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[McTraveller]

Interesting observation for dataphiles, based on my states data. I recently noticed something interesting.  For instance, on Aug 1, they reported total cumulative cases as 82,356.  But today in the database, the total cumulative count associated with Aug 1 is 85,985. They update the data so that Aug 1 has the number of all cases that first had symptoms or if that date isn't available, had a sample date of Aug 1.

This means the headline number is not new people who have gotten sick today; it is just a number of how many positive test results came in today - regardless of when the test was administered.  It means this number lags actual infection rate by several days.

This made yesterday look terrible in the headline number - it was 1121 higher than the day before.  But now, even after just 1 day, Aug 13 is now showing as only 133 higher than Aug 12, not 1121.  Even though the total confirmed case count for Aug 13 is reported higher than its headline number yesterday.

NOTE: this is not an observation about the headline counts - it's just an observation about how you can't use the headline number to look at trends. You have to look at the actual data behind those headline numbers...

[Reelya]

I heard someone on another site mention a thing where in the Philippines two people who didn't have Covid were recorded as having Covid by the hospital. If you want the smoking gun that it's all fake, that's obviously it, right?

Yeah except it's sort of evidence against it being a thing.

First, if there was statistical evidence we'd be hearing that and not specific anecdotes. Just having exceptionally weak evidence being spread is itself evidence that there's no better evidence in existence, because that's what went viral, and it wouldn't have if they had anything better.

Second, every nurse and doctor in the country would have to be in on the ruse, since they way they prove they didn't have Covid is in fact the Covid tests, so they'd have to be labeling people as Covid-positive and faking the test results but somehow forgot to fake the test results for these specific people. The roughly 150,000 medical workers in the Philippines would have to be in on the ruse, along with millions more worldwide.

Thirdly, the whole story boils down to the fact that two nurses ticked the wrong boxes on a couple of forms. Medical fuck-ups are pretty common, people make mistakes. It would be some sort of miracle if every form ever got filled in perfectly, but this is what this exact conspiracy theory is based on: an anecdote about a couple of forms that go filled out incorrectly by overworked nurses, and this is left hanging as if it provides proof of a global conspiracy. If there weren't occasional fuck-ups with paperwork then that would be weird, you actually have to show it's somehow correlated with Covid-specific stuff. Hospitals do this stuff all the time.

[Eschar]

So it's like our little miracle-claim discussion a bit ago,.but with non-supernatural conspirators.

[scriver]

Remember when this all began, when China moved from clinical diagnosis (as in confirmed by tests in a lab, dont know if I'm using the term right or got it the wrong way) to symptomatic diagnosis (as in going by the symptoms a person has when seeking help)? Going by the symptoms is always going to be a less secure diagnosis, particularly for such a... I don't know how to say it in English, but for a disease that is so much like other illnesses of cold and pneumatic in expression as corona. So you're going to get more than a few false cases that way.

I don't think it matters much as far as misdiagnosises goes. I'm not sure if they've found any functional medicine yet so as far as I know if go in with a bad cold and get diagnosed with the crow plague the treatment ought to be the same anyway, go home, rest, drink water, and let the body do what it can. It's not like they just chuck you into intensive care or some other dangerous treatment as soon as you get diagnosed.

[ChairmanPoo]

When pandemics flare past a certain point you start to lose cases to measurement due to the limits of testing, tracing and diagnosing capabilities... I was warned about this early on by an epidemiologist friend of mine.

Always remember Comrade Dylatov

[Iduno]

It's wild seeing how the US is faring compared to the civilized world. I'm seeing businesses who could have handled ~3 months of a shutdown needing to close permanently because things are still getting worse instead of better. Hopefully the people who were shouting about reopening quickly to preserve the economy will be remembered for their short-sightedness ruining the economy instead. Jobs won't be coming back here, and the only businesses I've seen prosper are in automation or prison slave labor.

[ChairmanPoo]

It's wild seeing how the US is faring compared to the civilized world. I'm seeing businesses who could have handled ~3 months of a shutdown needing to close permanently because things are still getting worse instead of better. Hopefully the people who were shouting about reopening quickly to preserve the economy will be remembered for their short-sightedness ruining the economy instead. Jobs won't be coming back here, and the only businesses I've seen prosper are in automation or prison slave labor.

QTF. Its annoying how people dont realize the best way to save the economy is to stop this mess. And that we wont have a normal economy while the pandemic rages

[Maximum Spin]

It varies by region, though, which is why it will never become a simple answer like "reopening ruined the economy!"
Instead, some parts of the country are doing fine while others are... less.

[ChairmanPoo]

🤦‍♂️

No. It doesnt vary by region. The virus is there and as soon as you reopen it starts to spread. And the cost offsets any transient benefit

[Maximum Spin]

No. It doesnt vary by region. The virus is there and as soon as you reopen it starts to spread. And the cost offsets any transient benefit

I can promise you it does. The US is very big and, statistically, there are parts of it with no ongoing cases. Not "no known cases", but no cases. The virus is not slathered evenly across the country like peanut butter; it follows the existing social networks. Some places really are that isolated.

Interestingly, the evidence is that the 1918 flu epidemic mostly reached those places through the mail system, which, at the time, involved a lot more face-to-face contact, apparently.

[Starver]

Interestingly, the evidence is that the 1918 flu epidemic mostly reached those places through the mail system, which, at the time, involved a lot more face-to-face contact, apparently.

Sooo... Defunding the USPS is just a masterstoke effort in slowing viral spread then...

/AmeriPol

[Maximum Spin]

Interestingly, the evidence is that the 1918 flu epidemic mostly reached those places through the mail system, which, at the time, involved a lot more face-to-face contact, apparently.

Sooo... Defunding the USPS is just a masterstoke effort in slowing viral spread then...

/AmeriPol

(Back when it first started I DID consider that shutting down the USPS might be a good idea, but I don't think the numbers work out anymore: people just don't chat with their postmen.)

[Frumple]

No. It doesnt vary by region. The virus is there and as soon as you reopen it starts to spread. And the cost offsets any transient benefit

I can promise you it does. The US is very big and, statistically, there are parts of it with no ongoing cases. Not "no known cases", but no cases.

I mean, I just checked. It's theoretically possible -- near as I can parse from the data the CDC seems to be using, exactly 23 out of 3144 counties in the US have no confirmed cases to date reported. That gives you about a 0.7% chance of being correct if you can trust the competence of U.S. plague data collection.

It also means chaircritter is roughly 99.3% more correct than incorrect, at a minimum. Personally, I'd be assuming the sub-one-percent of the country without confirmed cases just hasn't found their infected yet. Pretty good odds you'd be right :V

[Maximum Spin]

I mean, I just checked. It's theoretically possible -- near as I can parse from the data the CDC seems to be using, exactly 23 out of 3144 counties in the US have no confirmed cases to date reported. That gives you about a 0.7% chance of being correct if you can trust the competence of U.S. plague data collection.

It also means chaircritter is roughly 99.3% more correct than incorrect, at a minimum. Personally, I'd be assuming the sub-one-percent of the country without confirmed cases just hasn't found their infected yet. Pretty good odds you'd be right :V

I'm talking about subcounty areas, to be clear. Counties are pretty big!