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Author Topic: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Game Over: Death & Law) Mafia Win!  (Read 6934 times)

webadict

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2021, 03:54:12 pm »

I'll be honest in saying I was a little tempted to hammer because I am unsure if you didn't know that because you were a Townie...

The void calls to me sometimes.
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Vector

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2021, 04:06:57 pm »

Trying to cover your ass for being unable to hammer SD, wubba?
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webadict

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2021, 04:27:41 pm »

Trying to cover your ass for being unable to hammer SD, wubba?
Lol, you know me... I was debating in my head if I pull a Luckyowl and just go for the 50:50, but I feel like that would undermine thespirit of the game. Or maybe I just wanted to have a real challenge and let you unvote to strum your emotional heartstrings.
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Vector

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #18 on: February 01, 2021, 05:48:37 pm »

Uh-huh >_>

OK. Well, this definitely sounds like scumadict, but I'm going to wait until I can pound Secretdorf a little to vote ya.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

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webadict

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2021, 05:58:44 pm »

Uh-huh >_>

OK. Well, this definitely sounds like scumadict, but I'm going to wait until I can pound Secretdorf a little to vote ya.
I'll be honest and say that I'm a little hurt that you think that, Vector. Why, me? Scum? That's just not like me. Especially after I didn't slam the hammer down. So, in that specific case, would it be that my target is Secretdorf, or am I just a callous old man, leading you by a string?

Now, on the other hand, I'd prefer nobody voted me because I'm quite Town, and I'm at least 66% likely to be, as well, since your little foray, am I not? You know statistics. What are the chances that I'm Town versus not Town after you threw that vote on Secretdorf? If I'm Town, I have no reason to hammer, and if I'm scum, then my target would be Secretdorf, no? You've essentially eliminated a possibility, which is that I'm scum with you as my target.

Here's the conundrum I'm faced with though: Why did you vote at all?
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Vector

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2021, 06:11:38 pm »

Indeed, here's the possibilities:

1. Secretdorf is scum
2. You are scum and Secretdorf is your target

Obviously that doesn't eliminate you as being potential scum. It just means we know something about who you can't hammer. I don't trust "statistically oriented" Web. We all know that any given player has a 66% likelihood to be town.

Why I voted was because I'm a dumbass who automatically RVSes, and I voted Dorf because it will be easier to read their alignment than yours :I If they're scum, GG, we'll take 'em out. If they're town, GG, we'll take you out.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

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webadict

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #21 on: February 01, 2021, 06:18:49 pm »

Indeed, here's the possibilities:

1. Secretdorf is scum
2. You are scum and Secretdorf is your target

Obviously that doesn't eliminate you as being potential scum. It just means we know something about who you can't hammer. I don't trust "statistically oriented" Web. We all know that any given player has a 66% likelihood to be town.

Why I voted was because I'm a dumbass who automatically RVSes, and I voted Dorf because it will be easier to read their alignment than yours :I If they're scum, GG, we'll take 'em out. If they're town, GG, we'll take you out.
Yes, yes, I know statistics doesn't prove I'm Town. Really, I just brought it up because I like to hear myself type.

So, here's the thing with that reasoning and why I was considering hammering: Your role PM would indicate a player you couldn't lynch, which would subconsciously indicate you being Town, no? If you're Town, and I'm Town, it gives me a good reason to Hammer.

But, you unvoting makes no sense, really. It doesn't indicate that Secretdorf should vote back, but it does show that I am either unwilling to lynch Secretdorf because their Town or because they are my target as Mafia. But, no matter what, it would be silly to say that my wanting to lynch is somehow scummy. As Town, I do have to come up with a reason to vote.

So, what would you do if I voted Secretdorf first instead?
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Vector

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #22 on: February 01, 2021, 07:21:32 pm »

OK, this is more like it. It's not that I think your wanting to lynch someone is scummy, it's that you went back after the fact to overexplain your not hammering. Not wanting to quickhammer a couple minutes out of the gate is a clear town move, but moving to defend yourself despite the clarity of that action sends the opposite message. If you're scum, you need to get someone on your side; and as town or as scum, you know that I'm a good choice (see the last two games LOL).


Regarding your question about the vote: if a new player, say, LuckyOwl, had voted one of us as scum, I would've assumed that this was a move to get around their inability to hammer. Either that, or just a noobtownie being an aggro dumbass like I was.

If you had done that early vote . . . honestly, I have no fucking clue. I don't think it would have told me anything about your alignment. As town, it's a mistake; as scum, it's a mistake, or a powerplay vaguely like claiming miller. It's a cup of WIFOM.

Remember, you're more willing to extend your trust to other players than I am; or more specifically, you look for reasons to trust people and build a towncore, which isn't my MO. My mind definitely wouldn't have gone to the place of "Webadict's subconscious is town," it would have gone to "how is this advantageous for Webadict?"


Finally, about the unvote: Once I realized my mistake, I wanted to make sure that voting/RVSing wasn't normalized. Obviously it's pretty harmless in terms of it not instantly losing us the game with my vote on Secretdorf, but if Secretdorf showed up, followed my lead, and voted me -- and then you hammered me -- GG town.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

Vector

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #23 on: February 01, 2021, 07:29:54 pm »

If you're scum, you need to get someone on your side; and as town or as scum, you know that I'm a good choice (see the last two games LOL).

Hold up, this is wrong. If you're scum, you need to either get me lynched (i.e. not on your side) or be the first vote on Secretdorf. But based on your play, you can't be scum. You would be hassling me, not trying to ally with me; or trying to get a first vote put on Secretdorf.

This clears you enough for me -> Secretdorf.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

webadict

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #24 on: February 01, 2021, 07:46:53 pm »

Right, but it doesn't fully clear me. I could technically still be scum with Secretdorf as my unlynchable, and I'm still at that 50:50 stage since Secretdorf hasn't spoken just yet.

Remember, you're more willing to extend your trust to other players than I am; or more specifically, you look for reasons to trust people and build a towncore, which isn't my MO. My mind definitely wouldn't have gone to the place of "Webadict's subconscious is town," it would have gone to "how is this advantageous for Webadict?"
This is true, and it has downsides to it that are easily exploitable. See, the problem here is that I could expect some type of slip-up like that from a Town player that's newer, but the same cannot be said of you. But, that's the burden I have to deal with now. I now have to wait patiently for SD to show up, but I can't see fault in your logic.

If you're scum, you need to get someone on your side; and as town or as scum, you know that I'm a good choice (see the last two games LOL).

Hold up, this is wrong. If you're scum, you need to either get me lynched (i.e. not on your side) or be the first vote on Secretdorf. But based on your play, you can't be scum. You would be hassling me, not trying to ally with me; or trying to get a first vote put on Secretdorf.

This clears you enough for me -> Secretdorf.
Right, but this puts you in exactly your hypothetical position. That's what makes this difficult is that you know exactly why it's a semi-confirmable play.
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Vector

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #25 on: February 01, 2021, 08:49:03 pm »

*shrug*

What can I say, it doesn't do much for me, but if this is still scumadict I'm talking to, I like being the first vote on Secretdorf. Then I can say neener-neener while you're unable to hammer. And little danger of SD showing up and deciding we're RVSing.
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webadict

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #26 on: February 01, 2021, 09:34:14 pm »

*sigh*

I really wanted to vote on the second post just to have a game where it ended in like 5 minutes from the start because it would've been really funny.

Sadly, I am bound to play to win, and that would only be a... 60:40 chance to win. While you do seem to have a Town motive, and I could understand why you wouldn't remember the rules, as the Town role PM does not contain the caveat that the Mafia role PM does, I'm still not able to fully discount you being scum. Plus, you know that I'm a buddy-buddy guy, and that I'd have issues reading you regardless, so this gets to be a big ol' readingfest when Secretdorf gets here.

If it makes you feel better, even if Secretdorf votes you, I still would not hammer, because I am Town. I doubt I could convince you of that particular logic, but it is the truth.

And technically, there is also the way to semi-confirm you back, but it relies on me trusting you to be Town or being 50% lucky that your unlynchable target is Secretdorf. But, is that the route I want to take? It relies only on my understanding your thoughts and patterns and how you'd work as Town or scum. Can I trust that you wouldn't manipulate me? No, I think you'd definitely aim towards my more trusting play and use it against me.

But, let's do a dive into how I think you thought: You receive a role PM. It's received and you immediately vote. This... is a very uncharacteristic thing to do as scum-Vector because scum-Vector would see the Semi-Priest role PM, but fits very well into how town-Vector would play this out. You realize your mistake rather quickly and unvote, but whether this is because you have remembered the rules or have been reminded somehow is up for debate. However, you now realize that a new potential piece of information has been learned accidentally: I either cannot hammer Secretdorf or I am Town, and thus you replace your vote. This all fits a town-Vector MO fairly well. scum-Vector might use this play as a means to foster an air of untrustworthiness, but likely still replace the vote. It does make me suspicious of the first longer post before revoting, but town-Vector would also realize and readjust their read to fit the available information.

Thus, with all the available information I have it somewhat leads me to believe you're Town, but that still is unfair to Secretdorf to not have a potential chance to respond.

If I had to guess, I'd be at around... 75% chance you're Town, especially since your play matches how you behaved in FMV2. I can't be too careful, because I respect your ability to bluff, but I haven't seen it in a while, so I don't want to underestimate.
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Vector

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #27 on: February 01, 2021, 09:44:25 pm »

Yeah, I mean: look, I'm pretty sure that you're town based on the available data -- to be clear largely behavioral -- (and obviously I know I'm town based on the available data, LOL), but I agree that hammering before scum even has an opportunity to post would be a pretty shitty thing to do. I kind of think we need do need to hammer instead of running the clock run out so that scum can't tie votes at the last minute (if Secretdorf decides to pull a Juicebawks), but it's obviously waaaaay too early for that.
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Vector

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #28 on: February 01, 2021, 09:45:43 pm »

I kind of think we need do need to hammer

Oops. EBWOP: I kind of think we do need to hammer
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

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pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

Secretdorf

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Re: The One I Won't Kill: 3-Player Mafia! (Day 1: New Moon Meetup)
« Reply #29 on: February 02, 2021, 04:42:05 am »

Secretdorf, are you scum?
No, I'm town. However your vote is bad and it looks like you don't care if I'm scum or not, which is more likely when you are mafia!

Hmmm... I hope it is not Web not voting because I haven't posted yet. You think web is town, is that because you can't hammer them. So far I think ... Vector is 55% scum and Webadict is 45% scum. That means... Vector is mafia semi-priest. Vector, you should unvote me as web could be mafia being nice and not hammering, especially with them wanting to hammer.
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