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[wierd]

As far as I am aware, this seems to be the course of events:

Chinese researchers investigating bat colonies for SARS like viruses (since such viruses are mostly asymptomatic in bats, and thus have stable reservoir populations) in bat colonies, looking to better understand this relationship, and to help identify (and thus, better create protocols to prevent or treat outbreaks of future disease) novel forms of corona virus in those populations.  Papers are written concerning this.

They found a novel virus.

They sent the virus to the lab that specializes in corona viruses. (in this case, the afore mentioned Wuhan lab)

Most corona viruses are not this terrible. The common cold, for instance, is caused by numerous species of corona virus. (which is why there is no single cure.)

As such, the protocols of the lab were not correct for a virus of this degree of danger, in hindsight.
Several workers there got sick, but the illness was not well diagnosed. (protocols to identify covid did not yet exist.)

The lab itself, however, analyzed the virus, determined it produced novel spike protein that was highly effective at attaching to human cell membranes, and then wrote a paper about it.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7048180/

Note, that science does hot happen instantly. The paper was published in Feb, but lots of work on the protein had already been completed, suggesting strongly that the researchers (Some of the cites on the author section are workers for Wuhan virology) had access to the virus for analysis very early.


This timeline of events does not disqualify "Originated in bats.", nor does it disqualify "Escaped from a lab."

The snakeoil is likely "Created in a lab", which is the misinformation that needs to be stomped out.

An inflamatory paper was retracted, which tried to make that kind of assertion.


More useful questions would be:

Did any of the sick workers from Wuhan Virology visit the Wuhan open air market?
If so, was this before or after the proposed exposure event?

Did the hospital(s) that these patients visited later show numerous covid-consistent infections, consistent with an exposure interval at the time of the patient's stay?

LiveScience has reported several times that the Wuhan seafood open air market is likely not the initial epicenter of infection, since while the surfaces of the market were swabbed, and tested positive for residues of the virus, none of the animals from the market tested positive for the virus.

This suggests that the virus was brought to the market by already infected humans, and not the other way around.

[Bumber]

All known methods of altering a virus leave fairly distinct traces. None of these are present in the virus responsible for COVID-19.

https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

True, some older methods of cutting and pasting viral genomes retain tell-tale signs of manipulation. But newer methods, called “no-see-um” or “seamless” approaches, leave no defining marks. Nor do other methods for manipulating viruses such as serial passage, the repeated transfer of viruses from one culture of cells to another. If a virus has been manipulated, whether with a seamless method or by serial passage, there is no way of knowing that this is the case.

Did any of the sick workers from Wuhan Virology visit the Wuhan open air market?
If so, was this before or after the proposed exposure event?

Workers were hospitalized at some point in November 2019.

Earliest confirmed case of COVID is an old man who was hospitalized on December 1st, who had no tie to the wet market. More cases (41) began to pour in starting December 8th and peaked at December 29th. The first 4 cases to be officially confirmed (not necessarily the first 4 hospitalizations of that wave) were tied to the wet market.

So it's not even a question of if the workers visited the wet market, or came into contact with someone who later visited the market. Given the time table, it's further removed than that.

[martinuzz]

https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

True, some older methods of cutting and pasting viral genomes retain tell-tale signs of manipulation. But newer methods, called “no-see-um” or “seamless” approaches, leave no defining marks. Nor do other methods for manipulating viruses such as serial passage, the repeated transfer of viruses from one culture of cells to another. If a virus has been manipulated, whether with a seamless method or by serial passage, there is no way of knowing that this is the case.

Indeed. Especially since CRISPR/cas9 genome editing, every lab can alter genomes without leaving a trace.

EDIT: hmm wait, I might be mistaken there. Not sure if CRISPR/cas9 works with viral RNA

[Bumber]

Indeed. Especially since CRISPR/cas9 genome editing, every lab can alter genomes without leaving a trace.

EDIT: hmm wait, I might be mistaken there. Not sure if CRISPR/cas9 works with viral RNA

Same article:

But RNA is difficult to manipulate, so researchers working on coronaviruses, which are RNA-based, will first convert the RNA genome to DNA. They manipulate the DNA version, whether by adding or altering genes, and then arrange for the manipulated DNA genome to be converted back into infectious RNA.

Edit: Moved this here since edits on previous post were getting large:

The snakeoil is likely "Created in a lab", which is the misinformation that needs to be stomped out.

If only the director of the lab, Shi Zhengli-li, weren't involved in exactly that kind of research in 2015:

Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone.

There's another one published in 2017, which seems to be one done at the WIV. Apparently, the 2017 study prompted diplomats and scientists to visit the WIV in 2018 and warn about a lack of trained technicians and investigators.

Senator Rand Paul was grilling Fauci over this, claiming he approved gain-of-function research at the WIV (grant R01AI110964.) The NIH lifted the restriction on gain of function research at the end of 2017, and the grants continued to fund WIV research until 2020, when Trump pressured the NIH to cancel it. The question is if the WIV was modifying coronaviruses to be more transmissible up to the point of the outbreak. Kind of sounds like that's what's involved in testing the spike proteins' prediction of the infectiousness on human cells using "reverse genetics and infectious clone technology".

[ChairmanPoo]

Earliest confirmed case of COVID is an old man who was hospitalized on December 1st, who had no tie to the wet market. More cases (41) began to pour in starting December 8th and peaked at December 29th. The first 4 cases to be officially confirmed (not necessarily the first 4 hospitalizations of that wave) were tied to the wet market.

This is clearly untrue.  They traced covid cases as far back as november in March 2020


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report

[martinuzz]

Earliest confirmed case of COVID is an old man who was hospitalized on December 1st, who had no tie to the wet market. More cases (41) began to pour in starting December 8th and peaked at December 29th. The first 4 cases to be officially confirmed (not necessarily the first 4 hospitalizations of that wave) were tied to the wet market.

This is clearly possibly untrue.  They traced covid cases as far back as november in March 2020


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report

Fixed that for you. It is only untrue if 'media reports on unpublished Chinese government data' AND said Chinese government data are true.

[Bumber]

This is clearly untrue.  They traced covid cases as far back as november in March 2020

That'd be even more reason the market's irrelevant. I don't have any data on when in November the lab workers were hospitalized, though, to compare to November 17th.

[Bumber]

Got second dose of vaccine earlier today. So far only sore arm.

Edit: Next day, still just sore arm. Looks like I've avoided getting the bad reaction.

[martinuzz]

Hurray, starting today, people from my birth year (1978) can make a vaccination appointment.
I'll try again later, the waiting row is longer than my phone's battery could handle.

[feelotraveller]

The WHO have introduced a common naming protocol for Covid-19 variants.  They will be designated by Greek letters.  This is in addition to rather than a replacement of their scientific names and intended for day to day usage.  It is designed to avoid stigmatisation of countries - for example instead of the South African strain it will be referred to as the Beta variant.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/01/covid-19-variants-to-be-given-greek-alphabet-names-to-avoid-stigma

[None]

Given the pushback we saw when people were calling out the Great Britain variant, this seems appropriate, though the people who still call it the Kung Flu may feel it's irresponsible to depersonalize the target of their blame. Eh, that's for them to gnash teeth over.

From the article, though, it'll be interesting to see if this is somehow utilized to suppress discussion of variants the way India has about its variant. I'd imagine doing a search for "covid india phi" would narrow your search down a lot further than "covid india variant" would. 'Course, it'd need a formal WHO variant assignment to get that anyways, so it'd be difficult to stop global recognition.

[MrRoboto75]

virgin beta strain versus the CHAD alpha strain

[feelotraveller]

For any serious epidemiological purpose you would still be better off searching for B.1.617.2 (and/or B.1.617.1) rather than Indian strain or Delta (and/or Kappa).  Of course if the research is more sociological/media analysis focussed then other bounds apply .

In more pointed comment can we imagine the 'pushback' if instead of just hosting a mutated version India (or Great Britain for that matter) were the site of origin of the disease.   

[TamerVirus]

In other news/possible ominous foreshadowing, a man in China was diagnosed with H10N3 bird flu, the 'first human case'. However, they say not to worry because 'risk of large-scale transmission is low"  (Now where did I hear that before?)

[martinuzz]

Yesterday I tried making a vaccination appointment, to find out that all locations somewhat nearby are booked completely full.
They asked me to try again next week.

Ofcourse I didn't wait a week, I called again today.

So, yay, june 11th I'll get my first shot, july 16th my second. Now I just need to find someone with a car willing to take me there, because it's nowhere near my city.