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Author Topic: BYOR 15: Game Over - Mafia Win (Kinda?)  (Read 111183 times)

NJW2000

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1680 on: January 10, 2021, 02:41:23 pm »

Another option is to make everyone vote Leafsnail... some chance scum dies. (Or at least the players collectively considered most dubious. Hard to say who gets to have an input into that discussion, except for obviously Tric and obviously not Leafsnail.) It's a 50% chance of killing town, and a 33% chance of killing mafia, if everyone votes Leafsnail and Leafsnail is scum. Not terrible odds, but not great.
We can't get a number of votes over the hammer, so only four players (three if Tric double-votes) can be voting him at day end. And what if someone simply refuses to vote for him? Do we assume they're scum, or what if they're town not wanting to get shot?
Yeah, makes sense. Still worrying. I really hope this doesn't come down to the minute before the lynch.
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One wheel short of a wagon

TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1681 on: January 10, 2021, 02:45:56 pm »

Just vote to shorten?
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Nirur Torir

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1682 on: January 10, 2021, 03:15:15 pm »

Shorten.

We're not getting anything else done today after that. This is only the third vote, so Heydude still has time for his post, which hopefully won't be full of wine.
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heydude6

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1683 on: January 10, 2021, 03:27:11 pm »

I guess I kept everyone waiting long enough. Let's get started then.

The simple argument for Trick and I being town

As you guys just saw today, my role has a lot of power. If I was scum, then my team would have already won. I would have given Excalibur to a scum buddy and they would have finished off Luckyowl and won us the game.

The above statement isn't a wall-of-text argument, so if you want to dispute it, please do it properly instead of dismissing it with a stock phrase.

Appendix

Day 3 is not the only reason evidence for my Towniness. Since day 1, I've had people who would eventually flip as town, look at my content and conclude that I gave off strong town tells. Suspicions only really started to mount against me when I hammered Toaster (a genuine mistake that was first Vector's idea, another townie), and they intensified when people thought I was lying about using a fast hatter badge (I blame Web for that one).

Killing Vector was also a genuine mistake that I made in a hasty panic that I deeply regret, but I would also like to note how aggressively so many people dog-piled me. More importantly though, I had no one take my side except Trick at the very end when he finally revealed Excalibur. He sure had me fooled at the beginning.

Now the reason why this is important goes back to the first statement I made at the beginning of this game.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

If it's not clear already, the answer for our game is the group of 2 people, and it usually is the group of 2 people. A game where the town does badly is a game that leaves several mafia members alive who know what's going on while the town runs around like headless chickens.

When the town is like this, they're easier to manipulate and any attempts to organize into a more town-centric agenda need to be disrupted by the scum.

You might see them push questionable lynches, they may brush aside a good argument against a fellow scum buddy. They make isolated town members question each other's ideas, leaving only the scum's narrative as the one anyone can agree on.

There were no attempts to disrupt the "town-centric" narrative against me, and my arguments against Leafsnail were ridiculed, but not refuted.

Trickmagic
and I were the group of 2, and FallacyofUrist, Leafsnail, Nirur Torir, and a bit of NJW2000 were the group of 4. I am confident that 3 out of 4 members are scum, and if you are the town in this group, then you shouldn't trust anything the others have to say.

As for what I have to say about Trickmagic, besides the fact that he didn't end the game when he had the power to, there is still the argument I made in my mega-post. If you want to claim he's scum, please look at the points I made in that.



So now I want to share my opinion on every player again.

TrickMagic and Heydude6: Besides the fact that I know I'm town, I also already made the arguments for why you should see us as town as well. I won't repeat them

Nirur Torir: The person I want to lynch tomorrow. Has been seen as scummy since day 2 (read the section on him in my mega-post) and has done little to redeem himself. Was mostly fine in day 3, though like I said last time, it could have just been his team mates telling him to lay low. There was one post I found suspicious.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

There's more of that sole night-killer nonsense, which I always will see as ridiculous and they also called Tric Scum. Ultimately, it's not much for day 3

The real bad stuff happens during this day though.

I make my big defense post which also comes with a case against Leafsnail. And all Nirur Torir does is quote an excerpt from it and say it's nothing, but WIFOM
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

But that isn't true. It's an actual case against Leafsnail that he chooses to ignore, and what do you know? Leafsnail pulls out a holdout pistol once the main argument for lynching me collapses and the Town starts to turn against him. How can you not see this as an attempt by !ScumNirur Torir to defend his buddy?

In my response to him, I call this out and then point out how the argument about me faking Excalibur is it's own WIFOM, which is another way of stating the first paragraph of my big defense.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

And rather than acknowledge that the main argument against me is shit, or give reasons for why it isn't shit, he just says that he's applying pressure.
The argument that I’m faking Excalibur is a WIFOM, yet you eagerly believe it, while dismissing my own points as WIFOM.
If I eagerly believed it I'd be voting you, instead of just applying pressure.

We're in a LYLO situation where quickhammers are possible. Am I seriously supposed to believe you'd place a second vote on me without waiting for a town consensus? Even scum would try to pretend to be town in this situation. I think you would know that.

As for your pressure, it looks quite similar to dogpiling to me. Even a scum who is trying to push a lynch on a towney can be said to apply pressure to them. I see this response as nothing more than a way to brush aside concerns that the argument you're supporting is flawed.

NJW2000: Since I'm convinced Leafsnail and Nirur are scum, my third scum pick is either you or Fallacy.

As a player, I consider you one of the most sensible people here. You didn't buy into the fake Excalibur nonsense (though you did argue a policy lynch against me, while simultaneously saying I looked town), you didn't buy into the nonsense arguments that were used against me in day 3, you rightfully pointed out how Fallacy has a good chance of being scum in this situation, and you used reason when you accepted my claim that I suffered from a moderator error (and then rightfully pointed out how this doesn't necessarily clear me). You've kept your head level and didn't let yourself be swayed by scum's bad arguments. Though I guess at least one Scum should protect themselves from the fallout of my Town flip.

The biggest reason to find you scummy is your association with Leafsnail. You have frequently advocated against lynching him, usually using the argument that other people are scummier, while additionally citing some of his posts that you believe come across as more town. I looked through those posts, and I find no problem with them, but he was also the person pushing some of the most ridiculous elements of the Day 3 Lynch on me. He was the originator of the sole-nightkiller conspiracy theory for example. You spent your time that day brigading Vector, which I can't fault you for since I was suspicious of them too, but Vector claimed you were intellectually dishonest, which you eventually apologized for and excused as a result of you being tired.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Vector also did some silly things while sleep-deprived so I still don't know what to make of this. Which you mention in one of your first posts this day.

A final thing I noticed is that you and Leafsnail could have worked together to coordinate the watcher claim, by piggy-backing off of the information 4maskwolf has already revealed. These are the kinds of subtle scum plays that scum actually use, rather than the inane shit people accuse me of doing. Still, Fallacy has been digging himself quite a hole today which means you're not my biggest suspect.

Luckyowl: If you can't tell, I'm mostly thinking in terms of scum teams right now which I think has been working out well at this point in the game. I used to see Luckyowl as part of team with Vecotr, but since Vector is town, that train of thought has collapsed. Luckyowl does say some inane shit but when he does so, there usually aren't people backing him up and saying "Yes LuckyOwl! That person is scum! Here are my arguments against them as well" like I have seen from certain other people. Plus, he claimed to be a cop who alignment confirmed me at the beginning of the game before I killed anyone, which is not something I expect scum to do. Could still happen, but arguing for that to be the case would be WIFOM. Especially when there are more suspicious candidates around.

Fallacy of Urist: You've done a lot of things to end up on my shitlist. Since this post has taken long enough already, I'll lay it all out later.



Webadict,
buy me an item Magnet badge. I'll vote Leafsnail so scum don't suddenly take control of the lynch.
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Lets use the ancient naval art of training war parrots. No one will realize they have been boarded by space war parrots until it is to late!
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heydude6

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1684 on: January 10, 2021, 03:28:28 pm »

Luckyowl: If you can't tell, I'm mostly thinking in terms of scum teams right now which I think has been working out well at this point in the game. I used to see Luckyowl as part of team with Vecotr, but since Vector is town, that train of thought has collapsed. Luckyowl does say some inane shit but when he does so, there usually aren't people backing him up and saying "Yes LuckyOwl! That person is scum! Here are my arguments against them as well" like I have seen from certain other people. Plus, he claimed to be a cop who alignment confirmed me at the beginning of Day 4 before I killed anyone, which is not something I expect scum to do. Could still happen, but arguing for that to be the case would be WIFOM. Especially when there are more suspicious candidates around.

Quote to edit
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Lets use the ancient naval art of training war parrots. No one will realize they have been boarded by space war parrots until it is to late!
You can fake being able to run on water. You can't fake looking cool when you break your foot on a door and hit your head on the floor.

webadict

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1685 on: January 10, 2021, 04:47:03 pm »

Webadict, buy me an item Magnet badge. I'll vote Leafsnail so scum don't suddenly take control of the lynch.
heydude6 places some pons on the counter and as he's about to ask for one, the Item Magnet Badge is already there.
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Mamobo

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1686 on: January 10, 2021, 04:48:31 pm »

Vote Count
------------------------
FallacyofUrist - 0 -
heydude6 - 1 - Leafsnail*,
Leafsnail - 1 - heydude6*,
Luckyowl - 0 -
Nirur Torir - 0 -
NJW2000 - 1 - Luckyowl*,
TricMagic - 0 -
No Lynch - 0 -

Not Voting - 4 - Nirur Torir, TricMagic*, NJW2000, FallacyofUrist*,

4 to Hammer. Day ends on January 11, 2021 at 19:00 CST (~27 hours remaining).
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webadict

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1687 on: January 10, 2021, 04:49:08 pm »

Ignore Mamobo. I'll do it myself...
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TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1688 on: January 10, 2021, 04:50:41 pm »

Aight, point one. It's four votes to hammer. But...

Point two. If the Day ends without a hammer, the player with the most votes on them is lynched.

So if we can all agree to not vote, and just let Tric vote Leafsnail, then Leafsnail gets lynched and the magnet saves Tric. If you read Jim Groovester's role flip, you can see the exact mechanics of the Hold-Out Blaster - it targets a random player who voted the user. If only Tric votes Leafsnail, then it's guaranteed to hit him, but if more of us vote Leafsnail and/or he's hammered, there's a chance it's not Tric who gets shot. And only Tric has the Item Magnet Badge so far, right?

That how it works?

Leafsnail Leafsnail, Shortening Time. My Hat Trick is unmatched. Webadict, vote list?

Meanwhile, can I please not get roleblocked tonight? Can't protect if I can't act.

Is it broken webadict? Also Heydude, I don't actually trust you that much.
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webadict

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1689 on: January 10, 2021, 04:51:15 pm »

Vote Count
------------------------
FallacyofUrist - 0 -
heydude6 - 0 -
Leafsnail - 3 - heydude6*, TricMagic*, TricMagic*,
Luckyowl - 0 -
Nirur Torir - 0 -
NJW2000 - 1 - Luckyowl*,
TricMagic - 0 -
No Lynch - 0 -

Not Voting - 3 - Nirur Torir, NJW2000, FallacyofUrist*,

4 to Hammer. Day ends on January 11, 2021 at 19:00 CST (~27 hours remaining).


Fallacy, don't post in red if it's not a vote.
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TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1690 on: January 10, 2021, 04:51:39 pm »

Also, if you bought a Fast Hater Badge, where did you get the pons to buy another?

Remove Shorten Vote
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FallacyofUrist

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1691 on: January 10, 2021, 05:02:27 pm »

As you guys just saw today, my role has a lot of power. If I was scum, then my team would have already won. I would have given Excalibur to a scum buddy and they would have finished off Luckyowl and won us the game.
I'll do you the favor of disputing this properly instead of with a stock phrase.

Possibility 1: You and Tric are both town. There's a good deal of evidence to agree that Tric is town - they clearly used the Excaliber, after all. A scum player, as you said, could have just shot LuckyOwl dead. There's not as much evidence to conclude that you are necessarily town, though. Your role seems almost too powerful, if I'm allowed to say that. That much killing power, the ability to share it at will, secondary utility like the track and vote steal, the ability to get new abilities, using multiple guns at the same time, and protection from kills? All of that? A nigh-unstoppable obstacle for the mafia. I'm not sure I buy you being town with a role like that.

Possibility 2: You and Tric are both scum. Yeah no, if this were the case you would have won already.

Possibility 3: You are scum while Tric is town. This is possible, but would require a fair bit of role shenaniganery and a willingness to take gambits from you - suppose you have an auto that says 'your team members cannot use your guns', in which case you could have given it to Tric as a gambit to prove yourself townie - but suppose Tric shot one of your scum buddies. It'd be risky, and kinda silly when you can just wait a day and use the Excaliber later.

So yeah. You being flat scum doesn't make sense, just based on the 'pass-guns-around' thing. But... there's a fourth option.

Possibility 4: You are a Serial Killer while Tric is town. Considering the intense power of your role, the brokenness it would have if you were on a mafia team, especially the lethality of your role, exactly how kill-happy you've been - we can trace you back to the deaths of Juicebox, Vector, and NQT already... yeah, it's nasty. That's not a one-shot kill, that's many kills, all with secondary utility to go with it. You're just too powerful and lethal to be town, and it's impossible for you to be on a team, so you have to be a murderous third party. In this scenario, giving up the Excaliber makes more sense, as it gets Tric to trust you, you can't use it yourself due to being out of actions, and you might think you can convince everyone of your towniness, solidify that by hunting down the scum, and once all the mafia are dead, you'll be in the perfect position to finish the town off. Thing is, if we lynch you, that's 3 town versus 3 scum, and we lose that, so we need to lynch Leafnsnail, get you killed during the night, then finish off the rest of the scum. And that's definitely not easy, heydude.

Also, if you bought a Fast Hater Badge, where did you get the pons to buy another?

Remove Shorten Vote
That at least is an easy answer - remember the first badge was a gift from Dolores.
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heydude6

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1692 on: January 10, 2021, 05:03:27 pm »

Also, if you bought a Fast Hater Badge, where did you get the pons to buy another?

Remove Shorten Vote

Badge Seller: I would like to buy a Fast Hatter Badge and apply it to heydude6
dolores throws money down from the top of the scoreboard and into the Badge Seller's outstretched hands. "Can you put that on heydude6? Thanks." The Badge Seller flicks its wrists and throws the Badge across the room, before it collides into heydude6, sending the poor dude through an unfortunately placed table and splitting it in two.

heydude6 gives a thumbs up from the wreckage.


Are we really doing this?
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Lets use the ancient naval art of training war parrots. No one will realize they have been boarded by space war parrots until it is to late!
You can fake being able to run on water. You can't fake looking cool when you break your foot on a door and hit your head on the floor.

TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1693 on: January 10, 2021, 05:09:40 pm »

Hey it's been a while. I would have expected all the pons to be spent by now.

My point stands I don't trust you with a holdout blaster, since that is randomly targeted. I never am going to use it though. Maybe I can just ask webadict if I can break it.

There wasn't any reason to buy a badge right now when all you needed to do was apply the last shorten vote, and leafsnail would be done. If you have the blaster however, we will run into this exact same problem Day 4 in that we can't lynch you, and no way to grab extra votes or kill you.
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TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 4 - You Definitely Screwed Up
« Reply #1694 on: January 10, 2021, 05:10:36 pm »

Correction, Day 5.
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