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[TamerVirus]

Look, 45% of people in the US admit they believe in ghosts

WHAT IF THE CORONAVIRUS CAME FROM GHOSTS?!?!?

[ChairmanPoo]

[Doomblade187]

You good, chairman?

[ChairmanPoo]

Yes, I screwed up a link, I posted it elsewhere for better effect

[bloop_bleep]

I, for one, think it's good at least that a significant portion of the population is willing to question authority and official reporting in this case, instead of blindly swallowing the government line, whether or not their beliefs are actually correct.

People who say it's completely preposterous for Bush to possibly want to blow up the Twin Towers probably don't know that Operation Northwoods existed.

[Ziusudra]

Except they're only doing so because they've been manipulated into it by those that seek - and feed on - chaos.

[feelotraveller]

Look, 45% of people in the US admit they believe in ghosts, and they're all dumb as hell. 32% here is nothing.

Wait, where are you from?

[misko27]

On related topic, Illinois has noted a, quote, "significant" increase in calls to poison control in last two days.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

The thing is, it's more rational to believe in a withheld vaccine than it is to believe in ghosts, since not only do ghosts not exist but pharmaceutical companies have frequently examined a "sick forever" business model because capitalism is an utter nightmare. So the fact that more people think ghosts exist is actually a pretty bad sign itself.

That said, the number of rich and powerful people with covid disproves it pretty easily.

[Jimmy]

I'm pretty sure anyone from the healthcare field recognizes this effect.

Take an elderly man with poor health literacy. Add a stressful situation. Try to give him information about healthcare facts. Watch as those facts get mixed up inside his head and come back out in completely the wrong way.

UV light and disinfectant can be used to sterilize contaminated surfaces. Unfortunately, this old man confused that with using them in infected patients. Not a big deal when you're able to just correct the old man's misunderstanding. Very hard when the old man happens to have a pulpit to share his poorly understood information without any filters to a bunch of other stressed people with poor health literacy.

[Starver]

The factoid is close to true, but, at the end of the day, it is too much of a guesstimate/generalization to be declared a fact. While we don’t know exactly how many died from Malaria throughout history, we can safely say, “Malaria could have potentially killed nearly to half the people who ever lived, predominantly children”.

I hate the word "guesstimate" so much that I'm quoting you quoting something that used it just to state this.

It's a meaningless portmanteau that adds no understanding.  Grrrr...

[ChairmanPoo]

I'm pretty sure anyone from the healthcare field recognizes this effect.

Take an elderly man with poor health literacy. Add a stressful situation. Try to give him information about healthcare facts. Watch as those facts get mixed up inside his head and come back out in completely the wrong way.

UV light and disinfectant can be used to sterilize contaminated surfaces. Unfortunately, this old man confused that with using them in infected patients. Not a big deal when you're able to just correct the old man's misunderstanding. Very hard when the old man happens to have a pulpit to share his poorly understood information without any filters to a bunch of other stressed people with poor health literacy.

Are you insinuating that inserting an UV light in your anus doesn't prevent or cure covid19?

[Frumple]

I hate the word "guesstimate" so much that I'm quoting you quoting something that used it just to state this.

It's a meaningless portmanteau that adds no understanding.  Grrrr...

Eh? Indicating an estimate is based on a guess rather than something more considered does add meaning, though. Or however you'd formulate the other way around. It's a guess on a subject you'd estimate on had you better data. Guess is less precise, because guess involves more than the numbery stuff estimates tend to involve. Estimate is less precise, because it can imply a more solid data based conjecture than you're working with. Guesstimate hits a midpoint between the two, giving the other folks involved a more solid understanding of what you're doing, with less room for confusion. I.e. it adds understanding

... also autocorrupt recognizes it as a word. Friggin' thing didn't know a single vulgarity before I started adding stuff to it, but it knew guesstimate.

[Starver]

That sounds like they're worried that people who have recovered might still be carriers for a time, and then start spreading it again.

So, with the prospect of limited duration immunity, could end up in a sort of SEICRS model?
(Susceptible->Exposed->Infective(<->Carrier)->Recovered->Susceptible...  With Carrier being 'recovered' but not officially Recovered state.)
(Post-Posting edit: Ok, next post took things back away from that full model.)


(PPE: Estimates are all based on guesses, but have a degree of reason behind them beyond them,  and all but the most unqualified pulled-from-your-butt 'guesses' include a tangible amount of reasoned estimation already. Can you guesstimate me the amount of reason it needs to turn a Wild-Ass-Guess into a guesstimate and the additional amount of reason it needs to become an official estimate? WAG->Guess->Estimate(->Precised Calculation) has no meaningful spot on the spectrum to insert "->Guestimate->" that won't sit well within some people's idea of a guess or well within other people's idea of an estimate. Thus it is at best meaningless, and at worst utterly misleading. That's all I need to say about it, and now return you to your regularly-scheduled programme. Or program.)

[Reelya]

Interesting thing: the word guesstimate was first coined by statisticians.

My personal understanding of when it would be appropriate is when you have a formula for something, and there are some unknowns, but some of the inputs are guesses. So you guess as to the factors, and then do the calculations, then that's your guesstimate. The reason they coined the term would have been that in statistician terms "estimate" means an output that you gained by putting in measurements for the unknowns, not guesses. The need for a new term was because "estimate" means a specific thing when your doing stats. A guess is something you pluck out of the air, an estimate is something you take measurements for and plug them into an equation, and a guesstimate is something where you don't have data for some of the measurements, so you plug in guesses for those.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guesstimate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimation

"using the value of a statistic derived from a sample to estimate the value of a corresponding population parameter".

So if you don't actualy have the sample data to plug into the equation, you're not actually producing a proper estimate. Even so, you may be required to given an estimation, so you plug in some reasonable-sounding guess. Hence, a guesstimate instead of a proper estimate. Yeah, so the term shouldn't be thrown around randomly, but it does have a specific and concrete meaning in that field, because estimate has a narrower definition when working in that field, so this term ended up getting split out.