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[Caz]

Everyone, particularly veterans: Does Webadict's explosion look more town or scum to you?

Scummy. Can we also policy lynch people who burst in with unpleasant insults? Insults are also not an argument.

Probably Secretdorf is telling the truth and he might be of use to town. So we can maybe consider him a problem for later.

The idea of policy lynching LuckyOwl is just so lazy to me (hi webadict) and it's worrying that Vector is positive on it as well, it doesn't look good for them. Lynch them because they actually look scummy maybe??

About the idea of juicebox having a post restrictio - they posted RVS way early on. Looking up their profile shows they haven't been active since January 23rd.

So, webadict is looking the worst to me at the minute.

[hector13]

I would be 1,000% on board with a webadict policy lynch right now. If we were playing in person, he’d be asked to leave at minimum, there’s absolutely no reason why it should be different here.

[notquitethere]

wuba

Vector[...]Other than that, I would say to be cautious of Caz. They're active, but they don't make compelling cases on who they believe to be Town or scum.

Do you think a Vector lynch is achievable today? We've got less that 24 hours, and you're lynch-lead. If you want people to switch to her, you're going to have to make a better case than your gut. I'll take a dive back on Caz.

Also, as an addendum to your point, you should be wary of people lynching Secretdorf for the same thing because it's very similar.

Yeah SD is a cut and dry case of just letting them live until they leave the game (except... if we get a load of SK kills, and then maybe reconsider...). I don't think Survivor is a very pro-game role for this reason, as I've said on this forum before.

I'm willing to fuck over the Town if that's all it's gonna be with you

I'm not sure this is giving us compelling reasons not to lynch you today Wuba.


Luckyowl

I'm basically gonna flip town. I'm pretty much town.

Are you a survivor? Would you say if you were?

SHAD0Wdump

Webadict is probably a mafia-ally hanging back until he can identify who he's working with so he doesn't hunt his own win condition.

I could see a beefy two player mafia team with a mafia ally. Functionally doesn't make much difference for town, we still need to lynch at least three people.

Everyone, particularly veterans: Does Webadict's explosion look more town or scum to you?

I could just about see a town!webadict exploding in frustration... but it feels like he almost wants to be lynched. Only the mafia-ally alignment would have any incentive to play that way though.


Hector

@NQT: I think survivors aren’t town, for suresies :p

Well sure, but when do you lynch a claimed survivor? I would say: after Day 4 if they're still in the game after saying they'd leave by then.


This is the current vote spread. The lack of a solid counterwagon worries me. I'm very keen to see how things shake out at the end of the day.

LuckyOwl, juicebox, you're both falling into the do-nothing camp that scum!Jim was in in the last BYOR. We've got less that 24 hours left.

Spoiler: Votes (click to show/hide)

Luckyowl (1):
webadict (5): notquitethere, TricMagic, SHAD0Wdump, Caz, hector13
Toaster (1): ToonyMan,
juicebox (2): Vector, Secretdorf
Secretdorf (1): Toaster,
notquitethere (0):
Vector (1) : webadict
Caz (0):
ToonyMan (0):
hector13 (0):
SHAD0Wdump (0):
No Lynch (0):

Not voting (2): LuckyOwl, juicebox
7 to hammer.

[TricMagic]

Then tricmagic for wild claiming, buddying, and throwing crazy ass wifom in self defense, too many factors together for me to trust.

I'll note that was Offense, not defense, thank you very much. And all WIFOM is insane, I just put together all of it in one place to showcase why the accusation of my lying was itself WIFOMy.

[juicebox]

Sorry for my absence, I just really wasn't feeling it yesterday. It doesn't look too bad, I should be able to catch up quickly.

[TricMagic]

Shifts vote to Vector for reasons.

At least it isn't as bad as BYOR was recently. Also, that type of explosion I see and just ignore as best I can. It doesn't really do anything productive for others.

[hector13]

Shifts vote to Vector for reasons.

What are you hoping to gain here? We’re heading to day end, you haven’t asked any questions, you haven’t justified this vote at all so I can only conclude you want to lynch Vector. Why?

[webadict]

That's nuclear to you guys? That's not even 3 AM Plate Shatter in the Kitchen. That's barely Break Your Finger for the Remote.

There's no point in my being alive anyway. There are two obvTowns: ToonyMan and TricMagic. There is one claimed and likely confirmed Survivor: Secretdorf. There is literally a missing person: juicebox. There is LiabiliTown: Luckyowl and SHAD0Wdumbass. There is lazy: Caz. There is likelyTown: notquitethere. There is Town-enough-to-matter: hector13.

I am a Hot Dog Vendor, which may or may not be a custom role. If you know what that is, good job. If not, go fuck yourself. It's easily self-role-confirmable.

I'm not making another case today. I have work, and I honestly don't really care if I get lynched. If you wanna lynch me, just make sure to lynch SHAD0W afterward. They're probably Town, but they only voted for Townies (well, hector13 might not be Town, but at least they're Townish), and being that bad is lynchable. Oh, and Vector probably still is scum.

[notquitethere]

Caz Analysis
I counted 33* posts from Caz. Looking through them, I asked myself, "Does Caz actually want to find scum?" I took a broad view approach to this by characterising the posts into the following three categories. When I was in doubt, I tried to err on the generous side.
Low effort, uninformative (commentary, jokes) [4],[5],[6],[7],[9],[11],[21],[27],[28][29],[31] = 11 posts, 33.3%
Low-medium effort, informative (replies, low-ball questions) [2],[3],[8],[10],[12],[15],[16],[17],[19],[22],[24],[25],[26],[30] = 14 posts, 42.4%
High effort, informative/accusatory (i.e. more than 3 sentences, actual questions or accusation) [1],[13],[14],[18],[20],[23],[32],[33] = 24.2%

So, one third of Caz's content is straight up chaff, and three quarters of it is low effort. Slightly less than a quarter of their game is spent doing anything that looks like developing cases or finding scum.

Is this telling? I'd need to run the same analysis on some other players to get a sense, but I would support a Caz lynch. They don't spend a lot of time actually being town.

*It's possible I missed one or two, this would have been easier with the lurkertracker.
**PPE: some interesting non-Caz revelations I will respond to shortly

[notquitethere]

Web, does your role work like the Fruit Vendor? There's no mention of hot dog vending on the mafiawiki and the OP said most, possibly all, the roles would be on there.

Tric, you swap from your suspect onto the suspect's suspect. By this are we to assume you side with Wuba now?

[TricMagic]

Shifts vote to Vector for reasons.

I have my reasons, and webadict looks like he is getting lynched at this rate. No need to keep it there and let a quickhammer occur. But I don't really want to leave my vote empty either.

[notquitethere]

Tric, Will you explain your reasons on D2 if not now?

--

As we're heading into the last phase of the day. I've got some questions:

- Why is Toaster voting a survivor still?
- What's the deal with the Vector counterwagon? (It rests just on Web's gut + Tric's mystery reasons)
- What will juicebox do now they're back in the thread?
- Will Luckyowl use their vote productively and take ownership of their case?
- Was Caz's low-content high-volume play typical for a town!Caz or indicative of a passive scum game?

[Secretdorf]

Caz
Not sure if I am allowed to scumhunt. Lynching Caz would be better than lynching Webadict.

[Secretdorf]

If I could confirm a player who would it be?

[juicebox]

So yeah -- juicebox, talk to me.

1. Who's scum?
2. What do you think about the survivor and miller claims?
3. What do you think about the LOLYLO situation?

I'll answer this one first, since these are all very pertinent questions.

1. At this point, I would say that Wuba is a scumread. They've really only pushed LuckyOwl and SecretDorf, who are both newer players and easy targets. Furthermore, I'm pretty sure his LuckyOwl case partly stems from LuckyOwl's actions in previous games, which I don't think is quite fair to LuckyOwl, and it is not really a very good case. I'm also suspicious of Caz, who seems to me to be active lurking, and not really trying to put pressure on anyone or build a case.

I'm reading Shadowdump as town at the moment, they seem to be genuinely trying to find scum. I also have a slight town lean on Toony and LO. Everyone else I'm null on at the moment

2. The survivor claim would explain Secredorf's actions in chat. I do agree that it's probably best for town to get rid of them as soon as possible though. Keeping a third party around isn't going to help town out in the long run. As for Tric's claim, I don't get the feeling that this is ScumTric fakeclaiming. I don't think it's an idea they would have come up on their own, and I doubt that a scumpartner would have told them to do it, claiming miller without provocation draws a  lot of attention that scum wouldn't want to have on them this early.

3. I do still think that LuckyOwl is a liability at LYLO. I don't support a D1 LO policy lynch just for that reason though. I think it's more important at this juncture to begin to build actual cases and try to hit someone that we're sure is scum, than to pursue that kind of lynch. That being said, I would like to see LuckyOwl make some improvements to their game, and make some better attempts at scumhunting.