Confirmed 3rd party:
TricMagic Acting crazy:
FallacyofUrist - I am leaning "stupid town" on FoU at this point. I have a really hard time believing that they would be able to tolerate such a wild opener as scum. I also feel that a scum player would know who they wanted to target in order to boost themselves; they wouldn't need to screw around to find out.
Luckyowl - a noob. I'll say probably town but only because I am pretty sure they're not a third party and I was able to find four people who are more conventionally scummy.
IcyTea31 - I really don't like their playstyle, at least in this particular game. I don't have any ability to read their alignment because they've been focused exclusively on drawing attention to themselves without drawing much by way of conclusions. I also felt that there was a lot of "you are scummy because you are attacking Me, a Townie," which is incredibly lazy at best. My gut doesn't think they're scum, but goodness gracious do they piss me off. I'm going to be looking for more active and outward-facing activity going into D2.
heydude6 - The whole fake-claiming saga was pretty silly, but again, I think a scumteam would have at least let them know that "post your role PM in the main thread" would not be something Web gave them as part of a contract. They seem to be making a good faith effort.
Probable town:
NJW2000 - I agree in general with what Dolores has said.
Toaster - This is a soft read at best but he has been calling people in and encouraging people not to tunnel on 3rd parties. I think that this is town Toaster, although I've always had more trouble reading them.
Jim Groovester -
This post sounds like town Jim to me. Specifically mentioning muddying the waters and wearing out the town in a day which has definitely been very high on BS -- yeah, believable.
notquitethere - another soft read. NQT is usually more engaged but it's definitely true that their style gets rolling as the game goes on. I still remember his BM where things built up into a steamroller at the end. I'm not going to be able to get anything clearer on this dude until D2.
Probably scum:
4maskwolf - lurking with an RVS vote when the game has moved on long ago. I actually think I've played with this player before and although they're usually somewhat disengaged, it's not
this disengaged. This read is softer than the other ones on the list.
Leafsnail - meta-wise, this is definitely not Town Leafsnail.
Nirur Torir - Nirur Torir has actually played a number of games. With me. I think I actually trained them in a BM at one point. Anyhow: this is a gut read, but I think they're scum.
ToonyMan - I don't for a second believe that town!Toony would throw out a quick comment on Leafsnail's meta and then not follow up on it, especially given his other activity in the game (i.e. he's not tunneling anyone right now, he hasn't been working to cut through the noise). I think that was about distancing.
Probably town by process of elimination:
juicebox - Just kinda here. I'm not too concerned with their behavior at the moment.
dolores - I really hated the early-game grandstanding and declarations of intended selfishness. I think they are doing a good job of finding leads and following up on them right now.
I'm town, BTW 9_9
Given the above -- why I'm still voting TricMagic -- I think it's the point of the day when we need to focus and get shit done. I don't think we should leave TricMagic alive. My gut reads feel pretty solid to me on the probable scumteam, but for the most part this is based on meta on a D1 including Christmas, a day of traditionally low activity.
(Also: honestly, I don't have the energy to start tunneling down people's throats right now. Pushing against the B12 tendency to lynch noobs on policy D1 took a lot of effort.)
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Eh, do these not count? I will admit that having other players have hats makes Tricmagic a pseduo-executioner, but all it means is that you have to take his reads with a grain of salt. It's not the most disruptive thing in the world, is it?
Ninja'd by FoU, but still: The problem is that 3rd-parties can usually wheel and deal with the mafia to win together. It's less about "disruptive" and more about "we need to be mindful that their vote won't be on our side when we get to MYLO or LYLO." Also: 3rd-parties are solo actors who usually have a strong incentive to lie but don't have a scumteam that they're trying not to fuck over. It's hard to find them (in my opinion) because you can't chain-lynch them, and you generally can't trust their role-claims to be honest.
I'm somewhat more sympathetic to Tric because of self-revealing 3rd party status early. However, I still don't buy the whole "lynch ICT because I want their hat" thing. I know I've said that over and over again, but "this ability that they might have but I'm not actually sure could be misused by scum" does not seem like a good reason to vote someone off the island.