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[Naturegirl1999]

It's yet another perfectly disgusting way to group people into we vs them.
Wish people could stop labelling everything and making up new retarded abbreviations

But if we don't do that, how will we know who to BLAME?

Blame for what? No one intended for the virus to be as widespread as it is. Ethnicity is not a determinant in whether a human follows lockdown procedures.

[wierd]

It's yet another perfectly disgusting way to group people into we vs them.
Wish people could stop labelling everything and making up new retarded abbreviations

But if we don't do that, how will we know who to BLAME?

Blame for what? No one intended for the virus to be as widespread as it is. Ethnicity is not a determinant in whether a human follows lockdown procedures.

Joke seen flying over multiple heads. News crews report that spectators were confused by what just happened. A leading analyst explains:

What about Black, Latino, Asian, and other Minority Ethnicity?

It's perfect!

Black
Latino
Asian
(and)
Minor
Ethnicity
+
--------------

B L A M E


Given that the entire purpose of the moniker is to cast aspersions, doubts, and blame on that demographic (so as to avoid having to contend with reality that would otherwise force changes in a person's actions and behavior, in a selfish bid to not change at all), changling the moniker thusly--- Is as stated, "PERFECT."

[Robsoie]

Looks like racial separatists/racists are still hard at work, creating new stupid acronyms in their attempts to promote their usual "we against them" ideology this time in coordination with a pandemic.
 
Anyways back to covid outbreak worldwide, considering how many morons seem to not understand why they should put a mask when going into crowded areas, maybe adapting the explanation is in order so even they can understand , and it looks like someone found how to explain :

[ChairmanPoo]

Yeah this all began because I think BAME is a stupid label and saying that BAME doctors are getting more covid because of susceptibiliry is doubly stupid.

[ZBridges]

On June 26th, the USA recorded the highest increase in new cases ever.  There were 45,498 new cases recorded on that day, an increase of about 10,000 from the previous highest, in April.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

[McTraveller]

Eh, new cases is a sensational but not terribly helpful statistic.  You need more information - what is the positive rate? Is this serological, PCR, or diagnostic? Is this new "active" cases or is this "probably had it two months ago and was never/mildly symptomatic"?

The more important numbers are new deaths per day and ICU usage.  We will have to, unfortunately, wait about 7 more days before we see if the rumors of weakening are true, or if we will see the uptick in daily deaths; the recent increases in daily case counts started about 7 days ago so the "real" impacts are still a ways off.

[ZBridges]

Deaths per day are down over the past 14 days, by 28%, but new cases are up over the same period by 69%.  Test positivity rates are up about 1% week over week.  The data does include "probable" cases in addition to confirmed cases.

[Max™]

NO, deaths per day is not useful, deaths per day says what happened last month, cases and positive rate are both up.

[Starver]

So, anyway, like I said:

[...]it'll be interesting to later compare any rises seen [...]

[...] Certainly much too early to tell what BF (Before Floyd) and AF eras might look like, at this time.

(It is irrelevent what causes some sections of society to be more susceptible. It is irrelevent what terms we use to describe such sections, and nobody seemed to have problems with my Redneck reference. And I was always happier with that too, TBH.)


Retrospective analysis, a month or two further down the line is going to be a better indication of "what is happening today" than any measure, even figures for discovered cases.  Still, we have to make do with what we have.

[thompson]

Eh, new cases is a sensational but not terribly helpful statistic.  You need more information - what is the positive rate? Is this serological, PCR, or diagnostic? Is this new "active" cases or is this "probably had it two months ago and was never/mildly symptomatic"?

The more important numbers are new deaths per day and ICU usage.  We will have to, unfortunately, wait about 7 more days before we see if the rumors of weakening are true, or if we will see the uptick in daily deaths; the recent increases in daily case counts started about 7 days ago so the "real" impacts are still a ways off.

Plot cases in Florida, California, or Texas vs time. Looks like a nice exponential curve to me. Pretty fucking steep too. It conforms to everything we know about viral transmission, so “fresh outbreaks within specific geographic areas” will be the mental model I go with until better data becomes available.

[Bumber]

Plot cases in Florida, California, or Texas vs time. Looks like a nice exponential curve to me. Pretty fucking steep too. It conforms to everything we know about viral transmission, so “fresh outbreaks within specific geographic areas” will be the mental model I go with until better data becomes available.

As I pointed out a few pages ago, you have to account for increases in testing. California's been stable in percent positive tests for around 3 months, staying around 5%.

Texas is trending upwards, increasing from 7% to 14% over the last two weeks. Florida's had a huge spike, going from 5% to 15%.

[hector13]

Wisconsin is trending upwards now in terms of positive cases too.

Can’t find numbers for hospitalizations on the state department of health website, but I haven’t looked very hard. I lied. There was apparently a high of 350 hospitalizations in the Southeast - Milwaukee was the hardest hit area, unsurprising - while it’s a touch lower than 200 just now. It was steady around 250 there from the middle to the end of May, then dropped until last week.

Hopefully this is a blip, and things continue either a downward trend or just steady out a bit.

[thompson]

As I pointed out a few pages ago, you have to account for increases in testing. California's been stable in percent positive tests for around 3 months, staying around 5%.

Texas is trending upwards, increasing from 7% to 14% over the last two weeks. Florida's had a huge spike, going from 5% to 15%.

California’s curve has been sloping upward fairly gently, so not surprised it could be due to testing. Thanks for that. There could also be a confounding effect there where more people getting the virus lead to more contact tracing bringing in negative results, which would deflate the positive rate despite a real increase in infections. We’d also need more data on California’s testing regime to come to any form conclusions there. The curve is beautifully exponential, which leads me to suspect the increase in daily cases is real, though possibly overstated.

 The Texas/Florida data also makes sense given the numbers I am seeing. I should probably stress that I am a physicist by trade, so have a good deal of experience with numerical modelling, so to me at least it seems obvious that the sudden inflection point in Florida’s data and shift to rapid exponential growth could only really be explained by a large outbreak. For people who haven’t studied differential equations my current musings probably sound like numerology.

[Iduno]

Yeah, going from nearly overcrowded ICU back to normal took us about three months over here in the Netherlands, and our hospitals are better equipped than those in the US (at least those hospitals that are not built for the very wealthy patients).
So yeah, expect 3 months or more of lockdown being nescessary in Texas.

They managed 1 month last time. Wonder how long this time will last. Or the next...

They (Texas and Florida, to different degrees) still aren't testing or reporting properly, so remember that the numbers are hugely under-reported.

[martinuzz]

Geez, looking at some graphs in my newspaper, you guys in the US are in for some serious trouble.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/coronabeleid-vs-volgt-politieke-en-geen-wetenschappelijke-lijnen~b4dd86c0f/

You should better lockdown everything again.