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[Reelya]

I still don't understand the extremity of emotion and response - if it's really this "everywhere" that tells me two things: the official cases are way lower than the actual cases, and by induction the overall severity is much less than people fear.  If you have that many "unknown" or "mild" cases - how can the probability of severity be at the high end of the estimates?

See Italy. The main fear is that within week or two many people at the same time will need medical attention, more than is available.

And if it's really this "everywhere", it does not mean that everyone is ill. But it soon may happen (OK, not everyone but say 50% of population).

Yep, this.

Say there's some threshold of infected people per capita for you to hear about it through "a friend of a friend knows someone who has it", then it'd be a while before the number of deaths per capita becomes common enough for you to hear about it after that point.

However, not everyone knows they're infected so the number of actual infected in your broad "rumor circle" is probably much higher. Additionally, infection to death takes about 3 weeks. Also, if someone dies, the rumor is likely to spread further than just news about an infection. So, if you're hearing friend-of-a-friend news about infections now, then that's the tip of the iceberg in about 3 weeks any currently-infected people who are going to die will start dying, and news about that should travel further.

Also note that the number of active infections doubles roughly every 5 days, so the bulk of infections is always new infections. This further leads death numbers to lag behind total infection numbers. So the actual death rate will change with time depending on what's happening - if it's rapidly spreading the death rate will appear to drop, but that's just because the infected haven't had time to die yet - it's like a disease Ponzi Scheme. Once the disease comes under control however, the number of deaths per known infection will "shoot up" since it's not longer buffered by the new "not dead yet" infectees.

[Iduno]

On another subject: is anybody here knowledgeable about filter standards? I´m considering acquiring some equipment myself, and I´d like some feedback. I´m considering something more serious than standard disposable hepa masks too.

A quick search says the Coronavirus is 0.1 microns, which is probably too small for most filters to be completely effective against. At that point, the paint filter masks or paper hospital masks are nearly as effective, because you're only really blocking whatever the virus is attached to (whatever people are coughing up). Also, once you get good enough filters that viruses stay out, it's also difficult to get air in, which has some negative side effects if you need oxygen to live.

Martinuzz, as I'm from Holland too, can you believe the response from our government?

The way I see it, they're botching it horribly.

- Almost no one is being tested anymore. There are not nearly enough testing materials. Wait, wasn´t that why people were bashing Trump?

That was mostly because he refused the tests that worked, and had someone develop an expensive test that is much less accurate. Last I heard, there was a possibility of waiting multiple weeks for results. Our not testing was intentional.

- Mitigation rules are soft too. Schools not closed, no enforcing, just advice to stay home "if you feel sick". Employers can still demand that you keep working if you have, say, a cough.

Not closing schools isn't the worst choice, as long as sick children stay home. The problem here is that the workers who will be forced to go to work sick are usually the ones who normally get treated badly: service workers. People who are handling food, talking to people, and are always around coworkers in a small area. I can't find any way in which that isn't terrible.

[ChairmanPoo]

A quick search says the Coronavirus is 0.1 microns, which is probably too small for most filters to be completely effective against. At that point, the paint filter masks or paper hospital masks are nearly as effective, because you're only really blocking whatever the virus is attached to (whatever people are coughing up). Also, once you get good enough filters that viruses stay out, it's also difficult to get air in, which has some negative side effects if you need oxygen to live.

FFP masks in theory are HEPA level and are able to clear  most viral particles. So it would be great... if I had one.
Right now the best choices on that regard would arrive by april. Which is better than nothing but will do nothing to mitigate the risk over the next few weeks.


I¨m very much sunk into FUD myself, and losing the grip. I can tell as much.

Not closing schools isn't the worst choice, as long as sick children stay home. The problem here is that the workers who will be forced to go to work sick are usually the ones who normally get treated badly: service workers. People who are handling food, talking to people, and are always around coworkers in a small area. I can't find any way in which that isn't terrible.

There might be asymptomatic carriers that spread the disease to each other and disperse it.


This is part of this virus conundrum and what makes it so dangerous. Anyone´s individual risk is low. But it spreads so much and so fast that there will be enough misserably sick people to bring your healthcare system to it´s knees.

And at that point it doesnt really matter if you have severe coronavirus disease or not. A burst appendix can kill you just as dead

[McTraveller]

Doctors in my region warned today that '50% of all corona patients that need ICU admission are below the age of 50. Do not believe that this virus is only dangerous to the elderly and sickly.'

Isn't this a "statistic that isn't false but doesn't really say anything" if we don't know how many people below the age of 50 that are infected need ICU?

It just seems alarmist.  I know the sentiment is trying to say "just because you're young doesn't mean you're invincible" but I guarantee people read that as "even if I'm under 50 I have a 50/50 chance of needing to go to the ICU" which is emphatically incorrect.

[SalmonGod]

PSA in case this info hasn't been shared here yet.

French authorities have warned that widely used over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs may worsen the coronavirus.

The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, who is a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.”

Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body’s immune system.

The health ministry added that patients should choose paracetamol – which is known in the US by the generic name acetaminophen and commonly by the brand name Tylenol – because “it will reduce the fever without counterattacking the inflammation”.

French patients have been forced to consult pharmacies since mid-January if they want to buy popular painkillers, including ibuprofen, paracetamol and aspirin, to be reminded of the risks.

Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse hospital, told RTL radio: “Anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection.”

[mko]

repeating in case someone missed previous post:

PSA in case this info hasn't been shared here yet.

French authorities have warned that widely used over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs may worsen the coronavirus.

The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, who is a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.”

Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body’s immune system.

The health ministry added that patients should choose paracetamol – which is known in the US by the generic name acetaminophen and commonly by the brand name Tylenol – because “it will reduce the fever without counterattacking the inflammation”.

French patients have been forced to consult pharmacies since mid-January if they want to buy popular painkillers, including ibuprofen, paracetamol and aspirin, to be reminded of the risks.

Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse hospital, told RTL radio: “Anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection.”

----

I guess we´ll find out.

Yes, I am really curious about what influenced this. I suspect cultural/travel influences (more travel of infected people between Italy and China), but genetic influence is also possible.

Still, I prefer to not bet that Italy was significant outlier. My father is in group with expected death rate of about 1% what is far too high for my taste, and I am perfectly willing to overreact rather than under react. And my gradfather and grandmother are in group with 10%+/20%+ death rate group.

[martinuzz]

Doctors in my region warned today that '50% of all corona patients that need ICU admission are below the age of 50. Do not believe that this virus is only dangerous to the elderly and sickly.'

Isn't this a "statistic that isn't false but doesn't really say anything" if we don't know how many people below the age of 50 that are infected need ICU?

An earlier estimate by doctors is that about 10% of infected need ICU treatment.

About 1/3d of our nations confirmed reported cases are in my region (north brabant). With a national total of 1135 that would be say about 375 cases, of which about 10% need hospitalization. So there'd be about 38 people in hospital in my region of whom 19 are under the age of 50.

[coalboat]

The mortality is high in Wuhan, but very low in other parts of China.

The mortality is high in Italy, but low in other European countries.

I think there's pattern here, about the high mortality in the place where it first begins to spread in a certain region.

[IcyTea31]

PSA in case this info hasn't been shared here yet.

This is good advice, and applies for milder diseases as well. Fever is one of the ways your body fights against an infection, so think twice about taking medicine to lower the heat if it's not truly unbearable. Symptom-reducing medicines are so you can feel better and keep some degree of productivity while sick; they don't actually speed up recovery in most cases. (At least physiologically; some studies say that "feeling better" does help, but psychosomatic effects are too person-specific to give general advice about.)

[scriver]

repeating in case someone missed previous post:

PSA in case this info hasn't been shared here yet.

French authorities have warned that widely used over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs may worsen the coronavirus.

The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, who is a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.”

Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body’s immune system.

The health ministry added that patients should choose paracetamol – which is known in the US by the generic name acetaminophen and commonly by the brand name Tylenol – because “it will reduce the fever without counterattacking the inflammation”.

French patients have been forced to consult pharmacies since mid-January if they want to buy popular painkillers, including ibuprofen, paracetamol and aspirin, to be reminded of the risks.

Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse hospital, told RTL radio: “Anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection.”

Is this not supposed to be it's opposite?

[martinuzz]

In a press conference today, it has been decided that we are also going to close down our nurseries, daycare centres, primary schools, highschools, gyms, saunas, restaurants, bars, pubs, sex workers and coffeeshops, until april 6th.

Hotels remain open, but they do have to close their dining areaes and hotel bars.
Nurseries and daycare centres will remain partially open, but only for those children whose parents work in 'essential jobs', like emergency services, healthcare, supermarket supply chains, power generation or fuel transport.
Parents in non essential jobs are expected to stay home from work to look after the kids.
Courthouses have also shut down.
Civil lawsuits and criminal cases will be postponed. Only those cases that need to be served because of legal max terms will still take place.

[Il Palazzo]

No, not the women of ill repute! Oh, humanity!

[Rolan7]

I'll have you know they have an ironically healthy repute!  Alas, woe

[TamerVirus]

They have to practice safe social distancing!

[ChairmanPoo]

repeating in case someone missed previous post:

PSA in case this info hasn't been shared here yet.

French authorities have warned that widely used over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs may worsen the coronavirus.

The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, who is a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.”

Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body’s immune system.

The health ministry added that patients should choose paracetamol – which is known in the US by the generic name acetaminophen and commonly by the brand name Tylenol – because “it will reduce the fever without counterattacking the inflammation”.

French patients have been forced to consult pharmacies since mid-January if they want to buy popular painkillers, including ibuprofen, paracetamol and aspirin, to be reminded of the risks.

Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse hospital, told RTL radio: “Anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection.”

Is this not supposed to be it's opposite?

There is a lot of lack of knowledge about all this, and a lot of FUD, but paracetamol does indeed reduce fever without antiinflamatory effects.

The advice itself is based on some number of young patients in France whose only factor in common was popping ibuprofen 600.

Whether taht´s the cause or not... who knows. I dont know. I think if I got it I´d probably go for paracetamol and weather the pain, until something to the contrary comes up