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[Doomblade187]

Remember that it is acceptable to wipe down most phones with hand sani/high proof alcohol.

[TamerVirus]

Allergies to red meat are actually real and are caused by bites from the Lone Star tick
Alpha-gal syndrome

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Allergies to meat are real, but allergies to meat as claimed by an anti-vaxxer is an entirely different story.

[Ziusudra]

Remember that it is acceptable to wipe down most phones with hand sani/high proof alcohol.

Bleach, vinegar, alcohol, and most harsh disinfectant chemicals can clean the sides and back of an Android phone or iPhone, but those chemicals need to stay far away from the glass front of your phone (and glass back if you have one), as they will eat away at the oleophobic coating that your phone uses to help fight fingerprint smudges.

https://www.androidcentral.com/how-clean-and-disinfect-your-android-smartphone

[Doomblade187]

Oh, cool.

So that's why my phone is all smudged. :3

[Max™]

Phones and money are both horrorshows when you light them up in the right wavelengths, avoid cross-pollination from either if you can right now.

Allergies to meat are real, but allergies to meat as claimed by an anti-vaxxer is an entirely different story.

Plus, red meat avoidance =/= full blown veganism, so it feels like someone embarrassed about how cruel forcing veganism on children really is and trying to justify it by claiming a general "meat allergy" to me. Were it not for the obvious ignorance on display as an antivax shithead I may not jump to that conclusion, but as it stands, no, I'm not prepared to give any benefit of any doubt to anybody doing that to kids.

[Reelya]

USA's Coronavirus daily reporting:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The rate of growth is about 1.33 per day averaged over the last 8 days, or 1.25 per day averaged over the last 20 days. Somewhere in the middle of that works out as roughly the number of cases increasing by a factor of 10 every 10 days. At the existing rate, 3 weeks from now the USA would have 100,000 cases. Expect things to get fucked over in the USA real soon either one way or another.

People fail to take into account exponential growth. Number of reported cases currently doubling every 2.5 days. Hopefully that's more of an artifact of delayed testing than rapid spread, however time will tell if the growth rate of cases slows soon or not.

[scriver]

For clarification, does 1.30 means a growth of 30% a day or 130% a day?

[ZBridges]

I don't suppose it's possible that some of the increase in cases could be due to recently expanded testing?

[Max™]

Considering how slowly we've been getting tests rolled out, the unsettling number of obvious community spread cases being found, and the current number being 1,010 we can look at it optimistically and say that is actually the right number.

Next week we shouldn't be surprised to see 10,100.
The week after it might be over 100k.

Unfortunately there is no way that 1,010 number is accurate, and since we've been totally ignoring it officially we have no way of knowing just how badly an underestimate it is, between asymptomatic carriers, incubation periods, and simple inability to get enough tests out to enough locations... your worst case guess is as good as literally anybody else's would be.

[Reelya]

For clarification, does 1.30 means a growth of 30% a day or 130% a day?

It means exponential increase with a base of 1.3. So tomorrow's result would be 1.3 times today's result. Take 1.3ⁿ and that's the multiple n-days ahead.

I don't suppose it's possible that some of the increase in cases could be due to recently expanded testing?

Sure, but I'm not trying to unravel that. This is just the current projection on confirmed cases unless they start to exhaust the pool of people who need testing but aren't getting it. At rates for the last 8 days that's actually a 1.33 multiple per day. the lower 1.25 is for the last 20 days. So, assuming 1.25 per day increase is already making concessions the the rate should drop off from the 1.33 rate at the moment. It might not drop off at all, maybe it will continue to accelerate. After all, there was a 1.4 times increase in the most recent day.

So, assuming a 1.25 factor increase for confirmed cases per day for the near future is actually a reasonable guess, and may even understate the increase in the next week or so.

[Max™]

Also remember some of the infectiousness estimates on COVID-19 were leaning towards it being like 2.4 or something, a good deal higher than 1.3 or so, which already is scary enough when your country isn't using the "fingers-in-ears, hum loudly til it goes away" method of containment and prevention.

Unless I'm mistaking what the 1.3 number was, which is possible, refreshing various pages and popping in and out.

[Reelya]

Actually, that's a different thing.

The 1.3 is just the rate at which new infections are discovered, per day.

The 2.4 is the number of new people who will be infected by a currently infected person across the span of their infection. How that relates to the rate of infection per day depends on the average time between getting the disease and passing it on. So, it could be a lot or a little, depending on the average "generation time" of one infection to the next.

So, if you have 1 person and the average generation time is 1-2 weeks, 10 days, then every 10 days the number of "active" infections would be times 2.4. That means the rate of spread every 30 days would be 13 times greater. So, in 90 days a single spreader will have created 2641 active spreaders. And that doesn't count the intermediate people, just the current crop.

You can then use a formula, "partial sum of a geometric series" to give you the answer of the total number of infected. From (1 - 2.4ⁿ)/(1-2.4), then after 90 days an unchecked single spreader would have created 4528 victims: 1886 no longer infectious ones along with the 2641 currently infectious victims.

So we can now work out what that would imply for the "daily spreading rate". 4528^(1/90). That would be very close to a 1.1 daily increase. Or roughly weekly doubling. So what might be happening is the actual infection rate is doubling every week, but the confirmed cases are playing catch-up with that, so they're increasing much faster.

[Bumber]

the "fingers-in-ears, hum loudly til it goes away" method of containment and prevention.

Is that better or worse than the "lick your finger, turn the page" method?

[Max™]

Thanks for clearing that up Reeldawg, I have no clue where the discussion I saw that on was because it was through a twitter thread and I'm lurk-only since I refuse to even let it try to offer a sign-in, block all that shit, unfortunately ublock hasn't worked when I try to select the COVID-19 element in the page source.

the "fingers-in-ears, hum loudly til it goes away" method of containment and prevention.

Is that better or worse than the "lick your finger, turn the page" method?

Who uses those internets made out of trees anymore though?