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[Toaster]

LuckyOwl is a bad lynch since he's almost certainly not the converter.  Without any counterclaims we can safely assume he did the res.


NQT:

If there was a conversion, the conversion probably happened in this pool. Everyone else is much more lynchable. That all said, we actually want to lynch the converter as a priority. Let's assume the converter is someone moderately suspected from outside this pool:

Toaster -  Unknown
IcyTea31 - Unknown
--
juicebox - claimed dreamwalker, let's see if they follow through on a dream
Persus13/Secretdorf - highly unlikely due to lynch composition
notquitethere - not me
TricMagic - mess of fakeclaims but probably not the converter because of it
BluarianKnight - confirmed dreamwalker
Luckyowl - confirmed priest (though I suppose there could be another priest in the scum team that he's claiming over)
4maskwolf - third party

We'll all be kicking ourselves if Toaster is evil in this game again. Why shouldn't we eliminate you, Toast?

Why should you eliminate me?  You're not actually providing any evidence.  We're on the same page when it comes to prioritizing the converter, but we can't just point fingers and accuse with no reasoning behind it.

Also, see underlined bit above; could you elaborate on that, please?


4mask:

TBH if I was the devil I'd claim, it's a pretty annoying role to try and win with, is only marginally different from a survivor in terms of "should it die", and needs to townside here anyway in case there's a conversion gimmick going on because they need to keep the game going.

I wouldn't even be mad if you were the devil.  You're my top pick for it but I'd rather see a survivor go than a devil; devil can be worked around more easily.  If you claimed it, I wouldn't care.



But yeah, we need to find the converter*.  Let's quickly review who it can and can't be:


100% Not Converter:
BluarianKnight.  Died and flipped.

Almost Certainly Not Converter:
Luckyowl.  Claimed Priest, the res of BK, and hasn't been counterclaimed.

Unlikely Converter:
4maskwolf.  Claimed Survivor in first post; extremely audacious claim from a converter.
TricMagic.  Softclaimed no abilities in first post, later evolved to strongly implied Werebear.

Less Likely Converter:
Juicebox.  Claimed Dreamwalker, something that is not easy to keep fakeclaiming.


Everyone Else:
webadict
Vector
ToonyMan
Persus13
Jim Groovester
IcyTea31
notquitethere


I'm not the converter, for completion.   Someone is a Devil.

Have I missed anything?  Obviously I need to dig in to the "everyone else" column; that will come later.



Devil:  Do you want to claim?  It'd eliminate you as a converter and frankly the town has bigger issues than you.

[Toaster]

I realize I never posted the footnote anywhere.  Let me fix that.

*Yes, maybe something else happened and a kill was blocked or foiled or something.  Until I see evidence of that (no, not asking for claims) I'm going to assume the worse; a conversion scum team.

[4maskwolf]

Couple things, Toaster.

One: two of the cult-types (charismatic cult and dark magus) are one-shot converts, therefore finding the converter is essentially a moot point at this point (at least as far as stopping conversions go). The third, vampires, which are a true cult and thus a worthwhile converter to find... This is probably a little angly, but I don't think we're looking at one just from a "evolving Bay12 meta" perspective. Full cults are really obnoxious to play into; full cults that keep the roles of people they convert are absolutely brutal. And, largely, over the years full cults have fallen out of favor and have been replaced by one-shot conversions for games that want to keep a bit of a cult flavor or give the wolves a little extra power. I'm pretty sure that a full cult hasn't been seen in supernatural since Supernatural 4 for a reason, and that Meph's experiments with the charismatic cult and dark magus were in part ways to try and work around the fundamental issues of a proper cult.

Personally, I'd argue that it's more likely the kill got blocked in some way last night than that we have an old-school vampire cult on our hands.

Two: Tricmagic has claimed knight, though whether you believe that claim or still think he's a softing werebear is up to you. Regardless, knight is a not-terrible fakeclaim for a converter because it discourages SK kills and doesn't have any difficult fake claims to keep up and I'd argue he belongs one level lower on the "who's the converter" scale.

[notquitethere]

I liked that last Toaster post. Methodical, focused. I didn't particularly like the Vector post, there'd no rationale for the vote other than vague pressure, it's hard to parse.

Toaster, I explained about the lynch composition thing on D1. Secret was the default lynch candidate for too long on D1, so I think it very unlikely he's on a scum team. Same reasoning I had about Toony in BYOR15.

--

ICT, you jumped off the juicewagon on D1 which indirectly led to Blu's death. Was "pushback from Vector and Toony" all the info you wanted to collect? Why not follow through on Juice?

Luckyowl

Juice wagon saw pushback from Vector and and Toony. Thanks for the CFD.

[4maskwolf]

Supernatural 1 Werewolf Leader
Supernatural 2 Cult Sexton
Supernatural 3 N/A (two player team)
Supernatural 4 N/A (two player team)
Supernatural 5 Werewolf Knight
Supernatural 6 Charismatic Cultist and Cult Knight
Supernatural 7 N/A (one player team)
Supernatural 8 Cult Leader
Supernatural 9 N/A (two player team)

I made an assertion yesterday that in the standard-style 3-person scumteams Meph always puts a "designated killer" role to carry the NK.

Utterly irrelevant atm but I'm bored and its interesting to know that my observation is accurate.

[Vector]

I don't think we have to kill the converter today, but I think that using process of elimination to figure out who they are, or organize ourselves to keep PoEing after tonight, could be a good idea.

I didn't get anything like enough sleep last night. I'll probably have to wait to post substantively until tomorrow.

[notquitethere]

I did a bit of classic Unique Targets analysis. I'm not posting the full results until at least D3 (4mask tried to game this metric in a previous game + you guys don't probably read it when I post stuff like this) but what I will say is:

- If I'd bothered doing this yesterday it would have been absolutely categorically clear that Blu was town. He's golden by this measure.
- Either might have been converted, but yesterday Vector and Webadict were most likely town. Their range of targets was wide, the suspicion flowed deep from them.
- Jim and Toony are in the same tier as Lucky and Juice. Really narrow lynch focuses. This doesn't always mean scum, but it often does.

[Persus13]

NQT and 4mask, I'm a bit worried you all are trying too much to outguess Meph here. I do agree that there are possibilities outside of full-blown Vampire Cult. If someone did block someone last night for instance, they should probably do so again to verify.

And if Blu's actually a Lone Vampire, he can start blocking people as well.

[ToonyMan]

But yeah, we need to find the converter*.  Let's quickly review who it can and can't be:

I agree with your list (although I wouldn't be surprised if Tric thought it would be funny to claim VT as a Cult Leader). I think a converter would most likely be one of the following:

webadict
Jim
NQT
IcyTea
Vector
Persus
Toaster
TricMagic

Out of these six I suspect Vector, Persus, and Toaster the most.

I am not a Devil.

As for Night 1 converts I suspect these players the most:

Luckyowl - free twofer
Toaster - for the memes
Webadict - towncore
Jim - towncore

stuff

I also don't believe Meph would use full cults again. This is almost certainly a one-shot conversion or the kill didn't go off for some reason.


We either have no Monster Hunter or they're smart enough not to blind fire on Night 1.

@MOD:
Can a town priest's res fail so hard they bring back a townie as mafia? Can a mafia priest's res fail so hard they bring back a townie as town?

I don't think either of these cases have ever happened. Either the res succeeds or they come back third-party.

In other words, if Lucky is town then Blue is 100% a Lone Vampire. If Lucky is mafia then Blue is possibly a Lone Vampire.

[ToonyMan]

I did a bit of classic Unique Targets analysis. I'm not posting the full results until at least D3 (4mask tried to game this metric in a previous game + you guys don't probably read it when I post stuff like this) but what I will say is:

Wow scummy. Holding information hostage to stay alive.

[webadict]

Alright, finally off work... For a bit.

Anyway, first I think NQT is probably right, though I can't be sure to what degree. Here's what is apparent to me:

I've been looking at some of the previous games for information, and I think I have to fix some of my read information from Yesterday. First, obviously, I can't rely on my Town reads from Yesterday to work reliably Today (and my interaction data is probably useless (except that read on Toaster v. Blue, that's still legit)), but also, I'd like to move ToonyMan down substantially past what I'm giving to Vector and Jim Groovester. Vector's getting a bit of a pass here because I don't think they were converted. ToonyMan is definitely a top contender for being converted because they play scum well, and I've been less impressed by their play Today than Yesterday, but honestly, the only people who have been playing Today are NQT, who I'm still slightly suspicious of, and 4maskwolf, the guy who isn't even Town.

Honestly, it's probably because this feels like Day 1, Part 2, but if that's the way we gotta treat this, fine, I'll start it up. Let's rock, guys.

NQT says highest chance of convert is in me, ToonyMan, Jim, and Vector. I actually agree here, and that's partially why I'm gonna lower ToonyMan's Town equity here. I believe that we need to soft reset our reads from Yesterday until the Day has picked back up. I'm going to shield Vector for now because I just feel that's the wrong convert target.

So, I'd like to propose a Toaster elimination.

PPE: I unironically agree with ToonyMan's list with the obvious caveat that my name swapped with theirs... And probably not Toaster. Also, Luckyowl is out or else they would never have claimed the Devil deal. Call that a Luckyread. If you're gonna go for someone that isn't in the Towncore, I'd have NQT or someone really obscured like Persus13.

[notquitethere]

Just to be crystal clear: I am not the Devil. If I were one, I might claim such a role to avoid being shot at night by the mafiateam, though, to be fair, I'd probably lay low if I was medium-suspected, so as not to draw too much attention.

Lucky, what exactly did the Devil offer you?


Toony

Wow scummy. Holding information hostage to stay alive.

Not at all.
1. It's information in the vote record anyone can see.
2. No one else believes in this stuff but me, so who am I holding it hostage from?
3. The information is more useful to me if scum don't know to tailor their actions to what they think I'm looking for. 4mask can confirm this last point, as he's done exactly that before. I want to be able to perform the same analysis on D2, so I'm not sharing what exactly I'm looking for/what I'm including or discluding until another day has passed.

[Mephansteras]

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
4maskwolf: 1: Luckyowl
IcyTea31: 2: notquitethere, Persus13
juicebox: 2: BluarianKnight, TricMagic
Luckyowl: 2: 4maskwolf, ToonyMan
notquitethere: 1: Vector
Toaster: 1: webadict


Day ends ~5pm Pacific Wednesday

@MOD:
Can a town priest's res fail so hard they bring back a townie as mafia? Can a mafia priest's res fail so hard they bring back a townie as town?

Yes to both.

[ToonyMan]

Toony

Wow scummy. Holding information hostage to stay alive.

Not at all.
1. It's information in the vote record anyone can see.
2. No one else believes in this stuff but me, so who am I holding it hostage from?
3. The information is more useful to me if scum don't know to tailor their actions to what they think I'm looking for. 4mask can confirm this last point, as he's done exactly that before. I want to be able to perform the same analysis on D2, so I'm not sharing what exactly I'm looking for/what I'm including or discluding until another day has passed.

I disagree. I just recently saw you pull this card on Day 3 of MVM2.

@MOD:
Can a town priest's res fail so hard they bring back a townie as mafia? Can a mafia priest's res fail so hard they bring back a townie as town?

Yes to both.

Welp.

[4maskwolf]

I did a bit of classic Unique Targets analysis. I'm not posting the full results until at least D3 (4mask tried to game this metric in a previous game + you guys don't probably read it when I post stuff like this)

.

3. The information is more useful to me if scum don't know to tailor their actions to what they think I'm looking for. 4mask can confirm this last point, as he's done exactly that before. I want to be able to perform the same analysis on D2, so I'm not sharing what exactly I'm looking for/what I'm including or discluding until another day has passed.

I plead the fifth.

I actually don't know specifically which game you're referring to, but I can believe I did it: screwing with NQT's mech reads for fun and profit sounds like something I'd do.

NQT and 4mask, I'm a bit worried you all are trying too much to outguess Meph here. I do agree that there are possibilities outside of full-blown Vampire Cult.

You're talking to two of the most mechanically and pattern-oriented mafia players on Bay12. Of course we're going to read through previous games and try and read into them. And honestly... we're probably right, all things considered. I'll eat my hat if there's a vampire cult or more than two starting third parties in this game.

Of course now that we've brought up these things Meph might screw with them in the future just to mess with us, but still.

Toaster - for the memes

If Toaster didn't start as a wolf I don't think he was converted last night, along with NQT he was on the list of "veterans getting heat" on D1 which makes him an undesirable conversion, very old memes (that only veterans with enough sense not to convert him would really remember) aside.

but honestly, the only people who have been playing Today are... and 4maskwolf, the guy who isn't even Town.

-dabs-

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
4maskwolf: 1: Luckyowl
IcyTea31: 2: notquitethere, Persus13
juicebox: 2: BluarianKnight, TricMagic
Luckyowl: 2: 4maskwolf, ToonyMan
notquitethere: 1: Vector
Toaster: 1: webadict


Day ends ~5pm Pacific Wednesday

@MOD:
Can a town priest's res fail so hard they bring back a townie as mafia? Can a mafia priest's res fail so hard they bring back a townie as town?

Yes to both.

-angry wolf noises-


Persus13

Lucky has apparently decided that silence is the best option so I'll talk to you instead. I have been... less than impressed with your play thus far this game, and more specifically today. Mind giving me three people you're suspicious of, three people you think are town, and why?