Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Greiger]

Best friend has a father in some kind of long term critical care hospital(edit: a rehab hospital), supposedly his father is on his last legs from something unrelated and likely won't last til next month.  Theyw were discussing moving him to a nursing home or a hospice and were considering it.  Now he and the rest of the family are no longer allowed to visit, (Edit: They also can't call because his treatment prevents speech) they can only come to pick him up when he's released, which he likely won't be. 

I understand why they are doing it but think they should make an exception with supervised visits due to the circumstances.  Friend and his family are absolutely livid and planning to sue.

[mko]

If people are saying it's been here since January then there's a chance I actually had it in December.

Like I've said elsewhere, sickest I've been in 20 years. Started with a fever, and some what of a cough, then progressed to a sore throat, painfully aching chest during normal non-coughing periods, loss of my voice and basically choking on my own phlegm. I've had pneumonia as a kid, I remember it well. It wasn't pneumonia for sure, and when I went to the doctor and was tested, they said it WASN'T the Influenza that was ravaging town at the time. They never said what it was. I was down for two weeks and another two weeks to recover. My voice came back in full about 8 weeks after I lost it. I was around plenty of people and none of them got super sick but I dunno. I was pretty spooked at all the symptoms and how long it went on for. I didn't think I was dying at any point and I didn't have the kind of respiratory distress that's reported, but I'm a smoker and I definitely felt like I was paying the price for it. Sometimes I'd cough my brains out just to try to get the crud out of my lungs so I could breathe better but the stuff was like, crazy thick and wouldn't come out.

I doubt there's any way I could verify if what I had was Covid or not. But there's no way in hell I want to be even remotely that sick again. Everyone joked with me that I should have gotten a flu shot, but it wouldn't have done anything against what I had.

Covid19 is supposed to be dry cough, without phlegm, right?

Best friend has a father in some kind of long term critical care hospital(edit: a rehab hospital) (...) I understand why they are doing it but think they should make an exception with supervised visits due to the circumstances.  Friend and his family are absolutely livid and planning to sue.

Given vulnerable patients it makes sense, though I understand that they are angry.

[Bralbaard]

If people are saying it's been here since January then there's a chance I actually had it in December.

Like I've said elsewhere, sickest I've been in 20 years. Started with a fever, and some what of a cough, then progressed to a sore throat, painfully aching chest during normal non-coughing periods, loss of my voice and basically choking on my own phlegm. I've had pneumonia as a kid, I remember it well. It wasn't pneumonia for sure, and when I went to the doctor and was tested, they said it WASN'T the Influenza that was ravaging town at the time. They never said what it was. I was down for two weeks and another two weeks to recover. My voice came back in full about 8 weeks after I lost it. I was around plenty of people and none of them got super sick but I dunno. I was pretty spooked at all the symptoms and how long it went on for. I didn't think I was dying at any point and I didn't have the kind of respiratory distress that's reported, but I'm a smoker and I definitely felt like I was paying the price for it. Sometimes I'd cough my brains out just to try to get the crud out of my lungs so I could breathe better but the stuff was like, crazy thick and wouldn't come out.

I doubt there's any way I could verify if what I had was Covid or not. But there's no way in hell I want to be even remotely that sick again. Everyone joked with me that I should have gotten a flu shot, but it wouldn't have done anything against what I had.

If that was in december there is no way it could be Covid-19.  Had it been, then it would have been completely out of control in the area where you live right now, look at Iran and Italy for what the situation would be. (just looking at where I live and how fast it spreads here from cases that can be traced, it is clear that such a situation could be reached in weeks, not months)

[Greiger]

Maybe I'm not understanding completely how the virus spreads but would it not be possible to allow a supervised visit to a patient?  I've been in parts of that building before and it seems like patients have their own room.  I would assume escorting the visitors to the patient then escorting them out would minimise the risk of spread in the building. 

While I don't know the whole story my understanding is that they need to visit to determine whether he wants to remain there or be moved to a home or something.  If they didn't know about the virus thing an outside observer who knows nothing of whats going on could potentially think it looks like they are holding him without visitors to intentionally rack up the bill.

[ChairmanPoo]

They might allow ONE visitor for hunanitarian reasons. But no escorting you wont halt the virus spread per se. Fastidious hygiene and social isolation will.

And this isnt the time for exceptions. Their visit can spread the disease to him, or viceversa.

[mko]

Virus can spread also during a supervised visit. See https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html

The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

    Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
    Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.

These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

And this isnt the time for exceptions. Their visit can spread the disease to him, or viceversa.

And to other extremely vulnerable patients.

[Reelya]

The idea of being guided in and out also sounds like a vector. That person presumably deals with a lot of patients directly.

[Imic]

I can always count on this thread to fiercly reinvigorate my anxiety whenever it calms down. I think I’m going to stop reading this.

[IcyTea31]

Situation in Finland: 155 confirmed infected, no deaths.

Government has recommended against (not banned) gatherings of over 500 people, and is considering putting the preparedness law (a sort of martial law lite) in effect.

My university has banned using campus grounds for gatherings of over 30 people, and recommends that people in cafeteria lines stand at least 1 meter apart from each other.

My father sent me a message to go buy food and other supplies for 2 weeks in case I have to quarantine myself. I'm probably strong and healthy enough to survive the disease even without medical care, so preventing the spread of infection is first priority if I get it.

The level of panic feels quite high, making me wonder why past epidemics haven't incited it. From what I've understood of the virus, it's not particularly "special" when comparing the numbers to those of past epidemics and pandemics. It's new and has spread wide, but I'm confident that a vaccine will come soon enough and life will return to normal. The deaths it has caused so far are a tragedy, but this virus is not the end of humanity.

[ChairmanPoo]

Its not the virus lethality in itself. Its how fast it spreads. Most people will be OK. Even most octogenarians, it seems. Problem is, if you have 10000 cases and 5-10 require serious intervention and they all happen in a couple od months, you risk healthcare collapse.

Thats what happened in Italy

[Reelya]

Which epidemics are you comparing it to? SARS and MERS for example are the ones that come to mind, but you need to take a good look at the raw numbers for those. Yes, they killed a higher percentage of those who caught it, but, no, they didn't actually spread very much at all.

https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-scientists-do-and-don-t-know-about-wuhan-coronavirus-so-far
SARS infected just over 8000, with around 800 deaths. MERS infected 2500, also with around 800 deaths. This new thing spreads much more easily, and already tops both of those for deaths combined. Disease which kill you spectacularly and quickly tend to burn out quickly too, because people know to stay away. Diseases which linger and have more "carriers" who might not be aware they even have it can end up killing a lot more people.

That's how come the flu kills so many people, despite only killing 1/1000 of the sufferers. This thing spreads as well or faster than flu and also has probably about 10 times the fatality rate. So, it's like a super-flu, and flu is one of the biggest killing diseases in all of history.

To jump now, and compare it to other "flu epidemics", first consider "swine flu".
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-h1n1-pandemic/swine-flu-infected-1-in-5-death-rate-low-study-shows-idUSBRE90O0T720130125
As bad as covid-19? Nope. Swine flu had a death rate of only 0.02%. Sure, it infected a ton of people, but it only killed about 1 in 5000. Less than season flu, even. It was obviously a misplaced panic.

There's also H5N1 "bird flu" that was noted in the news. But, note, it only spread from birds to humans, with pretty much zero human-to-human spread. It killed 115 people, and stopped once we immunized or slaughtered a bunch of chickens and stuff to stop it.

So, none of the major outbreaks of the last 20 years is anything like this one.

[mko]

From what I've understood of the virus, it's not particularly "special" when comparing the numbers to those of past epidemics and pandemics.

Which ones you are comparing?

but this virus is not the end of humanity.

Certainly.

[feelotraveller]

Going back somewhat further in history the obvious comparison is Spanish flu.  Chances are that Covid19 won't be as severe, but part of that decision is down the the mutation (faux-)RNG.

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228841

[IcyTea31]

My primary point of comparison was seasonal flu. Hundreds of millions of infections, millions of hospitalizations and hundreds of thousands of deaths every year worldwide. We take the virus apart, create the vaccine, distribute it, weep for the lost, and get ready for next year. This is a routine, not a reason for panic.

Slowing the spread of infection is important, but far more has been done to do so for COVID-19 than for any other disease in recent history. I'm not saying we should do less; I'm asking why we didn't do more for the others.

[Iduno]

My office sent me a weird denialist message along the lines of "the virus is only proven to spread in groups, and since our interactions with customers are one-to-one we can keep working safely". It's like someone took the Christian abstinence propaganda I was fed in high school and put it through a wheat thresher.

Oh, we've been told that the customers are still coming in, so we'll serve them. At least here, they don't pretend to care if we live or die.

So since there are probably 10-20x as many total cases as ones that have been confirmed (confirmed cases lag actual by quite a lot) - does that mean it's better or worse than people are saying?

I can't tell, because most of the media seems to think the unconfirmed cases will all be at the same rates as the confirmed ones in terms of ICU need, etc.  Everything I've seen only seems to focus on the effect of health care availability, and how slowing down the spread improves that.  But I haven't seen anything (other than the non-rigorous financial markets) evaluate the mid-term impact of shutting everything down to impose social distancing.

Note this is kind of an academic question - and not "in a perfect world" kind of stuff, or blaming economic or cultural systems, just a question of "how would you be able to mitigate the next pandemic also with minimal economic impact".  Because is it really worth a global recession to stop a pandemic?  Is there a way to stop a pandemic without a recession?  What would it take?

For instance, could you have rules that state all hospitals must have a minimum X% reserve of protective gear and beds?  Could you have a "strategic wage reserve" in case you have to quarantine everyone for a month?

Again, this is a "what can we do next time" question, not a "damn we didn't have this already who can we blame" question.

Full Madagascar. Close down airports, seaports, people driving in, whatever.  And don't make exceptions for rich people. Having some sort of Health Organization the whole World listens to might help as well. It will cause an economic slowdown, but less so than panic or lots people dying, let alone both. Probably should also test people who are sick, instead of assuming it will be fine, just in case.

I have to say, watching the counter creep up every time I refresh that current infections for US thing is morbidly fascinating. Infections are up > 30% since the day before and there's still 6.5 hours until it's midnight in the Western states. Tracking for a 35-40% daily increase in number of infections again.

I'm guessing it'll hit 8000-10000 by next weekend since the rates aren't actually slowing down. And then, that's uncharted territory. There's no other country with that many infections that isn't on some sort of severe lockdown. Will the US feds quibble about what to do for the next 3 weeks and you'll be approaching 50,000 detected cases? This emphasis on the stock market is a foolish waste of time.

EDIT: To put this in perspective, Iran was at the same number of detected cases around March 2, 9 days ago, and Italy was at the same number of detected cases on March 2. That suggests you got 9 days before the USA outbreak catches up to where those nations are now, 12-15K infections. Assuming you got the testing ramped up in time.

A more suspicious person would wonder aloud why the president appears to be trying to get a disease to spread running up to presidential elections. Especially while rallies and caucuses are being held by the other team.

The wife of Canada's prime minister Trudeau has been tested positive for corona.
Justin Trudeau himself does not show signs of illness yet but will be placed in 14 day quarantine.

Huh. Does black facepaint prevent transmission of the disease?