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Author Topic: BYOR 15: Game Over - Mafia Win (Kinda?)  (Read 111344 times)

NJW2000

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1410 on: January 06, 2021, 09:49:13 am »

I agree with some of this, the reasoning is a little fuzzy at other points, I suspect. I'm not going through this with a fine-toothed comb, for reasons explained below.

The thing about moderator error is a little unpleasant to think about - can't really have Wuba confirm stuff like that in the thread, as that's free info. I'd be happy if we wanted to ask him to though... a sportsmanship thing really. It does rather neatly explain some stuff though, so I'm inclined to believe it. Note that it being true does NOT clear heydude - mafia claiming vig would basically have to try to shoot Nirur at that point.

Heydude: if we lynch scum, you SHOULDN'T kill anyone tonight. We're pretty good at stopping the mafiakill, unless it's a daykill or you're doing it, so we'll probably end up in a 5v2 situation D4, which is much better than the likely alternative of 4v2 if you do kill.




Screw all this, I can't read people based on standard thread analysis, because there are too many new players and older players with a great deal more style substance. I can't read people based on mechanical solving because this is a high-powered closed semi-bastard setup, apparently with moderator errors.

I'm going with gutreads. So don't ask me to explain my voting choices if you like reasonable explanations.

People I'm willing to lynch:
Vector
LuckyOwl
FoU

heydude if there's no explanation for non-heydude scumkills not occuring in the night - waiting for a reply from wubba on what happens if a kill and a block have the same priority. Nevermind, Wuba confirmed that priority 1 kills could be blocked by priority-1 actions. So... possibly Tric's been saving us repeatedly! I'm pretty on board with the "don't lynch TricMagic" point above, although not entirely for the same reasons.

Nirur Torir if none of the above possible.
Will this post make me look hilariously stupid once the game resolves? Yes, yes it will, I'd imagine.




Anyway, I hope this claim kills any idea of me being the mafia's dedicated nightkiller since my kills rely on spending a consumable resource that can technically be replenished, but is overall worse than a standard mafia night kill.
So you realise that people may not believe your claim, right  :P


FoU: does this claim jive with your investigation results?

 

Note: for anyone wondering, if different actions like a block and a kill occur at the same priority that would normally interfere with one another, something like natural action resolution occurs. Webadict confirmed this.


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TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1411 on: January 06, 2021, 10:08:18 am »

Leafsnail. At this point can't quite trust someone who hasn't been around at all. That gives 7, and I can protect 3 of those. If anyone has pons left, use No Bonk Badges on people. I'd kill Vector given they still won't give the mask to me... And I haven't gotten the Brewing Hat to make it 3 protects, a delay, and a roleblock. Nor the Sprint Hat. Which kinda tells me they are in the hands of mafia. If anyone can stop a roleblock against me, I'd suggest doing so.
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heydude6

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1412 on: January 06, 2021, 10:18:16 am »

Hey Webadict, can you tell me how much time is left in the day?
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TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1413 on: January 06, 2021, 10:36:19 am »

Hey Webadict, can you tell me how much time is left in the day?
I would estimate 9 hours left..
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webadict

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1414 on: January 06, 2021, 10:53:25 am »

Hey Webadict, can you tell me how much time is left in the day?
Hey Webadict, can you tell me how much time is left in the day?
I would estimate 9 hours left..
What Tric said.
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Luckyowl

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1415 on: January 06, 2021, 10:56:49 am »

Leafsnail. At this point can't quite trust someone who hasn't been around at all. That gives 7, and I can protect 3 of those. If anyone has pons left, use No Bonk Badges on people. I'd kill Vector given they still won't give the mask to me... And I haven't gotten the Brewing Hat to make it 3 protects, a delay, and a roleblock. Nor the Sprint Hat. Which kinda tells me they are in the hands of mafia. If anyone can stop a roleblock against me, I'd suggest doing so.

IcyTea31 didn't want to give you his hat and he flipped town.
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Luckyowl

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1416 on: January 06, 2021, 11:19:22 am »

I think I got two confirm mafia. NJW and Heydude6.

NJW: When you replied to my plan. You grumbled, and dismissed it as a newbie plan and it may be. Yes. But if you were town you would've guide me to a better thought process.

Heydude6: The same as NJW. You try make me look foolish instead of tackling what I say. Plus. I don't like your logic.

TricMagic is more likely townie because Jim said so.

Vector is not townie because IcyTea31 inspect must have been fraudulent by hats.

But couldn't hats also mess with TricMagic's inspect?

So inspect the possibility of NJW, Heydude6, and TricMagic to be the remaining scum team. More likely Leafsnail is third party.

So I won't vote for leafsnail and will place my vote on Heydude6. If he flip town then I'll willingly choose to be lynch if I survive to the next day.  But there's so much inconsistency in his post. I don't trust him.
I agree with some of this, the reasoning is a little fuzzy at other points, I suspect. I'm not going through this with a fine-toothed comb, for reasons explained below.

The thing about moderator error is a little unpleasant to think about - can't really have Wuba confirm stuff like that in the thread, as that's free info. I'd be happy if we wanted to ask him to though... a sportsmanship thing really. It does rather neatly explain some stuff though, so I'm inclined to believe it. Note that it being true does NOT clear heydude - mafia claiming vig would basically have to try to shoot Nirur at that point.

Heydude: if we lynch scum, you SHOULDN'T kill anyone tonight. We're pretty good at stopping the mafiakill, unless it's a daykill or you're doing it, so we'll probably end up in a 5v2 situation D4, which is much better than the likely alternative of 4v2 if you do kill.




Screw all this, I can't read people based on standard thread analysis, because there are too many new players and older players with a great deal more style substance. I can't read people based on mechanical solving because this is a high-powered closed semi-bastard setup, apparently with moderator errors.

I'm going with gutreads. So don't ask me to explain my voting choices if you like reasonable explanations.

People I'm willing to lynch:
Vector
LuckyOwl
FoU   


heydude if there's no explanation for non-heydude scumkills not occuring in the night - waiting for a reply from wubba on what happens if a kill and a block have the same priority. Nevermind, Wuba confirmed that priority 1 kills could be blocked by priority-1 actions. So... possibly Tric's been saving us repeatedly! I'm pretty on board with the "don't lynch TricMagic" point above, although not entirely for the same reasons.

Nirur Torir if none of the above possible.
Will this post make me look hilariously stupid once the game resolves? Yes, yes it will, I'd imagine.




Anyway, I hope this claim kills any idea of me being the mafia's dedicated nightkiller since my kills rely on spending a consumable resource that can technically be replenished, but is overall worse than a standard mafia night kill.
So you realise that people may not believe your claim, right  :P


FoU: does this claim jive with your investigation results?

 

Note: for anyone wondering, if different actions like a block and a kill occur at the same priority that would normally interfere with one another, something like natural action resolution occurs. Webadict confirmed this.





Of course the three people I read as town are the one up next the choppy blocks. No explanation on those threes, but the other two get a semi explanation.
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TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1417 on: January 06, 2021, 12:00:37 pm »

Right, luckyowl, you are marking yourself as a member of the mafia trying to disprove that.

Jim uses the Scanner. It targets me. Someone used the Sprint Hat on me so it went to them. Who used it? This is the proof held by another who will not speak up. And no other actions were registered on me that night as far as I know. Fact is, the one who used the Sprint Hat was also the one who stole it, but it is likely to lead to death and confusion.

Same for switching me and a different target, someone would speak up at some point. My role is known by this point. Vector's is not.

We have me, Leaf, Fal, Heydude. Who else has revealed their role? I'll check. As is, those who  haven't or delayed the day by going after someone and saying good enough are the issues.
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TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1418 on: January 06, 2021, 12:01:28 pm »

This doesn't even get into the fact you asked how long we have left. The short answer is not enough.
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Vector

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 2 - Fixed The Glitch
« Reply #1419 on: January 06, 2021, 12:03:05 pm »

I'd be good on a massclaim of night actions/roles at this point. I think that knowing if Toaster was redirected, or having scum's fake actions on record, would be very valuable right around now.


I'll start. I'm town. My role is "light shenanigans," with shenanigans level 9 (yes, I know. bad joke). The core of my role is that I can target someone, including myself, and modify their role by up to two of eight themes . . . lightly. I can use this role modification once per phase.

Yesterday, during Day Phase, I targeted myself and gained an auto action. I can go into more detail about the auto when it becomes necessary. That auto action currently has no effect.

During Night Phase, as previously mentioned, I wanted an action I could actually use right now, so I targeted myself again and put on the Dweller Mask. I was blocked and didn't gain any actions.

This is me early on D2.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

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TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1420 on: January 06, 2021, 12:07:27 pm »

I happen to still be up for a vector lynch too, since Heydude does leave him as valid for performing the nightkill, yet Juicebox is the only one who died, and of HP loss which fits Heydude. Vector meanwhile was roleblocked. Twice apparently, both nights. But how did he receive a roleblock today if his action was delayed?...

That role doesn't really say anything Vector. Mostly cause you were roleblocked. Right now we have no mafia kill accounted for. Protection could account for this, but also never getting the chance.
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Vector

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1421 on: January 06, 2021, 12:11:22 pm »

LO, I'm willing to trust your inspect results. If you're scum then I will say "good game, you deserved to win," with pride. Heydude6.

FoU, you said your inspect resolved. What were the results? Massive FoS for not telling us sooner.


But how did he receive a roleblock today if his action was delayed?...

I don't really know how the RB mechanic works, but the point is that my action (double-targeting to give myself new moves), which was confirmed by Nirur Torir, didn't successfully give me new moves.

I mean, it's pretty obvious that if I were on the scumteam I couldn't have NKed last night, because there was a No Bonk badge on me that you, yourself, purchased.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1422 on: January 06, 2021, 12:19:04 pm »

Badges can be daytraded using your action. Not something I brought up before, but that's no defense if two weren't placed. Beyond which there would be no way those two abilities could generate last night without improving their priority.

My main issue with you is the Mask you hold.
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Vector

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1423 on: January 06, 2021, 12:25:17 pm »

Bah. No, I need to clarify: I assumed I was roleblocked when I initially posted, but I didn't get an explicit roleblock confirm from Web (he said it "felt different," which I thought meant someone else was RBing me). But what happened was that the expected result of my actions didn't trigger, presumably because NT got the actions I was gifting to myself.

Now, as for why my actions weren't delayed: I still don't know that. I can confirm that the Butterfly ability NT has is of a similar flavor to my other generated abilities.


@Tric: additionally, please recall that on D2, ICT and 4mask confirmed that I was targeting myself, because I was Watched. As they correctly listed everyone else who actioned me, you can confirm (again) that I wasn't trying to NK.

Please try to hunt scum instead of throwing the game over me refusing to give you a hat.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

Vector

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 3 - Rampage!
« Reply #1424 on: January 06, 2021, 12:33:14 pm »

Badges can be daytraded using your action. Not something I brought up before, but that's no defense if two weren't placed.

. . . . . . . then why all of this song and dance about making everyone buy no bonk badges
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".
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