Success rate is pretty simple: +10% per skill level, -40% per item tier. Baseline success rate is 90%.
I think.
Tier is where it gets weird, because there's these long elaborate compounded equations that get compared to a table, which means there's wide swathes of improvement or loss that don't hit the next breakpoint and thus don't matter.
Specifically: Randomly get a number between (
{[Luck] + [Crafting Table Feng Shui]} * 10) and (
{[Luck] + [Crafting Table Feng Shui]} * -5), divide by 100, add to 1. I find it easiest to treat these as a "High" and "Low" result and calculate them separately.
Once you've got your random number, it's simply a matter of:
High Result =
[Item Qi] *
(0.5 + {0.05 * [Artifact Crafting Skill]} + [Artifact Crafting Grade Bonus from Manuals]) *
3 *
(1 + {0.1 * ([Luck] + [Crafting Table Feng Shui])})Low Result =
[Item Qi] *
(0.5 + {0.05 * [Artifact Crafting Skill]} + [Artifact Crafting Grade Bonus from Manuals]) *
3 *
(1 + {-0.5 * ([Luck] + [Crafting Table Feng Shui])})Then you compare that to:
ItemQi | TierBonus |
0 | +0 |
1500 | +1 |
15000 | +2 |
40000 | +3 |
90000 | +4 |
1 million | +5 |
2 million | +6 |
3 million | +7 |
4 million | +8 |
So for instance, if we have a pristine crafter with 5 Luck, 10 ranks in Artifact Crafting, working on an Auspicious (ie spirit stone because it's everywhere and we didn't realize it mattered) Crafting Table, we get:
High Result =
[Item Qi] *
1.0 *
3 *
1.8 =
[Item Qi] * 5.4
Low Result =
[Item Qi] *
1.0 *
3 *
0.6 =
[Item Qi] * 1.8
Glancing back up at our table, we realize this isn't going to matter for more than a tier's difference, and even then not all the time; an item with 500 Qi will get +1 a little over half the time; 1000 to 2500 Qi in it is guaranteed to get +1 to its tier no matter how (un)lucky we get here; an item with 8,000 qi will almost always get +2, but barely scrape down to +1 or up to +3 now and then.
Glancing back up at our equations, we're not sure what to do about this. We can accumulate more qi in an item to a point, but with breakpoints like these that's a very meticulous project. Each rank in Artifact Crafting boosts the total number by 5%, which is good but definitely inching forward. We can adjust our table for gambling mode (and hey, gotta farm anguish soul gems somewhere), but that's still only a ~50% boost (in effective qi, not bonus tiers!) for the very best items, and at the cost of a lot more of them falling flat.
Oh and I forgot to mention that base artifact tier is base item tier, because of course I'd go for a page and half of algebra forgetting to specify one of the basics. So if you've got the crafter qi just using fancier items is the other obvious solution here. Which brings us to specter refinement! Yaaaaay...