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[Haspen]

You realize that sending 10 grain against 10 grain is only about 50% chance?

In last 3 turns, you've sent out 11 conquests and got 5 lands. That's ~45%.

I don't see why you have any reasons to complain here.

[notquitethere]

10 grain vs 10 grain is exactly 45% odds as defenders win ties. Here's the full table for reference:

For anyone wanting to work out the odds of taking a neutral territory,

Code: [Select]

# rice vs 10 defence
#   |  chance | relative value of additional rice   
1   = 0%
2   = 1%       +1
3   = 3%       +2
4   = 6%       +3
5   = 10%      +4
6   = 15%      +5
7   = 21%      +6
8   = 28%      +7
9   = 36%      +8
10  = 45%      +9
11  = 55%      +10
12  = 64%     +9
13  = 72%     +8
14  = 79%     +7
15  = 85%     +6
16  = 90%     +5
17  = 94%     +4
18  = 97%     +3
19  = 99%     +2
20  = 100%    +1


[Detoxicated]

Invest 45 Grain Into Atrebatea

[xelada]

orders:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

invest 48 into tingis

[notquitethere]

Spoiler: Sardinia (click to show/hide)

Conquer #35 with 13
Conquer #64 with 12
Conquer #61 with 12

[TricMagic]

Conquest!
10 Grain to the Defense of 80. [MARTIAL]
10 Grain to the Defense of 82. [MARTIAL]
16 Grain to the Conquest of 77. [MARTIAL]
11 Grain to the Conquest of 78. [MARTIAL]

And a formal declaration of WAR against the one who gets in my way to the Western Lands.

[Naturegirl1999]

Declaration recieved

[Haspen]

Martial Empire of Macedonia
Macedonian conquest of Pannonia: 16+6+2 vs 10+2 = 24 > 12
Macedonia conquers Pannonia! Pannonia pillaged for 5.
Macedonian conquest of Dalmatia is slowed down by soldiers of Aquileia! 11+2+2 vs 8+5 = 14 > 13
Macedonia conquers Dalmatia! Dalmatia pillaged for 2.

Maritime Sardinia
Sardinian conquest of Leptis Magna: 13+6 vs 10+4 = 19 > 15
Sardinia conquers Leptis Magna! Leptis Magna pillaged for 5.
Sardinian conquest of Aquitania: 12+5 vs 10+10 = 17 < 20
Sardinia fails to conquer Aquitania!
Sardinian conquest of Hispania: 12+5 vs 10+5 = 17 > 15
Sardinia conquers Hispania! Hispania pillaged for 5.

Plutocratic Atrebatea
Atrebatea invests 45 in Atrebatea.

Plutocratic Empire of Assyria

Spoiler: First Battle of Men-nefer (click to show/hide)

Assyrian conquest of Men-Nefer is slowed down by soldiers of Men-nefer! 33+8 vs 45+5 = 41 < 50
Assyria fails to conquer Men-Nefer!
Assyrian conquest of Siwa is unopposed!
Assyria conquers Siwa! Siwa pillaged for 2.
Assyrian conquest of Mafkat is unopposed!
Assyria conquers Mafkat! Mafkat pillaged for 2.

Oligarchic Aquileia
Aquileian conquest of Dacia is slowed down by soldiers of Macedonia! 13+5 vs 10+9+2 = 18 < 21
Aquileia fails to conquer Dacia!
Aquileian conquest of Moesia is slowed down by soldiers of Macedonia! 13+9 vs 10+2+2 = 22 > 14
Aquileia conquers Moesia! Moesia pillaged for 3.
Aquileia invests 5 in Umbria.

Plutocratic Sala
Sala invests 48 in Tingis.

Plutocratic Men-Nefer
Men-Neferian conquest of Judea is slowed down by soldiers of Assyria! 1+6 vs 6+6 = 7 < 12
Men-Nefer fails to conquer Judea!
Men-Neferian conquest of Buto is slowed down by soldiers of Assyria! 1+1 vs 6+5 = 2 < 11
Men-Nefer fails to conquer Buto!

TURN 7

Moves needed: TricMagic, notquitethere, Detoxicated, flazeo25, Naturegirl1999, xelada, melkor

Spoiler: Grain count (click to show/hide)

1. TricMagic, Martial Empire of Macedonia (T: 11, 84 = +6) (+5): Macedonia (10), Scythia (5), Dacia (5), Sarmatia (5), Alania (5), Pannonia (5), Dalmatia (3) = 49
2. notquitethere, Maritime Sardinia (T: 58, 5, 34, 54 = +12): Sardinia (11), Cartago (6), Oea (3), Tarraco (5), Leptis Magna (5), Hispania (5) = 47
3. Detoxicated, Plutocratic Atrebatea: Atrebatea (33), Icenia (11), Cornovia (16) = 60
4. flazeo25, Plutocratic Empire of Assyria (T: 9, 10 = +6) (+5): Assyria (11), Mesopotamia (5), Phoenicia (5), Cillicia (5), Ecbatana (5), Babilon (5), Judea (5), Buto (5), Siwa (3), Mafkat (3) = 63
5. Naturegirl1999, Oligarchic Aquileia (T: 39 = +3) (+5): Aquileia (12), Etruria (5), Umbria (6), Mediolanum (4), Moesia (3) = 38
6. xelada, Plutocratic Sala (T: 41, 60 = +6): Sala (25), Mauretania (14), Tingis (21) = 66
7. melkor, Plutocratic Men-Nefer (T: 28, 29 = +6): Men-nefer (31) = 37

[Naturegirl1999]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Use 13 grain to defend 46
Use 13 grain to defend 80
Use 12 grain to attack 78

[TricMagic]

This is a losing battle NG. Remember what happened in England.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

1 Grain to Invade 80. [Martial]
1+[5 Grain for travel] to Invade 45 by Sea.
15 Grain to the defense of 6. [Martial]
8 Grain to the defense of 78. [Martial]
19 Grain to Invade 46. [Martial]

Check: 1+6+15+8+19=49

[xelada]

@notquitethere of Sardinia: may I ask why you are choosing to expand into Hispania? You are equally as capable of expanding into Gaul, so it is suspect that you would choose to take the lands which are our only direction of expansion.
There are some in my court who see this as some form of aggression, they are almost certainly just paranoid fools and I am sure a good explanation would assuage their fears,

Orders:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Invest 33 in Mauretania
Invest 12 in Tingis
Use the rest to invade 55

[TricMagic]

A letter of warning many should heed. At least we make no lie between war and peace.

[notquitethere]

Xelada of Sala, I am moving into Gaul as well (just, that attack failed last turn). Defensively, I have decided against clumping up my lands and I was happy to leave buffer zones with you. It looked like you were content to stack high for now. If you wanted to come to an agreement about apportioning up lands then you should have said something earlier.

[Detoxicated]

Attack 66 with 24 grain
Invest 36 grain Into Atrabatea
How far can one invade over the sea? Just one sea or More?

[Naturegirl1999]

Attack 66 with 24 grain
Invest 36 grain Into Atrabatea
How far can one invade over the sea? Just one sea or More?

one sea