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[Starver]

So, it appears NY, NJ and... CT...? want visitors/returnees from Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North/South Carolina, Texas, Washington state and Utah to quarantine themselves.
I was going to use the official initialisms for them all, but my confidence went when I wasn't terribly sure about Conneticut.

Interesting to see certain tables turn (I think the US is already absent from the list of countries the EU likes people to arrive from).  Some voices from the earlier times (when the threat was reversed) will doubtless be unusually quiet.

[TamerVirus]

Turnabout is fair play.
Florida and Texas are about to have a really rough couple of days ahead

[Frumple]

Days? Gods fuck but if it's something measured just in days instead of weeks or months we're going to have an evidence point in favor of the existence of the goddamn divine.

[McTraveller]

The South Carolina thing is personally concerning.  My brother and his family (in the upstate), and my parents (on the coast) live there.  We have an annual trip that we usually plan to go visit them, scheduled for three weeks from now.  This was looking like no issue for most of the spring up until like a week ago when the "warm states" started showing signs of outbreak.

Who knows if we'll even be able to travel there now (or if we can travel, will we be allowed to return home)?

My state (MI) also has registered the highest new cases count in 23 days.  I'm not sure yet if this is the first evidence of the relaxation of social distancing a week ago, a reflection of more testing, or both.

[Zangi]

Incubation time is roughly 5 days, so not too surprising. 

Murrica is gonna keep circulating plague between red states and blue states in perpetuity now.

Edit: well more accurately half of Murrica will start to spread the plague when the other half starts to relax.
Such is the price we shall pay for lack of leadership.

[Frumple]

I mean, for a year or two, until a vaccine shows up. Then it'll mostly be confined to anti-vax holdouts.

Assuming the folks at the top don't manage to somehow fuck up production and distribution, which isn't nearly as reliable a bet as it should be

[Ziusudra]

I mean, for a year or two, until a vaccine shows up. Then it'll mostly be confined to anti-vax holdouts.

Assuming the folks at the top don't manage to somehow fuck up production and distribution, which isn't nearly as reliable a bet as it should be

And that it doesn't mutate enough to evade the vaccine.

[martinuzz]

While I really do hope that a vaccin will be found, I do worry about policy makers taking it for granted that one will be found.
I mean, after 50+ years of trying, there's still no vaccin against HIV.. Or against the common cold corona virusses (and that has been tried albeit not very extensively).

Assuming there will be a vaccin in 1-2 years is very much wishful thinking.

[Starver]

Not quite 50+, I think. HIV may have been historically around for a good few years prior to the end of the 70s - ISTR that they've established a first-in-human date several decades ((edit: c.1910s, by some analyses)) prior to it finding a good new pool of hosts - we're still talking mid-80s before it was sufficiently known for what it was and therefore need a cure, beyond mere ineffectual treatment. And then it's a darn tricky thing to vaccinate against, by its very nature.

That said, even a rather more well-behaved family such as the coronaviruses (by all accounts easier to deal with than the seasonal flu brand) is likely to not roll over to be tickled on the tummy quite so readily. Our main hope is the accelerated ingenuity of our more sophisticated biotech researchers, turbo-charged by the shock of the amazingly sudden appearance of need (arguably more substance and less hype[1]) will give us something better than lifetime reliance upon social caution and (for those that succumb) hope that theraputic medication grants them sufficient recovery to live 'normally' for the rest of their allotted three-score years and ten(s).


It is a different kind of time than 1919, but we've reached the same level of abilities over longer time (because without the 'Spanish' Flu, we may not have had the same kick-start to what we now have) and yet are always a step or three behind influenza's particular dance of death. (If we're lucky, COVID does prefer just to jostle around its handbag rather than tango all across the dancefloor. Watch this space?)


[1] Not to downplay AIDS, but breathing while shopping is something almost everyone does(/did). And is harder to suggest/legislate that you avoid than in the case of promiscuous sex and/or injecting chemical stimulants. That then make less illicit side-vectors more dangerous. And merely being in a ward for a hip-op or other casual ailment is another level more insidious for more 'normal' people than requiring blood-products that end up having been incautiously sourced and process.

[Frumple]

While I really do hope that a vaccin will be found, I do worry about policy makers taking it for granted that one will be found.
I mean, after 50+ years of trying, there's still no vaccin against HIV.. Or against the common cold corona virusses (and that has been tried albeit not very extensively).

Assuming there will be a vaccin in 1-2 years is very much wishful thinking.

It's what most seriousface virusfolk I've seen talking are suggesting. There's already tentative shit in existence, it just needs testing to make sure it's not a "worse than the disease" deal, from what I understand.

Also, we have vaccines for corona viruses, just not for humans (due largely to how fucked up the incentives are for private medical research, rather than anything on the actual development side of things), and the reasons for the disparity just don't exist with the crow plague. HIV also just... isn't the same sort of thing as the virus powering the plague, at the moment. More stable, less strains flapping around, less like, blatant fucking sabotage and crap involved in the earlier periods of study. Different sort of virus, different challenges.

I don't think believing the timeline of folks in the field that aren't spouting wildly optimistic "6 months, seriously!" horseshit is wishful thinking, y'know?

[kaijyuu]

The "common cold" refers to a very large number of viruses/bacteria with similar symptoms, so they're not analogous.

The flu is a crazy and bizarre virus that frequently mutates due to having like 5 different rna strands that can be interchanged. That's why we have to have seasonal vaccines. So, also not analogous.

The hard part about coronavirus is that it attacks external tissue, like the lining of the esophagus and lungs. You don't have much blood flow there, so not much room for immune response. This partially explains the seemingly severe immune response, and shows that a vaccine done improperly could just make things worse (stronger response = more chance for pneumonia and other things from overproduction of mucus, inflammation, etc).

It's a fairly typical virus beyond that so I don't see it mutating to the point where we'd need a new vaccine every year or something. We'll likely be able to heavily stop its spread if not outright eliminate it eventually, provided nutsos like anti-vaccers don't get in the way. It'll just take some time... and hope that it doesn't spread more than it needs to in that time, despite what certain politicians would seemingly prefer.

[misko27]

It's a fairly typical virus beyond that so I don't see it mutating to the point where we'd need a new vaccine every year or something. We'll likely be able to heavily stop its spread if not outright eliminate it eventually, provided nutsos like anti-vaccers don't get in the way. It'll just take some time... and hope that it doesn't spread more than it needs to in that time, despite what certain politicians would seemingly prefer.

I would like to, ah, add on to this here. We actually do know how quickly SARS-CoV-2 mutates, one of those few things we're quite certain of. It's got a stable mutation rate which is slow and steady, with even some of the newest strains showing quite relatively little divergence from the original strain. It does mutate, but fairly predictably.

Also, the virus continues to positively explode in some US states, with California posting a record of 7000 cases just a day after posting a record 5,000 cases. The US overall is up 47% from two-weeks ago in cases-per-day.

Spoiler: And the graphs for some individual states can be a little terrifying. (click to show/hide)

[Max™]

We regularly get infected by various rhinoviruses which are very similar to coronaviruses.

Said rhinoviruses keep returning because the antibodies fade over time and the initial infections aren't general severe enough to trigger a more aggressive and longer lasting response in the first place, so getting a cold sucks, but trying to hit the various different moving targets each year as the different remnant caches in each population take turns spreading and retreating for a few days of sneezing and bleary feeling with a mild coof coof just doesn't end up seeming worth it.

Sometimes with a flu strain, even as a young non-smoker you really feel that while you probably won't die... it might be a nice break from this goddamn wracking cough and being too sore to do anything but rest but you're too achy to actually fall asleep between coughing fits. Next time somebody says "it's just like the flu" they should be popped in the nose good and hard, the flu sucks you stupid cunts. I'll take it over an abscessed molar or sinus infection--both of which are tied at the 10 spot on my pain scale, nut kicks have slid to like a 5 or 6 now, and rasping a knuckle is a solid 3 or 4, while my worst flu has been around a 3 or 4 steady with coughing spikes to a 5--at least with the flu I've never noticed losing stretches of time due to pain so overwhelming all I can remember is a hateful white emptiness of agony with no real recollection of how long it lasted, just memories of realizing I was screaming without knowing why.

So sure, the flu isn't as bad as that but I'd be cool with never catching it again, and the idea of getting another deep fucking lungache infection sounds around as fun as getting shot.

Sure, COVID-19 can apparently be a mild "was that it, really?" like a more coughy-than-usual-cold, it can also end up kicking your ass like the flu on steroids, and that's if you don't get the massive cytokine storm shit where your body just zerg rushes itself trying to fight off the virus and drowning in your own lungs becomes a serious fucking risk.

Let's not forget the people who started out with a fairly severe-but-not-fatal gamut of symptoms, start thinking they're coming back out of it, and then kinda wobble back and forth between "walking to the bathroom left me wanting to fall over and die once I stop coughing" and "fever is almost gone and lungs barely hurt... maybe it's almost over" for weeks or more apparently.

Thankfully those aren't a super common outcome (if you can call lingering in sickness limbo for who the fuck knows how long an outcome) but it's yet another thing to remember is on the chart of outcomes if you roll those dice.

[Frumple]

Eh, sinus infection/headache is a solid nine (they've knocked me unconscious before), but I still haven't encountered something that meets the hard 10 of a kidney stone. Those are wild, hallucinations and vomiting, debilitating please-just-fucking-kill-me, hurts too bad to pass out, pain tier. Would not recommend.

3-4 with spikes of 5 is indeed pretty solid estimate for flu, tho'. Shit sucks.

[wierd]

It's a fairly typical virus beyond that so I don't see it mutating to the point where we'd need a new vaccine every year or something. We'll likely be able to heavily stop its spread if not outright eliminate it eventually, provided nutsos like anti-vaccers don't get in the way. It'll just take some time... and hope that it doesn't spread more than it needs to in that time, despite what certain politicians would seemingly prefer.

I would like to, ah, add on to this here. We actually do know how quickly SARS-CoV-2 mutates, one of those few things we're quite certain of. It's got a stable mutation rate which is slow and steady, with even some of the newest strains showing quite relatively little divergence from the original strain. It does mutate, but fairly predictably.

Also, the virus continues to positively explode in some US states, with California posting a record of 7000 cases just a day after posting a record 5,000 cases. The US overall is up 47% from two-weeks ago in cases-per-day.

Spoiler: And the graphs for some individual states can be a little terrifying. (click to show/hide)

[almost British levels of dry contempt]
And this was completely unexpected. Nobody could have predicted this outcome.
[/dry contempt]


[ordinary sarcasm]
 Opening the economy (and beaches) back up before global public health experts recommended was just doing what their constituents(*) were insisting they do, and the data(+) they had seemed to suggest it would be A-OK(#).
[/sarcasm]


(*) Noam Chomsky is famous for his literature about engineered consent. (Stop here. Go absorb the subject. Come back.) It has not really ever been on such "in-your-face" display as in the past 4 years of the Trump administration though, especially recently. The major constituency that was demanding reopening was the financial and retail sectors, but those groups were cozy with the Trump campaign, and that group's PAC was hard at work engineering consent to convince the public to "Be Like Sweden!" and the like, boosting the volume of people who wanted to return to work despite the risks, wanted to go back out and socialize, despite the risks, etc-- all in direct contravention of basically every public health professional on the god-damned planet.  Because "The MONIESS!!! THE MONIES!!" By boosting the volume on those public voices, they created a "convenient" false-majority-opinion that they could then point to, to dislodge blame from themselves and their political allies for this move, which there is no question they *WERE* strongly advised not to undertake, but which they did anyway, callously, and with purpose and contempt for human life.

(+) See Trump's recent faux-pas about testing "Going too fast!", etc.  The poor quality of the data has been purposefully assured, the data itself that was collected has been purposefully tampered with, and it is being cherry picked in the worst possible ways to attempt to justify the wishes of the financial and retail sector constituency to reopen the economy, and damn the public health consequences.

(#) Because they have basically thrown actual rigor out the goddamn window, they can reach whatever pre-conceived conclusion they want.