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Author Topic: Untamed Virus Containment Thread:COVID-19: Lurking Omni-Flu Edition  (Read 497925 times)

wierd

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1155 on: March 18, 2020, 02:38:12 am »

Why do you think I posted it bruh?

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Greiger

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1156 on: March 18, 2020, 02:58:36 am »

From what it sounds like they are going to attempt to transition to online classes.  Which might not be completely viable in all cases.  There is also the cases of low income families that may not be able to afford computers.  Sure smart phones are pretty darn common even among low income families (which I still find astounding)  but I wouldn't wish trying to do assignments on one of those on my worst enemy.

EDIT: Then if it's anything like my experience with the online only classes I took in college, the school may require people to purchase expensive software.  Like an art class requiring all their students to buy the newest version of photoshop, and requiring all assignments to be turned in in some format only that can do.  Or an english class that requires all homework to be submitted in whatever microsoft's new .DOC format equivalent is.  The excuse back then was that if we didn't want to invest money into our software we clearly were not serious about our studies.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 03:09:22 am by Greiger »
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coalboat

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1157 on: March 18, 2020, 03:16:28 am »

Maybe it's time to consider home schooling.
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Doomblade187

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1158 on: March 18, 2020, 03:45:44 am »

My little brother receives a school-provided laptop from his high school for classwork, and any software is typically provided by the school. In addition, most lower income schools (one of which he was going to when he got the laptop, and returned it when he switched schools) provide laptops to families. This, incidentally, artificially inflates spending per student - money goes to cover essentials, instead of enriching instruction.

Point is, US schools have some protocols in place to do remote learning already, though it will vary heavily by state. I don't expect it to go smoothly.
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Bralbaard

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1159 on: March 18, 2020, 04:43:52 am »

Just picked up the equipment from school for remote working for the kids. The school already works a lot with computers, including programs that work from the cloud, so this is will likely be manageable for them without major expenses. Also went by the store on my way back home. It appeared to be well-stocked, no empty shelves. No massive hoarding like I saw on sunday either. But then I ussually never find myself in a store on wednesday morning, guess flexibility in working hours is one of the advantages of having to work from home.

We have a good healtcare and insurance system in the Netherlands, but I'm still worried for what this will do for people with low income who will lose their jobs over this. Still we likely are in a better position than some of the countries out there. I really hope this virus will go away with higher temperatures, and that areas like africa will be unafected for similar reasons. So far the lower numbers from the southern hemisphere offer some hope, but cases in Australia and Brasil are rising now, which is worrying.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 05:40:24 am by Bralbaard »
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1160 on: March 18, 2020, 05:02:00 am »

So there are officially cpntingency plans to do warfare medicine like in Italy. If or when it comes, which at least in Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, it totally will, they'll start prioritizing some people over others.
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mko

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1161 on: March 18, 2020, 05:03:46 am »

We have a good healtcare and insurance system in the Netherlands, but I'm still worried for what this will do for people with low income who will lose their jobs over this. Still we likely are in a better position than some of the countries out there. I really hope this virus will go away with higher temperatures, and that areas like africa will be unafected for similar reasons. So far the lower numbers from the southern hemisphere over some hope, but cases in Australia and Brasil are rising now, which is worrying.
I would not expect too much from summer. Difference is tiny, if any. (would be happy to see data saying otherwise)

And so far low reported infection counts in say Africa seem to be clearly result of low testing rates, or treating it as not important issue (what in case of some countries may be sadly true).
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Bralbaard

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1162 on: March 18, 2020, 05:42:08 am »

Yeah, I wrote that I hoped warm weather would have an effect, but in the back of my mind I kind of already know the answer will be "no".
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martinuzz

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1163 on: March 18, 2020, 06:37:32 am »

This is Holland you're talking about. They don't have a profit-driven penal system, so that incentive doesn't exist. Furthermore, it's voluntary, since you can't be forced to work if you haven't been sentenced to labour.
You guys are really trying to find a hole in this.
This.

Our prisons are luxury hotels compared to US prisons and most certainly do not have any profit-driven incentive.

That, and less than 0.1% of our population is in prison (about 15000 prisoners on a population of 17.2 million), compared to 0,7% (2.3 million people) in the US.

Even if the majority of them choose to work, that's barely any competition for regular jobs on the outside.

Hello, I'd like to point out that there is a terrible lack of healthcare material right now. Those masks are specially needed, doubly so if somehow they are assembling HEPA masks.
They are not making HEPA masks yet, for lack of basic materials.

For now they are making cotton masks, and those will primarily be used to hand out to those in the prison population who show signs of flu / cold / corona.
They will be making HEPA masks for the hospitals once medical grade materials are available.
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TamerVirus

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1164 on: March 18, 2020, 06:46:08 am »

The mayor is telling folks to prepare to shelter in place but the governor is all ‘nah, that’s not in the cards’
Either way exponential growth is kicking in now.
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Frumple

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1165 on: March 18, 2020, 07:09:20 am »

Yeah, I wrote that I hoped warm weather would have an effect, but in the back of my mind I kind of already know the answer will be "no".
Actually, from what folks have pieced together from available data, warm weather does seem to have an effect. Iirc it's something like a third of a percent reduction in spread per infected (R number) per Celsius increase, and about a fifth of a percent per percent increase in relative humidity, going by information collected in china. So if humidity jacks up about 80% and/or the temperature spikes about 40 or so degrees C, and stays that way, you'd probably see a pretty significant reduction in the rate of transmission.

But, y'know, the R value for crow plague is somewhere over 2, so, uh. It's no silver bullet.

E: Source, incidentally. It's not necessarily super great data or 100% generalizable, but there's apparent suggestion warm and humid weather does have some degree of mitigation effect on transmission.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 07:15:48 am by Frumple »
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Naturegirl1999

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1166 on: March 18, 2020, 07:26:53 am »

I wonder why. Might it be that viruses are denatured due to the heat? Trapped in droplets so they can’t reach the cell?
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martinuzz

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1167 on: March 18, 2020, 07:29:49 am »

Denatured, not very likely. If the virus thrives in a fevered body, it can also thrive in outside temperatures in that range.More likely, less humidity. Microdroplets evaporating faster in warmer weather so travel distance for the virus decreases.
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Friendly and polite reminder for optimists: Hope is a finite resource

We can ­disagree and still love each other, ­unless your disagreement is rooted in my oppression and denial of my humanity and right to exist - James Baldwin

http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=73719.msg1830479#msg1830479

mko

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1168 on: March 18, 2020, 07:30:41 am »

E: Source, incidentally. It's not necessarily super great data or 100% generalizable, but there's apparent suggestion warm and humid weather does have some degree of mitigation effect on transmission.


Thanks for posting source! Sadly, it seems low quality - "Table 1 about here", there is no table.

And from looking at actually included images they assume that South Korea and Malaysia has the same case detection rate! Running linear regression on that and assuming that temperature/humidity causes all differences is not too helpful.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 07:33:07 am by mko »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: Coronavirus World Tour 2020
« Reply #1169 on: March 18, 2020, 07:31:06 am »

It would be bizarre and strongly support the bioweapon hypothesis if it wasn't affected by summer conditions at all - that's a universal quality of coronaviruses and is present in many other viruses as well. That happens when you're made of proteins. The real question is how strong the effect will end up being, especially since we seem to be headed for millions infected by that point.

What I'm wondering today is if China will get new infection sites, as it seems most of the population was never infected and thus whatever the immune period is should be irrelevant. The government proved its ability to respond and contain, but that doesn't help much if it requires an act of national economic suicide every time or in the face of the asymptomatic rate. I do not believe in the quarantined factory model for one second.
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