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[hector13]

I’m alright with you hammering I had forgotten SHAD0W’s a mason lol

I need to go to bed, wow.

[SHAD0Wdump]

Heeeeeey SHAD0Wdump.

Who do you think is the scum team? How many scum do you think there are?

I'm still in belief that there is three. But... My thoughts about what really is going on a fractured terribly.

 I'm quite convinced either Toony or Luckyowl are one.

 I'm worried one of NQT or you are one. But not strongly any more

 If Toony is discovered as one, or we get two deaths at night, I'm highly inclined that Secretdorf is one based on Toony's interactions/unlikelyness of both SK and survivor.

 And I am almost positive one of either Webadict, Toony, or Vector are scum entirely based on them being mafia elites.
 I'm inclined to believe Web is based on priot strangely passive behavior and weak arguments + notable explosive distraction from said arguments against his passivity.
 I'm a bit worried Toony is one since he's gone under everyone's radar.
 And I'm positively terrified of Vector, as I have nothing on them and nobody is questioning them.

[Toaster]

hang on I'm typing

[Toaster]

And I am almost positive one of either Webadict, Toony, or Vector are scum entirely based on them being mafia elites.

That's terrible logic

[SHAD0Wdump]

Would you want to go up against all three of those as town?

[webadict]

hang on I'm typing

Alright, passing the hammer to you, then. I'm out.

[Toaster]

hang on I'm typing

Alright, passing the hammer to you, then. I'm out.

I'm typing my conclusions but I'm not voting Caz

[Toaster]

Shadow:

I am going to say this about the Toony/LuckyOwl mason pair. I'm heavily inclined to believe at least one is scum if there is only one kill tonight. If there's two kills I'm more 50/50 on if one is scum or neither.

 You two better hope two people die at night, because I see no other reason for 'non-sk' to be specified for two townies.

I made a player a Brother (win if X player wins) when X was town, effectively making the Brother a townie, just without telling said Brother.  I wouldn't assume anything at this point.



Okay so, doing Ye Olde Rereading and... I'm not sure I see the case on Caz?  It kind of ballooned out of nowhere.  Let's look at that vote tree (I have provisionally added Web since he has indicated a willingness to hammer:)

juicebox, Secretdorf, notquitethere, ToonyMan, Vector, Hector13, "Web"

Five of the six people under the microscope today are on there... everyone but Caz.  Interesting.  Also, our "survivor".

Juicebox is easy, since there are exactly two posts of value to examine.  The first is some reads.  Yay, whatever, nothing incredibly insightful.  Next, Juicebox votes Caz because...  Well, in the read post we have:

1. At this point, I would say that Wuba is a scumread. They've really only pushed LuckyOwl and SecretDorf, who are both newer players and easy targets. Furthermore, I'm pretty sure his LuckyOwl case partly stems from LuckyOwl's actions in previous games, which I don't think is quite fair to LuckyOwl, and it is not really a very good case. I'm also suspicious of Caz, who seems to me to be active lurking, and not really trying to put pressure on anyone or build a case.

I'm reading Shadowdump as town at the moment, they seem to be genuinely trying to find scum. I also have a slight town lean on Toony and LO. Everyone else I'm null on at the moment

Why vote Caz ("suspicious of...") over Web ("scumread")?  No information is given.


Case rating: 3.5/10


Secretdorf:  I'll just sum it up this way.

Oh wow, Caz, many of our reads are same. I think I can town read you now as you have provided some content which I think comes from town. Vote on LO was self preservation vote as I didn't have a town read on Luckyowl at that point.(and people were joining the wagon on me rapidly... For some unknown reason)

Can I do anything to alleviate your suspicions?

Caz
Not sure if I am allowed to scumhunt. Lynching Caz would be better than lynching Webadict.

This is a complete 180 I see no reason for.  I'm not going to put much effort into this other than to point it out, however.

Case rating: 1/10



Next is Notquitethere.  NQT first mentions Caz here, with a post content ratio analysis.  The idea behind this is reasonable, but he pegs Caz at 8 "useful" posts.  I think 8 is a reasonable number for this point in the day; I doubt I have that many.  I think the content of the useful posts is more indicative than the total ratio;  I'd have more one-offs if I could sit around and F5 the thread all day.  The actual vote shortly follows:

Why Caz? What's the word for when a player posts a lot but doesn't really say anything most of the time? Because that's Caz.

NQT has gone from "a lot of Caz's posts aren't quality" to "Caz's 'quality' posts aren't really quality" in a fairly short period of time.  NQT has an actual case here, but it pings off to me.


Case rating:  6/10 on paper but my gut gives it 2.5/10



ToonyMan!  Toony's case is quick and easy.

It also really bothers me that Caz thought Web and Vector "might be masons"?
This comment really comes off odd to me, Caz?

Caz.

I mean... okay?  Toony confirms it was because Caz mentioned masons right before the mason claims came out.  It's a case, but a weak one.  Getting to the point it feels more like a bandwagon, IMO.


Case rating:  3/10



Vector states agreement with Web's logic here.  Vector, from what I can recall, is not afraid to take someone's arguments, agree with them, and act accordingly in public; I note this because it was standard practice when I last played to have your own reasons for everything.  In any case, Vector hitches the wagon to Web here.


Case rating:  Webadict/10


Hector13's train is interesting.  A lot of posts early on, generally thin on substance.  We get to some meat here with an attack on NQT, which gets confirmed here.   All well and good, Hector's happy voting NQT.   Until he isn't.  Let's quote the reasoning in full:

I can see where y’all are going with Caz but I had a crappy morning and I don’t know how many votes are on them.

Consider this intention to hammer.

Okay, who has voted here by then?  It's Secret, Juice, and Toony.  A crappy Survivor vote, an accusation of active lurking from someone splitting the line between active and passive lurking, and Toony's "I find this odd."  In other words, this vote is poo.


Case rating:  2/10



Webadict is willing to hammer.  I totally believe he means it when he says it.  But how's his case?


Okay well I need to wrap this up because Web's about to hammer, but TLDR his case is based on his town reads of almost everyone else in the group and he sees Juicebox and Caz as the most likely scumspects of the group.  This is fairly consistent with his behavior, and he does provide some read-based reasoning to go with his process of elimination pronouncement.  What I would like to do, but isn't going to happen tonight, is also go over his townreads to see if everything is wholly consistent, but I find his case (including his attack of Caz being unwilling to claim) sound enough.

Case rating:  8/10, provisionally based on his townreads.



So much for me avoiding walls of text.  What's the TLDR here?


The Caz case sucks, mostly, with the exception of Web (and Vector by proxy.)  NQT at least makes an effort from his, but it strikes me the wrong way.  Secretdorf's vote is bad but he's not town so expecting a good case from him is too much.  Hector's case is the worst of the alleged townies, with Toony not far behind.  Juicebox isn't pulling his weight either.  My conclusion is the scum team is three of the following four:

Hector13
ToonyMan
Juicebox
NQT




I admit I might not be right about Caz, but I'm prepared to reevaluate my suspicions based on his flip.

[Toaster]

Would you want to go up against all three of those as town?

God no.  It doesn't affect the logic of that statement one bit, though.  This is effectively Gambler's Fallacy and it's a logical fallacy for a reason.

[webadict]

Toaster, if you hammered Caz because I told you to, nobody would blame you. I'd take the flak.

But, alright. I appreciate the case on the cases.

ToonyMan's the only one where I actually disagree, in that I sincerely believe that it pinged off because of the nature of their Masonry.
Secretdorf is TP, so they'll vote literally anyone.
juicebox would actually be my preferred lynch, but mostly because they're basically AFK.
hector13 is definitely my fourth place pick, though.

Hammer time, guys.

Caz.

[FallacyofUrist]

Mod: I meant are silencer type roles possible in this game?

Forgot to get to this earlier. I'm going to go with 'no, silencers violate basic decency and should be restricted to bastard games'. As mentioned in Mostly Vanilla Mafia 1, mild to moderate post restrictions are possible, but would never be as crippling as a silence effect.

Luckyowl (0):
webadict (2): Luckyowl, Caz
Toaster (0):
juicebox (0):
TricMagic (0):
Secretdorf (0):
Vector (2): TricMagic, SHAD0Wdump
notquitethere (0):
Caz (7): Secretdorf, juicebox, notquitethere, ToonyMan, Vector, hector13, webadict
ToonyMan (0):
hector13 (1): Toaster
SHAD0Wdump (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not voting (0):
7 to hammer.

In the end, it was decided that Caz should be lynched. They stared at the accusing faces of hector13, notquitethere, and the other five people who had placed their votes upon them. They dared not resist as they were marched to the guillotine established so prominently as a feature of the house.

Perhaps, it was theorized, it wouldn't be sharp after all this time spent not maintaining it. Perhaps it would be a merely moderately painful dull impact.

Thunk.

Caz's head rolled.

Or not. It was a grim scene indeed, but it would be completely worth it if only they were one of the murderous infiltrators.

But unfortunately, a thorough search of Caz's belongings produced no such evidence, only medical supplies that would be useless without a deft hand to use them.

Caz was town.

3-Shot Doctor (town)

(3-Shot, Night) Protect [target]: You protect your target from standard kill actions performed tonight.

The sun set. Tired bodies ambulated away from the scene. Nobody cared to look at Caz's body.

Night 1 has begun, and will end 11 PM, Tuesday, Central time - or when I receive all actions and have the time to process them. If you do not intend to act, let me know this and it will make my processing easier and faster.

[FallacyofUrist]

Processing night actions. Please refrain from posting in between now and the Day 2 starting post.

[FallacyofUrist]

Ten people converge in the large lounge of Fallacy's mansion, getting cups of water and settling in for the long discussion sure to happen today.

Wait. Ten?

After a search, Vector is found slumped against a wall, with a bullet wound on their head. True proof of evildoing by someone among you.

Vector was town.

Jack of All Trades (town)

(1-Shot, Night) Traffic Analyst [target]: You learn whether your target has the ability to communicate with other living players in a quicktopic or not.
(1-Shot, Night) Track [target]: You learn who, if any, your target visited this Night.

(1-Shot, Night) Jailkeep [target]: You lock your target in jail, both blocking their action tonight and protecting them from standard kill actions performed tonight.

(1-Shot, Night) Protect [target]: You protect your target from standard kill actions performed tonight.

Luckyowl (0):
webadict (0):
Toaster (0):
juicebox (0):
TricMagic (0):
Secretdorf (0):
notquitethere (0):
ToonyMan (0):
hector13 (0):
SHAD0Wdump (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not voting (10): Luckyowl, webadict, Toaster, juicebox, TricMagic, Secretdorf, notquitethere, ToonyMan, hector13, SHAD0Wdump
6 to hammer.

Discussion begins, more fervent than before.

Day 2 has begun, and will end 1 AM Saturday, Central time, or when a hammer is reached.

[Vector]

[ToonyMan]

Couldn't fall asleep after seeing that Day 2 would start soon.

Quick thoughts:

Luckyowl seems legit.

Somebody gave me a hotdog.

Secretdorf: share your results, now.

I think Juicebox and Hector are mafia.

Case on Juicebox:

#1 - Was this a slip? Want to share what "chat" this is with Secretdorf?

#2 - You posted six times on Day 1. I think that's less than mafia!Leafsnail in BYOR15. You didn't post at all on Sunday. You only came back to vote Caz, who flipped town.

More after going to bed, zzz...