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[Secretdorf]

FOU claim might clear things a bit as they might be a PI?

[TricMagic]

I'm honestly surprised you think tying a vote is that simple, and a bit suspicious too. I wonder how well that will work out for you.

[Secretdorf]

Me: so confident I know the rules of this game, having played it loads before, I don't even bother reading the OP closely
Also Me: robber is basically a drunk that can look at his card, right?

Dumbtelling is instalynch in some places, Caz said that. Anyway, it looks like you made quite a mess of fakeclaims.

I'm honestly surprised you think tying a vote is that simple, and a bit suspicious too. I wonder how well that will work out for you.

You sound worried. Toonyman is sus to you when they're already confirmed by leafsnail and nobody has claimed seer other than them. Will you claim seer now or will NQT say that seer was a middle role?

[Leafsnail]

Now for analysis. For now I'm going to assume that all town roles that can't convert themselves to scum are telling the truth. There is a possibility that some town players are pulling a gambit but I assume they will correct themselves later. If so, I will re-evaluate.

Let's start with what I know:
ToonyMan was a Seer
I was a Bodyguard
Both of us started the game as town. ToonyMan could've been converted by an Alpha Wolf but he'd have no way of knowing that, so he'd still be playing as if he's town. So I am putting him down as effectively confirmed town.

From the perspective of other players, I appreciate that there is some possibility that we are both wolves. But note that ToonyMan was the first player to claim (excluding TricMagic's nonsensical claim), so it would be a huge gamble for him to potentially drag both wolves into difficult fights with other players who actually have (or who have seen) the Seer or Bodyguard role.

So the question becomes, who out of the remaining 5 players should we lynch?

I'll start by defining an umbrella term of "Lying role". These are roles that have a reason to lie about their claims - IE roles that know (or potentially know) they are not town.  I will try to identify who in this game has these roles. You can work out who has these roles through logic, but identifying whether someone has one of the roles we want to lynch or one of the roles we don't want to lynch will be trickier.

They are:
- wolves * 2
- PI who targeted a wolf or a tanner
- Robber who targeted a wolf, tanner or minion
- tanner
- minion (note that minion can win by getting themselves lynched, so they can play out pretty similarly to a tanner)


TricMagic: gave a nonsensical claim that clashes with confirmed town TM's. Confirmed lying role. I am inclined to think Tanner/Minion (note that lynching the Tanner causes the wolves to win, so from a town perspective those two roles are mostly the same) because it seems like an unnecessary risk to take as wolf, but there is no real way to resolve this without invoking WIFOM.

LuckyOwl: claimed to be a PI who became a Tanner. Confirmed lying role. This one is pure WIFOM - is it a wolf claiming tanner to avoid being lynched or a tanner double bluff? I don't really buy that the claim was an honest mistake by someone who still thought they were town - you'd expect LO to claim a target in that case. In addition the claim is contradicted by Secretdorf.

Secretdorf: Claimed Apprentice Seer. Said Tanner is in the middle. If Secretdorf is town this rules out the possibility of either of the above players being tanners, although note that they could still be bad lynches if they are a minion/a robber who swapped a minion. Is a lying role if NQT isn't.

NQT: Also claimed Apprentice Seer, seeing Alpha Wolf in the middle. Is a lying role if Secretdorf isn't.

FoU: Unclaimed. His claim should clear things up and allow for more analysis.

[notquitethere]

That's good stuff Leafsnail, though you made one mistake: according to the OP (and the game this is based on) werewolves also lose if they lynch a tanner.

[ToonyMan]

I think TricMagic is a Minion, but we shouldn't vote them either way.

If we could somehow tie the votes between Secret and NQT that would probably guarantee a town win, but I don't think we can actually do that. Leafsnail's vote prevents lynches and there's at least 3 players lying.

That's good stuff Leafsnail, though you made one mistake: according to the OP (and the game this is based on) werewolves also lose if they lynch a tanner.

He definitely meant to say Minion there.

[Leafsnail]

I have just thought of some further analysis for Secretdorf. I am currently inclined to believe him (and therefore, also inclined to not believe NQT).

Let's imagine Secretdorf is a wolf. He's made a claim that is pretty likely to get LuckyOwl lynched. Isn't this actually really bad for him? If Secretdorf is a wolf and knows LuckyOwl isn't one, then there's a high chance from dorf's perspective that LuckyOwl really is a Tanner. And if Secretdorf's claim gets LO lynched then the wolves automatically lose. Making a claim that potentially removes the possibility of Tanner from the town's mind is extremely dangerous for him.
I guess he could be gambling on LO being a minion but that seems really bad. Note that if Sd is actually a wolf then he'd have no way to actually know that Tanner isn't in the game - he'd be taking the risk of getting a tanner lynched and losing.
He could also be a tanner/minion but in that case you'd expect a more risky claim. There's always the possibility of WIFOM but it'd be dangerous to avoid attention as a jester when two people have already gone swinging for the fences with bad claims.

That's good stuff Leafsnail, though you made one mistake: according to the OP (and the game this is based on) werewolves also lose if they lynch a tanner.

Yeah I realize now that I mistyped - I meant to say that lynching the Minion causes the wolves to win.

[notquitethere]

Dumbtelling is instalynch in some places, Caz said that. Anyway, it looks like you made quite a mess of fakeclaims.

Well, only a bit of a mess. I thought Robber acts like drunk does in the actual game and so was going to fake claim that I'd peeked Troublemaker but ultimately I decided against that.

Not as big a mess as you made claiming a role you don't have when three other players hadn't claimed.

Can't wait for Fallacy to wake up and get here.

[Secretdorf]

First, you decided to fakeclaim having peeked troublemaker but later you decided that you should fakeclaim alpha wolf, because you are that and so nobody can come out and say 'hey I'm the alpha werewolf, how can that be middle role!'
Well that clears one thing that you were alpha werewolf, though a robber/a troublemaker FOU might have targeted you, so we'll still need to vote with caution.

[FallacyofUrist]

I'm reading what was posted in my absence now, folks. I didn't get the robber or troublemaker roles, though, I'll say that in advance.

[ToonyMan]

I didn't get the robber or troublemaker roles, though, I'll say that in advance.

So you're a Wolf/Minion or Lucky is lying about being a Paranormal Investigator. Got it.

[notquitethere]

Oh thank god for that.

GAME SOLVING REVEAL

There are 5 wolf aligned players in the game, with only Leafsnail and Secretdorf town.

Tric, Fallacy or Owl is alpha, they alpha'd Toony into a wolf. I was Paranormal Investigator and investigated Toony and turned into a wolf.

Unless I've misunderstood it, we need to be wary of the bodyguard so we can't all vote the same player. We need to split our vote 3/2 on town. Town only have 1 vote, Superdorf's but Leafsnail will make the second wagon the winning wagon.

[Secretdorf]

Anyone else still know they're town?

[Leafsnail]

I think this is NQT deciding he'd rather act like a jester than try to win a 1v1 fight.

[FallacyofUrist]

Definitely a crazy ploy. I'm pretty sure I'm town.