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[4maskwolf]

4maskwolf:

4maskwolf:  Could I get your current reads of Jim and Fallacy, please?

Still gonna need this.

I know. I’m PFP at work so I’m stuck on real-time posting atm, don’t have the time to give them a solid read through till I’m home.

Got your time yet?  It's been a few hours.




That's the main post where people are missing what I'm asking for, but I still want to do some more digging.

I've been rereading the thread in between posts here.  I've also kind of been waiting for Jim to do... well, anything, really, other than bitch about how much work this game is.  Like, I get it, I wasn't super fond of the spazfest of the early game or the massive WoT blocks that came after but I'm at least putting in effort to skim every post.

[FallacyofUrist]

You're still doing it.  Are you getting anything out of it?  At this point you should be able to provide examples.

I'm pretty sure I already answered this question.

Weak initially. Stronger consequences later. As I don't want to expose too much of what I can do to the scum, like how LuckyOwl has, I'll have to call spoilers for now. I still think it was worth doing, though. One, it was fun, and I'm trying to have fun here. Two, I know I'm likely to attract some actions tonight because of my play today. All according to keikaku ~

Though I answered it when Heydude6 asked it, so you get a pass.

[webadict]

Webadict:

There are four Mafia players. Lynching a Jester would not end the game unless Shenanigans. You can get a Lurkertrack in a bit.

Are the four Mafia players on the same team?

I mean, that's something you'd have to ask them, wouldn't you?

[FallacyofUrist]

[b=Current Reads List]
Town: Dolores, Vector, Leafsnail, LuckyOwl
Scum: Jim Groovester
People of Interest (people I have opinions on, but not strongly one way or another): heydude, IcyTea, FallacyOfUrist, ToonyMan
Neutral: Everyone else
[/b]

I do find it interesting that 4maskwolf didn't put IcyTea in his Town list when he posted his reads list, prior to the mason claim.

You're right, I didn't.  Because then I would have to explain why I thought he was town without revealing we were masons and at the time he was being a literally ball of spaz in-thread.

Your hypothetical masonchat must be hilarious, then.

[NJW2000]

Luckyowl: what happened to trusting IcyTea absolutely? Seems that that went out the window?


Nirur Torir, you man of mystery you.

Dolores, Tea, and NJW: You seem to think Toony is scum, and a more compelling lynch than Tric, a very likely third party. Your reasonings feel like weak standard D1 guess lynches.
What success % odds do you give that Toony is scum, and why is lynching him at those odds our best D1 play?

Do they.
At this point? 85% or so at least.
Our best D1 play is not something I claim to know. I think it would be better for me to support using the lynch to kill Toony than the alternative, which at the moment seems to be TricMagic, someone I'm reading as 3rd party or lethally blase town. I'm reasonably confident Toony on the other hand is scum:

I caught him making a dubious deduction. Over the course of more than one IRL day, I questioned him and followed up my questions repeatedly, trying to get to the nub of the issue I had with him: a townread based on fallacious logic. When I finally got through the slightly-missing-the-point replies (after some other cases had been made on him, mind, including one based on the thread I was pulling) he finally admitted that his logic did indeed exhibit this flaw. This was not due to him being scum, oh no, it was due to his day ability that let him read heydude as town/benign*. He also links a message that apparently evinces this read.

This is a useful result! If Toony flips town (I think we get alignments despite No Spoilers), he clears heydude to some extent. Only problem: I can't really see why he didn't reveal it immediately, or at some point during the kerfuffle with Icytea, or after that was over - isn't confirming someone sooner rather than later good play? In fact, he only mentions it to defend himself. My vote on him, whether or not it achieved the pressure that produced this weak final defence, is at least justified by it.

Vector's case on him also seems to have some merit, as may IcyTea's, though I honestly couldn't blame someone for playing badly in response to that self-voting nonsense.

Now if you need a wall of text and quotes to believe my Toony vote has genuine reasoning behind it rather than a desire to bandwagon, tough. Go read dolores'.

NJW: How do you know heydude actually received a contract PM at the time specified?
TM: Because ICT claimed he received a PM at the same time and I don't think both of them are mafia together [and therefore lying to cover for each other]

While this was part of my question, it was not all of it, and misses the key aspect which was used to hound Toonyman into giving a bizarre claim about having a previous ability-based townread of heydude. My question is better understood as: how do you know heydude received a PM at the same time and why is an instant claim notably townie? Reread the thread if necessary.

-

Oh neat, BYOR15 is a Bring Your Own Bastard. As a bastard myself, I feel very welcomed.

Pity about the mason claim, I was fantasising about lynching at least one of them at some point~
Interested in the cult speculation, but nah. I would say it would be fifty to one that the hydraform stuff is IcyTea being in a cult.

As I regard the day as pretty much over, I think I'll go have a look at the fries thing that started here, or perhaps look at this spate of votes on Luckyowl... sometimes things strike me as significant for reasons that only become clear later on. I reckon there's not much I can add to any of the cases, and I should focus on the body of the thread rather than the present. Fingers crossed I can finally get back to my analysis. I'll still answer questions, of course.

[4maskwolf]

Warning - while you were typing 16 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.




I find it very believable that IcyTea and 4mask are on the same team.  Which team... my gut's trying to tell me that we have two mafia teams here.

Side note: If I'm reading this correctly, you're saying that mafia!IC and mafia!4mask, knowing for a fact that there's another scum team out there (since our scum team would only have two members but webadict said there were four scum), would just decide "let's claim a size two mason team, the exact size of the team the other scum team is looking for, on D1 while under no pressure" and just assume that everything would work out for us?

Sounds like suicide with extra steps tbh.

[b=Current Reads List]
Town: Dolores, Vector, Leafsnail, LuckyOwl
Scum: Jim Groovester
People of Interest (people I have opinions on, but not strongly one way or another): heydude, IcyTea, FallacyOfUrist, ToonyMan
Neutral: Everyone else
[/b]

I do find it interesting that 4maskwolf didn't put IcyTea in his Town list when he posted his reads list, prior to the mason claim.

You're right, I didn't.  Because then I would have to explain why I thought he was town without revealing we were masons and at the time he was being a literally ball of spaz in-thread.

Your hypothetical masonchat must be hilarious, then.

You have no idea...

[FallacyofUrist]

IcyTea31: Could you explain what your Hydraform ability do? You don't have to go in details just give us a skeletal overview on it. You said it can help both Mafia and town. If that's correct, in what way can it help town? In what way can it help Mafia?

Whoever you heard that from, isn't me. If you're in some kind of secret chat, whoever is claiming to be me is an imposter.

I don't have an ability by that name.

That's what my sqaud modifier picked up when I used my action on TricMagic. If it's not your ability then I guess it hints your role to me. So are you a Hydra?

This is the big loose end here. IcyTea's claimed that it's the name of an ability that was copied and given to LuckyOwl, but LuckyOwl themselves has made it pretty clear that that isn't what their action did. While I'm not sure at this point whether IcyTea is a cult leader or a mason member, I do think they do possess an ability called Hydraform and are desperate to prevent information about it from getting out.

[4maskwolf]

IcyTea31: Could you explain what your Hydraform ability do? You don't have to go in details just give us a skeletal overview on it. You said it can help both Mafia and town. If that's correct, in what way can it help town? In what way can it help Mafia?

Whoever you heard that from, isn't me. If you're in some kind of secret chat, whoever is claiming to be me is an imposter.

I don't have an ability by that name.

That's what my sqaud modifier picked up when I used my action on TricMagic. If it's not your ability then I guess it hints your role to me. So are you a Hydra?

This is the big loose end here. IcyTea's claimed that it's the name of an ability that was copied and given to LuckyOwl, but LuckyOwl themselves has made it pretty clear that that isn't what their action did. While I'm not sure at this point whether IcyTea is a cult leader or a mason member, I do think they do possess an ability called Hydraform and are desperate to prevent information about it from getting out.

Loose Lips Sink Ships.  Even in less bastard BYORs there have been abilities that do bad things (tm) if a bad actor knows your role and/or ability names (see: Cheeetar's Narrator SK role in BYOR 13, which could use one of its actions for free if he knew that information).

[dolores]

Spoiler: Leafsnail (click to show/hide)

To me the P2 exchange can be broken down to this:
NJW: How do you know heydude actually received a contract PM at the time specified?
TM: Because ICT claimed he received a PM at the same time and I don't think both of them are mafia together [and therefore lying to cover for each other]

And that doesn't follow? ICT could have just lied and heydude6 could have just lied if he had inside knowledge about the contract (e.g. he was on the scumteam).
Here's the events regarding claimed times:
-heydude claims a time, first
-ICT claims the a actually slightly different time, second
If heydude6 is lying, he must have been broadly aware of when the contract would be sent (and perhaps his time is closer when it was sent off) - which would require him to be the contract sender or on it's team.
If ICT is lying, he was aware of heydude6's claimed time and could base his claim on that - this places no requirements on ICT, and could even have been done as town (why tho).

To me it seems like you're just reading "In my opinion, this makes it incredibly unlikely they're on the same team." in isolation and attacking that, rather than trying to understand what that line means given the context of the rest of the post.

That's my problem with P2, which was not presented with any more context than I quoted in the spoiler above (specifically: ToonyMan also unvotes me, votes tric, and tells him 'No, screw you.')
Let me repeat myself
"Toony's response is to shift the goalposts of the heydude6 townread to the assertion that heydude6 is not on the same team as ICT. These things are only equivalent if ICT is unequivocally scum, and yet ToonyMan moves his vote from one player that is not ICT to another player that is not ICT.
ToonyMan's response does not address the accusation that his assumption that heydude6 is not supported by the logic of his first post, and instead brings up a non-sequitur."
P1 is a townread on heydude6. The bolded above is the qualification for that townread added by P2.

I'll also take the opportunity to state that ToonyMan already said I was right. His defense is that he had mechanical information on heydude6's alignment, just that it's not from being scum. However, his response being incredibly duplicitous and not addressing the point directly is super scummy.

I feel similarly about your objection to P3 - TM is spelling out the scenarios where heydude can be scum, and due to their weirdness discarding them as unlikely.

ToonyMan completely ignores some possbilities including one NJW was asking about but hadn't at that point made explicit:
"Why is the possibility that Heydude is scum and worried that a townie sent the contract (forcing him to reveal it immediately) so hard to grasp" (from P4)
The fact that toony didn't consider the scenario where heydude6 is scum and not in a team with the contract sender implies, again, that he's been assuming that heydude6 is town.
Which, again, he admits to.

No, I do not think Tric is capable of constructing a lie this elaborate as town, nor do I think his role as claimed makes any sense as a townie.

Do you think Tric is capable of creating a misunderstanding this convoluted, especially when people are reading into his off-hand comments so seriously?
His role as claimed makes perfect sense as town. It adds items and other crazy closed setup nonsense to the game and he's better at using (the items associated with his role) than the rest of us (he gets free actions to do it with etc.); which means he's not particularly able to do anything which other townies aren't already able to do but his role has net benefits by interacting with it's flavor-mechanics. Not unusual for this sort of game at all.
He has explicitly claimed not to win by getting all the hats; he has explicitly denied that.

I don't actually win by collecting all the hats you know. If I did I never would have brought it up day 1.

What do you think is TricMagic's third party wincon?

In any case all my logic when playing mafia has always been predicated on townies telling the truth - I remember discussing this with you in a previous game.

I think you're going to continue to have an increasingly hard time playing like that.

ToonyMan

This is such a horrendously bad take I have difficulty seeing it as anything other than a scum knee-jerk. Protect him from what, the one person voting him? There are plenty of legitimate concerns that could be raised around our claim, but “you’re just trying to protect him” after the wagon has already collapsed isn’t one of them.

This is literally the opposite of what is happening (anti-wifom planned reveal aside). The best reads on 4maskwolf in this game were "I forgot he was playing", and I think more people were waiting on answers from him than on anyone else besides maybe Tric and you.

Sorry, this is a misunderstanding I should have cleared up earlier. I'm not implying you're scum buddies. Mafia would be giving up half of their team to lynch me, I don't believe that's true at all. I think it's likely you both aren't mafia.

I think it's fairly likely you are masons, and it baffles me you wouldn't claim at the beginning of a day if this is true. Why did IcyTea self-vote when you could confirm each other at the start of today? I'm not super familiar with mason play, but I believe that's the right play, or at least hold off on claiming today if you want to be sneaky.

Yeah, nah, you've totally glossed over our central points again.
It literally does not matter what alignment the ICT+4maskwolf show is. They claimed at a point where ICT was unequivocally in no danger. 4maskwolf is and has been under a fair amount of unresolved heat. This is no reason to claim to protect IcyTea31. Yet that is what you say they are doing, in a line you're now asking us to accept as an you accepting their claim (which to be true, would have to imply that this is what you really thought).

I mean, that's something you'd have to ask them, wouldn't you?

Hey ToonyMan, how many players does your scumteam have?
Nirur

Dolores, Tea, and NJW: You seem to think Toony is scum, and a more compelling lynch than Tric, a very likely third party. Your reasonings feel like weak standard D1 guess lynches.
What success % odds do you give that Toony is scum, and why is lynching him at those odds our best D1 play?

I don't think that Tric is a third party.
I find my case on ToonyMan very compelling.
It was 80-90% at the time I made the case. ToonyMan claiming that he has unclaimed mechanical reasons for knowing heydude6's alignment that he's waiting till end-of-day when we have no cases and just default-lynch tric to share in theory uproots scumslip itself, but ToonyMan continues to persist in quote manipulation and has willingly plunged the town into the wagon on him by holding onto this information; I'll go hard on the 90% now.
Do you have a scum you're 90% confident is scum? Alternatively, can you actually articulate your problems with the cases made?

I get that I should be convincing you to vote with me, but I also think that ToonyMan

[dolores]

EBWOP/I forgot to add:
I want to make it perfectly clear that I am defending a neutral read on TricMagic. I do believe he is playing to his town meta, but I am not trying to convince you of that, and don't consider it unthinkable (just unlikely) that he is scum.
However, I do not think any of the claims that he is a third party that have been made to date hold any weight at all.

[FallacyofUrist]

I don't think that Tric is a third party.

Wait, really? Tric has all but claimed that alignment himself and has displayed no inclination towards finding scum, preferring to lynch the people he thinks has his hats.

I'd love to see your reasoning about this.

I get that I should be convincing you to vote with me, but I also think that ToonyMan

I also think you forgot to finish this sentence.

[Toaster]

Fallacy:

You're still doing it.  Are you getting anything out of it?  At this point you should be able to provide examples.

I'm pretty sure I already answered this question.

Damned if I see an answer anywhere.


Nirur:

Oh.  Well, I did respond to that post here.  Did you want more?   Like I said, I'm looking at people besides you.  I like to ask lots of questions, and I'm doing that to a broad spectrum of people.  I no longer find you the scummiest, for example; like I said, Tric's anti-town mindset got my vote onto him.  I certainly wouldn't cry if you were lynched, but I have a better choice.

How do you feel about Tric's roleclaim?

It sounds like a believable narrative to me, and I'm starting to have doubts.

Speaking of, I'm not sure I ever (directly) answered this.  I would have thought my vote on him (which came before this post) would have made it fairly clear, but I guess not.  I believe that he is the source of hats, and that he wants hats.  I don't find his alignment claim believable.

Your uncertainty in this case makes me inclined to assume that the voting shenanigans are localized on you.

Not to my knowledge.
At the time, I thought Tric lynchable enough to draw a big bandwagon. I don't consider it likely that someone can force a hammer at 7 votes, but felt it worth casting a spiritual instead of mechanical vote to further minimize an unexpectedly early end to D1.

If you're happy with a Tric lynch, why not be okay with a surprise hammer?  Someone pulling said surprise hammer will be very informative, both in that it exists and seeing motivations behind it.

[dolores]

Wait, really? Tric has all but claimed that alignment himself and has displayed no inclination towards finding scum, preferring to lynch the people he thinks has his hats.

I don't think that's inconsistent with his town meta.
Specifically, I think that that Tric says he believes that the people impeding from getting his hats are scum for denying town access to his (seemingly pretty mediocre, really, compared to the cost of a mislynch) abilities is entirely in line with what I would believe he would do and (unfortunately) don't think it's as uncommon a stance as you're implying.

I also think you forgot to finish this sentence.

I think you're right.

Spoiler: Nirur (click to show/hide)

Dolores, Tea, and NJW: You seem to think Toony is scum, and a more compelling lynch than Tric, a very likely third party. Your reasonings feel like weak standard D1 guess lynches.
What success % odds do you give that Toony is scum, and why is lynching him at those odds our best D1 play?

I don't think that Tric is a third party.
I find my case on ToonyMan very compelling.
It was 80-90% at the time I made the case. ToonyMan claiming that he has unclaimed mechanical reasons for knowing heydude6's alignment that he's waiting till end-of-day when we have no cases and just default-lynch tric to share in theory uproots scumslip itself, but ToonyMan continues to persist in quote manipulation and has willingly plunged the town into the wagon on him by holding onto this information; I'll go hard on the 90% now.
Do you have a scum you're 90% confident is scum? Alternatively, can you actually articulate your problems with the cases made?

I get that I should be convincing you to vote with me, but I also think that ToonyMan has been continuing to act scummy in similar but increasingly obvious ways, and in lieu of an alternative actual case on an actual scum can't see how even a cursory glance of his quote manipulation isn't more compellingly scummy than anything that's been elaborated on in thread (inactivity notwithstanding).
Tric can't be trusted to vote with the town, regardless of his alignment, that's true. However, there's no reason to believe that killing him will kill scum. I think that doing our best to kill scum, and so moving forward with a weaker scumteam and reaching the town wincon sooner is going to shake out better than trying to solve the game by controlling for every player that won't vote/cooperate with the town.

[FallacyofUrist]

Damned if I see an answer anywhere.

I quoted the post in which I answered. But if you mean to say that's not good enough for you...

I will benefit from it more greatly at a later time. At the moment it's given me a talking point, though it's mostly been eclipsed by shenaniganery like the contract stuff and the mason claim.

Wait, really? Tric has all but claimed that alignment himself and has displayed no inclination towards finding scum, preferring to lynch the people he thinks has his hats.

[1] I don't think that's inconsistent with his town meta.
Specifically, I think that that Tric says he believes that the people impeding from getting his hats are scum for denying town access to his (seemingly pretty mediocre, really, compared to the cost of a mislynch) abilities is entirely in line with what I would believe he would do and (unfortunately) don't think it's as uncommon a stance as you're implying.

I also think you forgot to finish this sentence.

[2] I think you're right.

[1] That's... yeah, that's unfortunately possible. However, there's also the fact that he's refused to simply state that he's a member of the town. From what I know of Tric, if he were town, he'd at least state that he's a townie in relation to his statements of 'usefulness'?

[2] Are you going to finish it? And if not, why?

[FallacyofUrist]

EBWOP: disregard [2], I didn't notice you finishing it in the spoiler tag.