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[TD1]

But you want me to vote for Joe

Though this really is the wrong thread for the discussion.

[Teneb]

Well, apparently people here in Brasil be ignoring the social distancing. So that's nice and will totally not result in a lot of dead people. I mean, it's not like we have passed 1200 confirmed deaths and a lot more strange deaths of respiratory failure and pneumonia.

I'm lucky enough that my family can sustain my unemployed ass and that we can stay isolated. But still.

[misko27]

Brazil really makes me nervous because they have (or had) similar infected numbers to Russia per capita (and even in absolute it was pretty close)... but 1000 deaths to Russia's 100. I'm sure Russia's miscounting some deaths (honestly, really, who isn't?), but COVID-19 has a 2%-ish deathrate, not a 10% death rate... I'm guessing the real infected numbers are pretty bad.

[Max™]

We're coming up on 3 million tests in the US now.

That's nearly 9000 tests per 1,000,000 people.

We know of around 590k cases here since it began, with roughly 526k of those currently infected and 12k of those are serious.

The gap between active and total cases in the states breaks down so far as 36,498 recoveries, and 23,644 deaths.

That looks right around 4% to me (600/100=6, 23/6~=4) and unfortunately we still haven't done nearly enough tests to even guess if we've done enough tests to make a rough estimate of total infections active right now, and accordingly any sense of the true number of lives lost so far is hopefully somewhere in the gray area between "bad" and "worse" instead of off in the distance beyond "curl up and sob" mountain.

[martinuzz]

The first of the sailors from the Theodore Roosevelt has died to corona, 11 days after his commanding officer was fired for being concerned about the wellbeing of his crew.

[McTraveller]

The commander wasn't fired because he was concerned for his crew. He was fired because he didn't follow proper chain of command and/or security procedures.  If you can't understand that difference and why it matters in a military vessel... (and this coming from a person who is by no means a military apologist).

In other news - what's up with all these personae popping up on the media saying that the medical establishment is wrong about COVID, and it can't be solved with modern medicine but instead we have to use homeopathic methods?  What gets me about these isn't the concept that vitamins and "being healthy" can help your immune system.  What gets me is the tone of absolute authority these voices have.

[wierd]

Healthcare quackery is old as sin.

In the US, we have given a megaphone to those twits. They are usually the same people who "Anti-vaxx for religious reasons", where "religious reasons" is 'Crystal healing woo.'


No. The virus is very well researched at this point. We know a lot about its morphology, many of its proteins, how its capsid is assembled, etc.... 

Social distancing and proper hygiene.  Do those things.  Dont listen to morons suggesting tonic water, there is no evidence that quinine in it has any effect whatsoever.

[Frumple]

We're coming up on 3 million tests in the US now.

That's nearly 9000 tests per 1,000,000 people.

That's almost a full percent of the population! Not quite. It's still <1%. But it's almost out of the (0.009) tenths of hundredths! Almost. Not there yet. But getting there. Only took. *checks notes* Shit, timeline's fuzzy. Call it two months, be generous? Give it another month for a full percent, or 3 months per percent of the population tested. Do that 100 more times and a quarter century from now we'd have tested everyone :V

Well, they were saying something like only 70-80% likely infection saturation, so only 70-80 more times, so 17-20 more years to identify everyone that caught it. I guess if we just stick to the dead (which, I'unno, rate there's all over the place, let's go with 4% of infected? That's under worse case seen, iirc.) it'd only take like (70*3*.04) 9 months to positively identify the dead if I'm mathing right after being awake for like five minutes. By that point we're probably going to be more busy trying to figure out what to do with those hundreds of thousands of extra corpses...

...

There's going to be a lot of people that die from the crow plague untested, a lot of deaths not acknowledged as caused by it, huh.

The commander wasn't fired because he was concerned for his crew. He was fired because he didn't follow proper chain of command and/or security procedures.  If you can't understand that difference and why it matters in a military vessel... (and this coming from a person who is by no means a military apologist).

That was 'cause the chain of command was trying to get his subordinates fucking killed by the crow plague, though. From what I understand they weren't the first in American military history to do pull that, some largely without censure, and probably won't be the last.

Though last I checked he wasn't even fired. Someone or another figured out that shitcanning the guy trying to keep his people from drowning in their own lungs after his superiors fucked up handling the situation was a bad look, I guess.

In other news - what's up with all these personae popping up on the media saying that the medical establishment is wrong about COVID, and it can't be solved with modern medicine but instead we have to use homeopathic methods?  What gets me about these isn't the concept that vitamins and "being healthy" can help your immune system.  What gets me is the tone of absolute authority these voices have.

Fuck, these shits make their goddamn living off this crap. Peddling horseshit to the desperate is literally their standard operating procedure. That tone of absolute authority is how they functionally murder and defraud people under normal circumstances. Covid's probably a goddamn superstimulus to those fuckers. Lot more desperate people to prey on, and reality offering zero chance of a reliable pharmaceutical aid anytime soon.

Personally be pretty comfortable with tossing the lot of the bastards in jail (and yes, I'm aware those are basically plague pits right now), but that's not really on the table

[mko]

In other news - what's up with all these personae popping up on the media saying that the medical establishment is wrong about COVID, and it can't be solved with modern medicine but instead we have to use homeopathic methods?  What gets me about these isn't the concept that vitamins and "being healthy" can help your immune system.  What gets me is the tone of absolute authority these voices have.

Standard scammers, spammers and charlatans? Nothing new. Block, report and move on.

[Starver]

FOR SALE - Drug-free anti-COVID kit:

• 3M Facemask for your face
• 2m Electric Cattle Prod for anyone too close

(Collection only.)

[Iduno]

Healthcare quackery is old as sin.

In the US, we have given a megaphone to those twits. They are usually the same people who "Anti-vaxx for religious reasons", where "religious reasons" is 'Crystal healing woo.'


No. The virus is very well researched at this point. We know a lot about its morphology, many of its proteins, how its capsid is assembled, etc.... 

Social distancing and proper hygiene.  Do those things.  Dont listen to morons suggesting tonic water, there is no evidence that quinine in it has any effect whatsoever.

What, next you're going to tell us that huffing steam doesn't somehow make you immune to Corvid?

In other news - what's up with all these personae popping up on the media saying that the medical establishment is wrong about COVID, and it can't be solved with modern medicine but instead we have to use homeopathic methods?  What gets me about these isn't the concept that vitamins and "being healthy" can help your immune system.  What gets me is the tone of absolute authority these voices have.

Standard scammers, spammers and charlatans? Nothing new. Block, report and move on.

Somewhat more difficult IRL, where they reside.

[Teneb]

It's estimated that actual COVID cases in Brasil are 12x bigger than the official numbers. Yay.

[martinuzz]

The IMF warns that the world is about to see an economic crisis worse than the Great Depression in the 1930s.
Best case scenario, which assumes that the corona crisis will whittle down and 'normal' life is slowly resumed in the second half of 2020, the world economy will shrink with 3%.
In comparison, the 2008/2009 economic crisis 'only' shrunk the world economy by 0.1%

The IMF expects the economy to grow again in 2021, with 5.8%

8.2 trillion euros will be lost in worldwide GNP, which is about the combined GNP of Japan and Germany.
The IMF does add that these projections are 'extremely uncertain', and that if the crisis continues past the fist half of the year, economic damage will be another 3% in the 3d quarter of 2020, making it take longer for the economy to recover in 2021.

In other news, a Harvard studies suggests that, for as long as there is no vaccin, we will need to keep locking down our societies for weeks to months every 3-4 months until at least 2022 or maybe even 2024, or it will keep coming back as bad as it is now.
Extending our ICU capacities will decrease the number of subsequent lockdowns needed, from an expected 8 to 7.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/studie-harvard-elk-kwartaal-een-lockdown-om-virus-te-bedwingen~b8f6ec33/
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793
Ofcourse, if we do that, what our economies will end up to be will make the Great Depression look like a land of milk and honey.

Worst worst case scenario is when people who have had the virus lose immunity after some time, which is not unusual with many other respiratory virusses.  In that case we can expect a few yearly lockdowns for the rest of our lives, or until a medicine is found that makes the illness less severe, so less people end up on ICU.

[Starver]

8.2 trillion euros will be lost in worldwide GNP,

Check behind the sofa cushions?

[TamerVirus]

Do you know what's definitely an essential business during this pandemic? Pro Wrestling!