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Author Topic: BYOR 15: Game Over - Mafia Win (Kinda?)  (Read 113733 times)

Vector

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - The Badge Seller
« Reply #255 on: December 25, 2020, 09:45:42 pm »

Just a quick question -- how many is it to hammer? 9?

I'm feeling more and more comfortable with the three that I named. None have mounted a credible defense.
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heydude6

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #256 on: December 25, 2020, 09:48:19 pm »

heydude6: any particular reason you chose to ask a game-unrelated meta question to a bunch of people, mostly inactives, rather than follow up some strand of analysis that already existed in the thread which the games you linked clearly indicated you are able to do?

Because there's more than one way to contribute to the game as town? Calling my meta-stuff game unrelated is a little unfair considering the fact that in my post I pointed out that scum have more power to create a narrative than usual. It was something I believe needed to be said because in the past when I played Secret Hitler, many of fellow players ignored this fact and as a result often lost. It doesn't matter if a few townies know truth if the rest of the town joins a bandwagon the scum started because it superficially looks more convincing, so I tried to inoculate against that.



At the time when I posted, I only saw 2 threads of questioning that were going anywhere: The case against Fallacy of Urist and the case against Iceytea.

That's a tiny amount of players to be worthy of analysis. Considering the fact that you admit to reading my previous games, you should know that in my first game I tunneled a fellow townie so hard that I got myself lynched. I didn't focus on finding other possible scum, and because the guy was innocent, the effort I did spend was a waste. My contribution to that game was overall anti-town.

This time, I thought it would be better if I could use my first post to put more players in the spotlight. As a matter of fact, that's what you believe I should be trying to do considering the way you criticized fallacy.
Spoiler: The Quote (click to show/hide)

The purpose of Day 1 in my opinion is not to lynch scum (since you're more likely than not going to lynch town anyway), but to get people talking and voting so you can use these actions and sayings as evidence for claims in future days. Excessively focusing on one person is antithetical to that goal for two reasons. One, that soup can only handle so many cooks, so other players won't feel the need to say much since once all that needs to be said has been. And two, you rob people of the ability to make a choice with their vote, since there's only one suspect. They can of course not vote, but the more real options you give a player, the more insight you receive from what they finally do choose. Consider this paragraph my own way of criticizing Fallacy.

So of course I'm going to try to branch out and get more players talking. I mainly chose these players based off of how inexperienced they were (they were the main people who I wanted to receive my meta-stuff message), plus Fallacy cause I do still want to grill him a little. Their inactivity was merely a coincidence, but it would have been nice to break them out of that. My question is simple enough that them not responding has room to be interpreted as deliberate lurking.

Regardless of how that goes, my efforts have already bore fruit:

In a game of mafia where the town is doing badly, who is more likely to know what's going on and lead the town to victory:

The group of 4 people?

or

The group of 2 people?

Spoiler: Additionally (click to show/hide)

I don't know wtf you're asking about. If you want me to answer something can you not ask me in riddles?

Compare his answer to yours. Both of you rejected my question, but Jim just brushes it aside while you at least say something constructive in your response. I find it uncharacteristically flippant. It may not seem like much yet, but we may see it in a different light later on in the game.



Jim Groovestor. You may have had a point if you were the only person to respond to this question, but 4maskwolf and Iceytea were both able understand the question and give good answers. Am I really supposed to believe a veteran who's been around since the first beginner game isn't capable of understanding a question other veterans can understand?
Spoiler: Their responses (click to show/hide)


How important do you consider townhunting in comparison to scumhunting?

Iceytea. I'll be frank, I've never heard of the term, but the meaning seems obvious. I always just believed that finding town was a part of the scumhunting process. If you pressure someone to talk and they say townie things rather than scummy ones, then you'll have a better idea of who town is. It doesn't guarantee they're town, but saying scummy things doesn't guarantee they're scum either.



heydude6 do you play well under pressure?

notquitethere. I usually do something stupid when I get enough. Thankfully, real pressure only tends to develop when people act in a way that attracts it. I like to think that I've been a good townie so far.



If there was a mislynch that you voted with D1, how would you reevaluate your picks D2?

Toaster. Forgot this part when I wrote my first post. I'll answer this now. The mislynch is probably the most informative part of day 1. That's the time when you reflect on the reasons everyone made their choices and double-check to see if they made sense. As part of common sense, townies shouldn't join a bandwagon unless they fully understand and agree with the reasoning for the lynch. If a someone hops on the wagon without properly justifying themselves, then that makes them sus. You also have to be wary of the most passionate pushers of the vote. If the underlying reasoning ends up looking weak in hindsight, then they might just been pushing an agenda, and only non-towns should have an agenda.

It's also a good time to look at the other suspects and try to understand why they didn't get the vote instead. Who were their defenders? Were their arguments any good? Did they try to deflect away criticism by attacking the stronger candidate instead of addressing their own flaws?

Of course scum is all aware of this. You should expect some deliberate attempts by them to play with those expectations, but you need to know rules so you can spot when people are trying to break them.



Jim again!

I really don't have the patience for 120 hours of this.

Guys, please, help me hammer IcyTea31.
How about 600hrs?
Let's say that ICT actually was scummy at all. You really going to push for a hammer (on this theoretical probable scum) when one player hasn't posted at all, one basically hasn't posted and we need their replacement to finish arriving, and several others haven't had the time to get out of christmas and achieve a more significant engagement with the game?

Due to Christmas shenanigans I've been writing this post for a while, and now I see you post this. Are you trying to pass yourself off as a jester? Because I doubt you would be unaware of how anti-town that course of action would be.

Let's say that ICT actually was scummy at all. You really going to push for a hammer (on this theoretical probable scum) when one player hasn't posted at all, one basically hasn't posted and we need their replacement to finish arriving, and several others haven't had the time to get out of christmas and achieve a more significant engagement with the game?

Yes. I'm finding this Day 1 exhausting already and the sooner it ends the better.

And you double down. Do you really see no value in day 1?



Back to Toaster. I don't see how being part of the mislynch will affect who I will suspect in day 2. It will have consequences for how people will perceive me, but I hope I have the skills to spot the scum regardless of whether I got involved or not.

Do you know something we don't?

I hope you realize how that can be seen as rolefishing.



IcyTea, IcyTea, IcyTea. Why did you reveal your nefarious plot now? Luckyowl hasn't even posted yet. Why should town listen to anything an unjustified self-voter has to say?
Because not listening to people is how one loses this game as town, and I have knowledge town doesn't have. It seems to me that the only reason you'd have no reason to listen to me is if I don't have knowledge that you don't as well.
I also don't think you're on the scumteam, because claiming a non-town alignment with this little pressure on you isn't generally to scum's advantage (this is where things start getting WIFOMy). Thanks for the clarification regarding that, by the way (in teal).
That teal part should be read as "I have knowledge town!Toony doesn't have". The piece of knowledge in question is "IcyTea31 is town" which only I and scum know for sure right now.

Iceytea again. That's frankly quite a clumsy backpedal. It does make sense within the context of your first post, enough for me to believe it was what you intended all along. But you risked a lot unnecessarily just so you could throw shade at Toonyman. Deserved shade in my opinion, but I believe there was a way of sending that message without undermining the town's trust in you.

Not your best gambit in my opinion, but I understand it.

We should have some pretty good reads by the time this day 1 ends, I think.
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Luckyowl

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - The Badge Seller
« Reply #257 on: December 25, 2020, 09:54:21 pm »

With that out of the way.Because IcyTea31 opened with that really cool overly confidence self-voting.  I'm going to say IcyTea31 is townie and is the only I trust so far.
You think self-voting is townish for being cool and overconfident? And just that, nothing else I or anyone else has posted?

The thing is. With everyone elses posts and including yours. Is that they don't really mean anything to me. I respect action more than words. That's sort of the player I am. Always winging it and always playing risky. So I'm putting all my chips on you IcyTea31. Even if it might lead me to my blunder.

ToonyMan:  well, there isn't enough information to say who is scum since the game just started. But if you were to say who do think is likely to be scum I say anyone who decided to open up with a wall text.
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Vector

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - The Badge Seller
« Reply #258 on: December 25, 2020, 09:55:49 pm »

Don't make my game a chore to play. I don't have any interest in unraveling shitty mind games.
What kind of a game would you be interested in? Want me to scream all-caps obscenities at you in the name of "pressure"?

I'm finding this Day 1 exhausting already and the sooner it ends the better.
Are you really willing to hand the initiative to scum simply because it's "exhausting" for town to win?

Ok, first part: false dichotomy. Second part, also a false dichotomy.


Quote
You are so off base that I'm growing more convinced you're scum or some other anti-town doing some idiotic gambit.
What's on-base? Would you rather have had me ask you what colour your sneakers are and use that as grounds for a groundless bandwagon?

It's really hard for me at this point to understand why you're repeatedly doubling down on this when we left RVS long ago. The second part of your statement is again a false dichotomy.


Quote
If you are town you need to not be a dillweed and get lynched since that's counterproductive, and a lot of that is on you to do and not on other people to successfully sniff out.
Me getting lynched is your words, not mine. Townhunting is in fact other people's job just as it's mine. Keeping myself from looking scummy, however, is not my job; that's scum's job, since they're the ones who aren't protected by the fact of being town.

It is in fact partially your job to keep from being lynched, if you are town. If you are town, you don't want to be mislynched, as that is bad for town.


Quote
Unless you have a very convincing reason for why you, as town, would vote yourself and draw large amounts of attention to yourself over it (which I have yet to see you produce), then I am perfectly content leaving my vote where it is.
Did you read my conversation with Toony? I spelled it out in pretty clear terms. Hell, you even quoted that part in your post. Having attention on me is a good thing, as it lets me see who's scrutinizing my alignment and who's trying to find an excuse to lynch me. Are you projecting a fear of attention, of having your alignment scrutinized?

I agree to a limited extent with your statement in teal, but I feel that, if you are town, at this point you are hopelessly muddling the waters. Having attention on scum in the process of lynching them is, well, the goal here.


I suppose I should follow up on this with a question. IcyTea, I am going to entertain, for a moment, that you are indeed just doing a form of RVS that I'm not accustomed to. Would you mind summarizing your reads? If you are sticking with your gambit, I have to assume that you are finding it productive.
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heydude6

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - The Badge Seller
« Reply #259 on: December 25, 2020, 10:00:13 pm »

Just a quick question -- how many is it to hammer? 9?

I'm feeling more and more comfortable with the three that I named. None have mounted a credible defense.

Could you name the three? Looking through the post history I see Iceytea and Fallacy of Urist, but I don't know who the third is.

Hammers are definitely something to be wary of though. Day 1 is about information gathering so even if we manage to lynch scum, we won't be making the most of it if we lynch early.



*Read his previous post*

I disagree with everything you said:
  • In a game like mafia, words are actions.
  • Mafia is too logical for something as emotional as a gambling metaphor.
  • Walls of text are annoying, but they put you in the spotlight, which is not something scum like to do. In the games I played in, the scum meta often involved keeping their presence minimal and letting the town tear itself apart, though the veterans here might not play that way.

I let this pass cause you're a newbie.
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Toaster

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #260 on: December 25, 2020, 10:01:04 pm »

IcyTea:
Seeking attention much?
Yes. Is there a problem?

Kind of, yeah.  Not in a "I have follow up questions" sense, but "I don't like it and will keep an eye on you."

However...

IcyTea, IcyTea, IcyTea. Why did you reveal your nefarious plot now? Luckyowl hasn't even posted yet. Why should town listen to anything an unjustified self-voter has to say?
Because not listening to people is how one loses this game as town, and I have knowledge town doesn't have. It seems to me that the only reason you'd have no reason to listen to me is if I don't have knowledge that you don't as well.

Hey, you know who has information town doesn't have?

Scum.

IcyTea31.

That teal part should be read as "I have knowledge town!Toony doesn't have". The piece of knowledge in question is "IcyTea31 is town" which only I and scum know for sure right now.

Oh, yeah, sure, go back on that.  Bit late, there.

Keeping myself from looking scummy, however, is not my job; that's scum's job, since they're the ones who aren't protected by the fact of being town.

Bullshit.  Making yourself look like scum is a great way to lead to a lynch; I'd say mislynch but I really doubt it'd be a miss at this point.  And "protected by the fact of being town" makes no sense.


TricMagic:  So you're voting Dolores; who else do you suspect?



LuckyOwl:

LuckyOwl:  Did you kill and eat IronyOwl?  I keep getting confused.

If you killed and ate a player N1 and could blindly swap into their alignment, would you?

RVS is plenty over but I still want an answer.  Plus, you say...

I feel like some of these text gives scummy vibe.

...but all you give is a single townread.  That's not really useful in this situation.  What else can you tell us?



Dolores:
Toaster
Speaking of philosophy, do you support policy lynches on lurkers?  What about policy lynches in general?
I really want to. No.
I've lost a lot of games to lynching lurkers and scum just coasting over the inactive town to victory, and it's a hard hole to get out of because you want to just throw your hands up and say 'well what can I do' but it's a verifiable miracle to get a 15 player game without at least one Caz who joins a game just to join a game and never had any intention of playing mafia earnestly, so it's not an attitude that's going to reflect well on my winrate.
I've never heard of a good policy besides lynch all lurkers, but that's barely even a policy, it's just prioritizing egregious and excessive anti-town actions as more lynchable than nebulously scummy ones. All of the other prescriptions to play (regarding lying, claims, etc.) are not only bad for your play and force you to play counter to your interests if followed, but are also just fundamentally wrong and defended only (in my experience) by people who are trash at mafia.

I get what you're saying, but if one person of sixteen is quiet D1, what are we really gaining from lynching said player?  There's more than enough activity now to get some actual meat on other people.

At what point does lurking become "egregious?"  Do you distinguish between passive and active lurking?


Heydude:
Do you know something we don't?

I hope you realize how that can be seen as rolefishing.

It could be, sure.  However, look at my reasoning for voting IcyTea above, and you'll see what I mean.

Since the initiative of the question is lost, I'm going to go direct.  Are you town, Icytea?
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Toaster

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - The Badge Seller
« Reply #261 on: December 25, 2020, 10:06:30 pm »

Jim:  Why is Day 1 so exhausting to you if all you've done is push for a lynch on IcyTea for self-voting?
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Vector

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #262 on: December 25, 2020, 10:06:47 pm »

@heydude:

The third I identified is dolores.

I'm asking how many it is to hammer because I want to be aware well ahead of time if we're close to hammering someone. Don't worry. I'm very well aware of what D1 is for.
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webadict

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #263 on: December 25, 2020, 10:10:45 pm »

I'm asking how many it is to hammer because I want to be aware well ahead of time if we're close to hammering someone. Don't worry. I'm very well aware of what D1 is for.
Hammer is majority, so in this case, it's 9.
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heydude6

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - The Badge Seller
« Reply #264 on: December 25, 2020, 10:17:18 pm »

Can we have a vote count?



In other words, someone just maliciously targeted me with a day action. It was at 10:02:06 pm, which is 1 minute and 2 seconds after Toaster's post. I think I must have been doing too good of job as town then.

Who do you think is the most likely suspect?
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heydude6

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - The Badge Seller
« Reply #265 on: December 25, 2020, 10:18:28 pm »

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dolores

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - The Badge Seller
« Reply #266 on: December 25, 2020, 10:19:38 pm »

Which is it? You're voting FoU but don't think they're scum?
Both. Yes.
I don't think that FoU isn't scum, but I also doubt that his commitment to not contributing anything to the game is the scummiest thing we'll see all day unless it becomes super obvious and undeniable.
The fact that I'm not asking anyone else to vote FoU should make it clear to you that I don't especially think that he's scum. Be assured, if I think I've found scum I'll give you a call.
Vector
I'm feeling more and more comfortable with the three that I named. None have mounted a credible defense.
Credible defense to what, the accusation that I want to be lynched? It's not like I'm going to eat a town vig bullet over it.
ICT isn't getting lynched this phase and I don't think FoU knows how to mount a credible defense.  If you're spitballing that town should do something in the night about dolores|FoU|ICT I think that: you can't|I'd like that (killing him without wasting a lynch)|that's a goon bag of wine I'll let you get into yourself.
Or did you mean to walk back what you said before and are now claiming that we're scummy?
It's really hard for me at this point to understand why you're repeatedly doubling down on this when we left RVS long ago.
We didn't though. For the most part we're past RVS, but there are also players with no content. If Caz/Nirur votes, it won't be random, but if you were to vote for Caz/Nirur it would be random since we really don't have any information about their alignment. Now, you can make comparisons about their likelihood of being scum to other players, but the essential point is that the opportunity to bait a scummy debut post/first case out of someone definitely still exists in this game because many or even most players haven't really committed to a traditional (post-RVS) case at this point.
It is in fact partially your job to keep from being lynched, if you are town. If you are town, you don't want to be mislynched, as that is bad for town.
Is ICT going to get lynched? If you think they want to be lynched, are you more or less likely to want them lynched?
Toaster
I get what you're saying, but if one person of sixteen is quiet D1, what are we really gaining from lynching said player?  There's more than enough activity now to get some actual meat on other people.

At what point does lurking become "egregious?"  Do you distinguish between passive and active lurking?
If one person of sixteen is quiet D1, lynching them solves the game, since you can just hunt for scum after that and you'll never have a lynch miss ever again.
Well, that's true of a game of arbitrarily high levels of play and activity, because as the amount of content increases the scum will be increasingly clearly revealed and town increasingly cleared by the law of large numbers as the number and severity of slips balances out towards the average for each player as being the expected level for them as their alignment.
Lurking becomes egregious when it detracts from attempts to lynch a player for something besides lurking. So right away, really, but there's degrees to which that's true in games. In the context of 'Lynch all Lurkers', lurking is egregious when someone says that a player should be lynched because they're a lurker.
Not really. I'd call something 'lurking scum' versus 'completely inactive', but that's more just to say that a player who barely posts does post scumslips versus a player who barely posts and doesn't. Realistically, whatever indicates an explicit desire to not engage with the daygame is scummy, and inactivity which doesn't indicate this feeling is neutral.

I'll get to heydude in a separate post.
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IcyTea31

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #267 on: December 25, 2020, 10:22:22 pm »

Just a quick question -- how many is it to hammer? 9?

I'm feeling more and more comfortable with the three that I named. None have mounted a credible defense.
Lynching those whom to you seem like they want to be lynched is pretty brave.

false dichotomy
Ever heard the adage, "if you want answers, give the wrong one"? None of those questions were for you, by the by.

Quote
It's really hard for me at this point to understand why you're repeatedly doubling down on this when we left RVS long ago.
Because Jim has a problem with how I opened my game, I gave an example of another way I could have done that. A particularly weak way, yes, but I'm interested in hearing what Jim considers a strong one.

Quote
I agree to a limited extent with your statement in teal, but I feel that, if you are town, at this point you are hopelessly muddling the waters. Having attention on scum in the process of lynching them is, well, the goal here.
Are we in the process of lynching someone yet?

Quote
Would you mind summarizing your reads? If you are sticking with your gambit, I have to assume that you are finding it productive.
Sure. I was going to do that anyway tomorrow, so gimme a moment to collate my notes.



you risked a lot unnecessarily -- there was a way of sending that message without undermining the town's trust in you.
Towncred is currency. Finding town and scum is more important than hoarding trust.



The thing is. With everyone elses posts and including yours. Is that they don't really mean anything to me. I respect action more than words. That's sort of the player I am. Always winging it and always playing risky. So I'm putting all my chips on you IcyTea31. Even if it might lead me to my blunder. '
Okay what the fuck is this. If you're going to put respect in actions, at least put it in the meaningful ones.



And "protected by the fact of being town" makes no sense.
Only if you don't care about whether I factually am town or not. Which a town player should.

Quote
Since the initiative of the question is lost, I'm going to go direct.  Are you town, Icytea?
Yes. Anything else?
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Toaster

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - The Badge Seller
« Reply #268 on: December 25, 2020, 10:27:26 pm »

Heydude:  Considering you can only get PMed when Web is around to process the action, that level of metagaming is not likely to yield useful intel.


Dolores:  You definition of who needs to be lynched for lurking comes off as arbitrary.


IcyTea:
And "protected by the fact of being town" makes no sense.
Only if you don't care about whether I factually am town or not. Which a town player should.

I'm going to need you to explain that statement to me then, because I still don't understand what you're getting at here.


Quote
Quote
Since the initiative of the question is lost, I'm going to go direct.  Are you town, Icytea?
Yes. Anything else?

I mean, other than me not moving my vote on you and your lack of response to it or my reasoning behind it, no.
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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - The Badge Seller
« Reply #269 on: December 25, 2020, 10:30:23 pm »



*Read his previous post*

I disagree with everything you said:
  • In a game like mafia, words are actions.
  • Mafia is too logical for something as emotional as a gambling metaphor.
  • Walls of text are annoying, but they put you in the spotlight, which is not something scum like to do. In the games I played in, the scum meta often involved keeping their presence minimal and letting the town tear itself apart, though the veterans here might not play that way.

I let this pass cause you're a newbie.

I would've agree with the whole mafia is a logical game and all if this was a normal mafia game with no shenanigans involve. But this isn't that type of game and when you think about it Mafia is all emotional than logical. We're always gambling our moves. Like, who should I trust? Who should I protect? Who should I kill? What we do has reward and consequences. Like what I'm doing right now is risky. I won't be doing any townread as it doesn't mean anything to me. Will it make me look scum? Yeah, but if you think I'm scum then you're emotionally thinking rather than logically. Hence unravelling the facade that Mafia is all my rational thinking.

As I said I'm going to put all my trust on IcyTea31. As it's the most townie thing to do. Trust is important to me.
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