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[Reelya]

1200 cases per million as the ultimate amount of people who'd be infected in a non-lockdown end-state is ridiculously optimistic.

It doesn't pass the basic common sense test. If a disease going rampant only infected 1 in 1000 people then it wouldn't be spreading in the first place. You're only going to get an outcome like that if you prevent exposure using lockdowns.

Let's look at current trends and track 1 week ahead. The March 19th figure for USA infections was 13789, up from 221 on March 5th. The number of known infections jumped 48% in just the day between Mar 18-19. That really suggests this is the tip of the iceberg.

That's times-62 in 2 weeks. 2 weeks from now at that rate would by ... 860,000 total known infections. Sure, you can argue it "must" be about to taper off, but wasn't that what we were saying a week ago? Didn't happen.

[martinuzz]

If you look at China, with about 3000 deaths on a population of 1.4 billion, it makes zero sense to estimate 1.2 million people to die in the US, with a population of 327 million.
Ok ok, granted, the US healthcare system is way inferior to China's, at least it's accessability, but still.

[Reelya]

China has a low overall death rate because they aggressively contained it. They have basically zero community transmission now. So that argument doesn't make any sense. In Asia everyone goes around with a mask. In the west, virtually nobody wears a mask, because people think they look silly. This is one of things that will kill a lot more people.

the number of known US cases now is 10 times what it was a week ago, while it hasn't rise at all in China over the last week (80813 cases to 80897 cases, and most of the increase was people coming back from places like the USA). You just have to look at the graphs of China vs USA to see how silly the comparison is:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

My main prediction here is that next weekend, USA (and several other nations) will exceed the number of known cases in China.

[ChairmanPoo]

Spain's total case curve is also flattening, as is France, as is Germany. US is not, it looks to be constant-rate exponential still (looks linear on the log plot) but I suspect that is due to testing availability not actual infection rate. UK also looks constant-rate exponential, but I think again that is due to testing policy.

They are flattening because they have lockdowns.

Btw you should check the deaths.  Countries have different testing criteria depending among other things om availability. Deaths dont really change that much although they come with a delay because some people take a long time to die.  Their picture is probably more accurate


Now look where the UK and the US are headed in that regard.
If you dont do a lockdown *now* you're going to have it far worse than Italy and Spain.

[Il Palazzo]

Guyze, forget all that. Listen. It's important.
Who appears to be immune to the virus? Who doesn't have to go to school no more? Who is to bear the burden of increasingly elderly population? Who ignores social distancing? Who is cheerful despite the crisis?
Guyze. Connect the dots. We gotta kill them kids. It's all their doing.

[TD1]

Old people trying to kill young people?

I suspect I know who the successful demographic would be....

[Trekkin]

Guyze, forget all that. Listen. It's important.
Who appears to be immune to the virus? Who doesn't have to go to school no more? Who is to bear the burden of increasingly elderly population? Who ignores social distancing? Who is cheerful despite the crisis?
Guyze. Connect the dots. We gotta kill them kids. It's all their doing.

I am legitimately surprised, given this forum, that there isn't a general insistence on the part of the wingnuts that everyone go infect as many old people as possible in order to secure a political advantage through geriatricide.

[Iduno]

-snip-
That reads a lot like the government's intention was that as many people, especially poor people as possible would get sick and die.

This is a surprise to you?

Nope. I've been needing to put in effort to make sure I use a different wording every time I've said it this week.

Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)

Got an email from the district manager asking me why I quit.  He knows why I quit, he is the one that told my boss that if I quit I won't be eligible for rehire. I'm pretty sure he just wants me to say I quit in writing to cover his own ass

Also so they can fuck you on unemployment benefits.

Make sure to tell him you were told that you are gone because you were not able to stay home when you potentially have a deadly infectious disease. You aren't at fault, just keep reminding them that the reason behind this is them.

Odds are, if they realize what you can do to their reputation and possibly get them on legality, they'll pay the unemployment. Don't go back to work for them, or they will find excuses to punish you for "unrelated reasons."

Definitely something akin to what Akura recommends. Keep your paper trail right and kick up a fuss about it. If only to annoy your DM.

Also good advice/reasoning.

We didn't have anything in place for stuff like this.  The Great Filter is that as civilizations become more advanced they thin their margins further and further, optimizing for maximum efficiency, until black swans (or just known unknowns like this) cause catastrophic failures.

Also good time to remind that UBI is a trick.  Automation-based UBI is just a right-arm-to-left-arm blood transfusion meant to hide the collapse of profit that will follow large-scale automation.  Feed them  money so they can give it back to us so number go up and we can pretend we're not in a death spiral.

And this is just throwing people a bone because a multi-trillion stimulus package in the middle of a pandemic and impending mass unemployment has flared up class consciousness.  If they're want to give you something, it's because they know you could take much, much more.

It's a trick, and generally is intended to be a way to remove social safety nets to kill off more people in the name of profit.

[TamerVirus]

I am legitimately surprised, given this forum, that there isn't a general insistence on the part of the wingnuts that everyone go infect as many old people as possible in order to secure a political advantage through geriatricide.

The Great Toad One said that line of thinking wasn’t cool and to cut it out.

My state is pretty much now under a shelter in place order in all but name (100% nonessential workplace mandated to work from home)

[McTraveller]

1200 cases per million as the ultimate amount of people who'd be infected in a non-lockdown end-state is ridiculously optimistic.

That was my point - we (in the US) are somewhere between "no lockdown" and "we'll shoot you if you go outside" lockdown.  So why would we look at "no lockdown" projections?  Or is there an assumption that "volunteer lockdown" is the same as "no lockdown"?  I don't really buy that personally.

[ChairmanPoo]

1200 cases per million as the ultimate amount of people who'd be infected in a non-lockdown end-state is ridiculously optimistic.

That was my point - we (in the US) are somewhere between "no lockdown" and "we'll shoot you if you go outside" lockdown.  So why would we look at "no lockdown" projections?  Or is there an assumption that "volunteer lockdown" is the same as "no lockdown"?  I don't really buy that personally.

Well. You really should
https://youtu.be/UkH-5bUeObc

It doesnt work on a volunteer basis. In order for it to work it has to be enforced and tough. The Chinese advisory team told the Italians as much and told them to tighten their restrictions. In Spain we were alrrady tighter and they'll lilely tell us to tighten it further

[martinuzz]

I guess that's culture dependent.. Over here there is no enforced lockdown, but the vast majority of people voluntarily minimize going outside and social contacts.. Well except mothers with children in playgrounds, but that is because the government said it's still safe to let the children play outside.

[ChairmanPoo]

I guess that's culture dependent.. Over here there is no enforced lockdown, but the vast majority of people voluntarily minimize going outside and social contacts.. Well except mothers with children in playgrounds, but that is because the government said it's still safe to let the children play outside.

I hate to tell you this and I hope I'm wrong, but I think your goverment would serve you better by enforcing a harsh lockdown NOW than being too late. And really, even if I'm wrong and things *are* under control in the Netherlands, which I hope, it would be better to be safe than sorry.

I don't think cultural nuances are enough in this context. This shit is really good at spreading, and a few bad apples can ruin everybody's effort. And there are antisocial elements in every society.

We all thought it could be stopped by voluntary measures and people being hygienic. It's unfortunately failing in many places. The charts don't lie. Look at the trends and despair

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Really, thinking it's just about cultural nuances is waaay too optimistic. We thought we were doing things better than the italians, the italians doubtlessly thought they'd manage better than the Chinese, and the UK likely thought that they'd do better than Spain. It's a very disturbing pattern of overconfidence that is repeating over and over all over the western world.


I really really hope I'm wrong and that the Netherlands will stay clean for the foreseeable future. The less countries afflicted the lesser hit we'll all be, collectively

[martinuzz]

Well we are not staying clean. Hospitalization and deaths are still rising, but that's because we underestimated this thing for too long just like everyone else.
Since thursday a week ago, people are now seeing the seriousness of the situation and are self-quarantaining.
The effects of this will start to show in a few days, because of incubation times. Hopefully.

[Jopax]

Welp, due to further fuckups the maternity ward and all the personnel there are in quarantine for the time being, because apparently the asshole who brought it from italy and lied about it spread it to one of his pregnant employees and they didn't test her until after she gave birth (luckily the baby seems fine and healthy). Of course the dipshit is now claiming it's all a smear campaign and that he never was in italy...

In other news tho, after completely shutting down the workplace last two days ago, we're apparently continuing on Monday, still only two shifts tho and this time around we'll have to take care of our own food instead of using the cafeteria, which should be fucking fun considering limited fridge space and how generally dirty the whole place is, might just end up going hungry for most days :S

It's kind of eerie seeing how deserted the city is tho, what with non-essential stuff being closed and even stuff like grocery shops have limited work hours.