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[DeKaFu]

The protection afforded by the single dose is very significant for Moderna and Pfizer jabs.  It is not full potency until after the second jab (Then it reaches 90+% resistance), but the first confers very profound resistance.

I see this quoted a lot as justification for the delay, but as far as I know the 80% number refers to the peak efficacy that occurs a couple weeks after the injection, before it begins dropping. I've been hunting for any studies that show what efficacy is at the 12-16 week range, and have come up completely blank. The closest I found was one that seemingly pooled the numbers up to around 12 weeks (so lumping people who'd gotten it two weeks ago and three months ago into the same average, making it impossible to tease out how the long wait affects people). If anyone actually knows of a study that addresses this, I'd love to see it and be reassured.

[Iduno]

The protection afforded by the single dose is very significant for Moderna and Pfizer jabs.  It is not full potency until after the second jab (Then it reaches 90+% resistance), but the first confers very profound resistance.

I see this quoted a lot as justification for the delay, but as far as I know the 80% number refers to the peak efficacy that occurs a couple weeks after the injection, before it begins dropping. I've been hunting for any studies that show what efficacy is at the 12-16 week range, and have come up completely blank. The closest I found was one that seemingly pooled the numbers up to around 12 weeks (so lumping people who'd gotten it two weeks ago and three months ago into the same average, making it impossible to tease out how the long wait affects people). If anyone actually knows of a study that addresses this, I'd love to see it and be reassured.

I think a lot of it depends on how quickly and widely it's spreading, which both allow for more mutations. Like here, where nobody gives a shit about anything, we have incredibly high rates, and have seen a lot of people getting re-infected despite all of the arguments about "herd immunity."

[McTraveller]

and have seen a lot of people getting re-infected despite all of the arguments about "herd immunity."

Is this true, or anecdotal? I mean I would expect the media to be all over itself if this was statistically true.  There was that "one" case last summer, and it was everywhere...

Looks like a Denmark study on 4 million people indicate 0.65% (65 per 10,000) of people who had been COVID-19 positive have had "reinfection."  That's a small percent, but not a small absolute number... I mean holy smokes it seems like at least in the US, 10% of the entire population has had COVID-19?  31M total positive cases. That's 3k ten-thousands, which means we should be seeing 200k reinfections.  Even if you just take the "recovered" number from the US, that would still be over 100k reinfections.  Maybe if you take that number and discount it further so it's just "recovered for more than 4 months", I think that would be only half those recovered - so still 50k reinfected.

Wouldn't the media be screaming about this even if it was as many as 10k?

Also interesting tidbits: the positive test fraction of all tests in my state has surged to 18%.  WTF?

We've also apparently had half our state with at least one dose of a vaccine, and 20% of the state with full doses.  I'm like - at some point there has to be an inflection point yes? Supposedly 8% of the people in the state have had the disease, probably more if you account for people that didn't know they had it.

Either the numbers don't mean what they seem to mean, there really is a major impact of new strains, or the people in the state who haven't been infected yet have basically given up any preventive measures.

EDIT: powers of 10 Fix!

[Frumple]

US 10% is more like officially confirmed to have had covid, iirc? Seem to recall reasonable ballpark for likely infected is more like a quarter to a third of the country... so far. Even with vaccine rollout, it's not like the plague had ended or anything. In places the new variants and dumbshit opening mess are straight up causing surges

[Jopax]

Welp, looks like we've finally lost the lottery after so many close calls. Dad tested positive yesterday (after spending several days walking around the house, coughing his heart out over everything), the rest of us are getting tested tomorrow. It's shitty because I woke up to get ready for work and get told I'm probably positive so having to call in last minute replacement was kinda shitty, especially on a weekend.

At least now I know why this apparent cold has been so annoying and causing such a long lasting headache. I just hope it doesn't really go on for too long because a week of feeling unable to think properly is plenty imo :I

Luckily tho, nobody else seems to be in a bad way so far, mostly just a nastier cold by the looks of it.

[Iduno]

and have seen a lot of people getting re-infected despite all of the arguments about "herd immunity."

Is this true, or anecdotal?

For me? It's a lot of people, but I mostly know people who were considered essential until it was time to hand out vaccines. Public-facing jobs and the like.

And we have one of the highest COVID rates in the US, which is pretty impressive, so we have one of the highest rates of mutation. Makes it easier to re-infect.

[martinuzz]

Last week, our RIVM (dutch CDC), was happy to announce that the third wave was only half as strong as models predicted it would be.
Our government in turn, happily announced that they were considering re-opening outside terraces for pubs, and re-opening highschools and universities. Today, they postponed that with at least a week.
All our hospitals are near the limit of their ICU capacity. ICUs haven't been this full since the first wave in 2020.
My neurologist doctor friend told me today that in her hospital, they have been preparing for 'the black scenario' the past few weeks... Triage.. Having to decide who gets an ICU bed and who gets to die without one.

Fuck this pandemic and fuck all the contradicting statements by various CDCs and virologists. Maybe they should just abolish the CDC, send the virologists on a long (deserved) vacation, and only listen to the medics in the (ICU) field for a while.

EDIT: except, that won't work, because the ICU experts are too busy saving lives on the ICUs to be bothered with giving advice to the government.

[MrRoboto75]

We should also only learn the culinary arts from our plumbers

[martinuzz]

Haha it's a nice comparison, but that's not how I intended it. It's just that those working on the ICU have a more direct view of... uh... how many more beds they have left and how long they expect beds to stay occupied. I'd say that's a better measure of urgency than plotting graphs from corona testing figures.

[Jopax]

To be fair, they only said it wasn't as bad as they expected it to be. The blame should squarely be on the government interpreting that as "YEP OPEN EVERYTHING NOW!"

For some reason the twits interpret any tiny amount of good news or improvement in the overall situation as a signal to try and go back to normal right away.

[Starver]

I see there's a pause suggested in the US of the J&J vaccine, for blood-clotting "over-abundance of caution".

(I think the key word is still 'over'. 6 cases in >6million doses is actually a million-to-one thing. That it's six women may be significant, but that they're all in the younger demographics probably isn't, if that's the range that was now the main focus.)


Also, Scotland's opening up inter-area travel, for mental-health reasons. Honestly, I know of some people already pushed this one a little, already, going from one end of their region to the other for safe and isolating activities but outwith the spirit of the regulation (travelling the same distance in another direction, they'd have broken the regulation officially, though still been as safe), so I'm not sure what the ultimate cost/benefit balance will be in allowing broader meet-ups. Still supposedly limited in scope, but you'll bet it'll be pushed slightly (or more) over the limit in some cases. (Yes, I was already socially introverted, maybe I just don't get it.)

Keeping an eye on England's rates, with the unlock-back-ups stages already done and imminent. The other nations too (though Norn Irnd is complicated with sectarian rioting, on top of it all).

[martinuzz]

The use of J&J is now also postponed in the entire EU.

[TamerVirus]

It seems blot clotting seems to be a thing with the Adenovirus vaccines

[McTraveller]

It does seem odd to me - 1 in a million clot, versus the risks of clotting? Even if it's 10x that, 1 in 100k - that's still far less than hazard associated with contracting COVID-19.

Sounds like a "perfect is the greatest enemy of good enough" situation to me.

To be fair, I don't know where you should draw the line for "this is an acceptable level of risk for this vaccine."  I mean if it's on the same order of magnitude of hazard of the illness, then yeah it's no good.  But what is the commonly accepted criteria?  Is there an accepted criteria?  I'm familiar with acceptable levels of risk for the transportation industry* and "1 in a million" after accounting for total population is definitely "acceptable".

Disclaimer: My wife got the J&J shot, so I do have skin in this game.  I just got a first dose of Pfizer.

Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)

The most stringent requirements for aircraft are for avoiding catastrophic failures at less than 1 per billion hours. Reality is far less than that if you do the math across all the flight hours per year given the actual observed catastrophic failure occurrence (the media sensationally notwithstanding).  Automotive aim for less than 10 per billion hours - which again, when you multiply by hundreds of millions of cars per year, driving for hundreds or thousands of hours per year, is on the order of macroscopic events per year - 100s to 1000s per year of what are listed in the formal analyses as potentially hazardous events.

[ChairmanPoo]

The risk of thrombosis with these vaccines seems to be 1 per million
The risk of thrombosis with covid is 1 in 5.

TBH I think the risk benefit is clear