch though. It also makes me more townlean Juice...plus if Juice/Caz is town then that's more evidence that CFDs are complete trash garbage.
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Mephansteras

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #935 on: March 03, 2021, 05:34:51 pm »

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
Jim Groovester: 2: notquitethere, Persus13
Luckyowl: 5: 4maskwolf, BluarianKnight, Luckyowl, ToonyMan, TricMagic
notquitethere: 1: Jim Groovester
Persus13: 1: webadict
Toaster: 2: IcyTea31, Vector
ToonyMan: 1: Caz
Vector: 1: Toaster



Day ends in ~2.5 hours.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #936 on: March 03, 2021, 05:36:30 pm »

If we're going to get all meeetaaa here then let's assume Lucky is actually a town priest:

Meph probably didn't expect the town priest to claim on Day 1 for no reason. This is because they would become a free double convert at night for scum, which could throw off the balancing if Meph didn't account for it...or maybe he did if Blue is telling the truth about being Lone Vampire. Bam, Lucky is a scum convert.
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BluarianKnight

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #937 on: March 03, 2021, 05:38:15 pm »

I'll bring this up, but something doesn't sit right with me here;

NQT's Tally Sheet
Jim Groovester: 2: Persus13, notquitethere
Luckyowl: 4: 4maskwolf, BluarianKnight, Luckyowl, TricMagic
notquitethere: 2: Jim Groovester, ToonyMan
Toaster: 2: IcyTea31, Vector
ToonyMan: 1: Caz
Vector: 1: Toaster

I'll put it down now - I think Toony's a for-sure convert. He's pushing hard for the Luckyowl lynch, which a lot of folks (after rereading) are now pretty against, and he's pushing for it now with his recent vote - which makes Luckyowl 5.

His last vote though, shown above - is NQT. Who I still, legitimately, don't see as scum. I don't get that vibe.

There's five voted on Lucky atm.

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
Jim Groovester: 2: notquitethere, Persus13
Luckyowl: 5: 4maskwolf, BluarianKnight, Luckyowl, ToonyMan, TricMagic
notquitethere: 1: Jim Groovester
Persus13: 1: webadict
Toaster: 2: IcyTea31, Vector
ToonyMan: 1: Caz
Vector: 1: Toaster



Day ends in ~2.5 hours.

Me and 4mask are survivors - or at least claimed as such. Luckyowl, Toony, and Tric - I'm willing to give Tric a null-vote for now, as I haven't put a keen eye on his recently, but this to me seems like throwing Lucky under the bus to give Toony legitimacy. I'm not falling for it.


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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #938 on: March 03, 2021, 05:40:36 pm »

So Blue did get converted to scum.
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Toaster

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #939 on: March 03, 2021, 05:47:36 pm »

Your argument is that BK is scum because... he voted you and thinks you're a convert?


I think you're a convert too, Toony.  Are you going to vote me?
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webadict

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #940 on: March 03, 2021, 05:48:16 pm »

I can't even think of a good defense for Luckyowl, but I'm not joining that wagon. If Luckyowl is scum, just end my tortured existence.
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Caz

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #941 on: March 03, 2021, 05:48:52 pm »

Uh, I'm here btw. Reading/making post
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IcyTea31

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #942 on: March 03, 2021, 05:49:12 pm »

I don't like Vector's case on Toaster.

Toony on NQT was also out of left field.

Caz on Toony is an interesting tinfoil, but I don't think it's looking at the right changes.

Luckyowl wagon is dumb.

Probably won't be around for the last moments, already past midnight.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #943 on: March 03, 2021, 05:51:05 pm »

I would be less paranoid if Lucky was here!!

I think you're a convert too, Toony.  Are you going to vote me?
It doesn't matter, every scum member is going to push this narrative as well as hapless town. The way rumors work is you just say them over and over. I'm just glad it means scum will have to worry about me at night...
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webadict

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #944 on: March 03, 2021, 05:53:21 pm »

I would be less paranoid if Lucky was here!!

I think you're a convert too, Toony.  Are you going to vote me?
It doesn't matter, every scum member is going to push this narrative as well as hapless town. The way rumors work is you just say them over and over. I'm just glad it means scum will have to worry about me at night...
You have literally been saying Luckyowl and Vector over and over, so why did you vote NQT?
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