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[Frumple]

It depends on many factors. In the US, I wonder if the lack of health insurance could drive people to refrain from requesting treatment until it is too late?

It's not just that -- in a lot of places we're still basically not fucking testing, so you functionally can't "request treatment" until it's too late. Given how rapidly the crow plague can turn severe or fatal, if you're infected but the docs aren't aware (because we're not fucking testing) and/or you're not near a hospital (with the means to help you), you can end up just bloody dying because no one is taking proper precautions or fucking knows they need to, to keep your ass from dying.

The costs involved are definitely driving people stateside to not seek even basic aid, though, yes. On top of everything else. Part of the "fun" shit is that covid shares symptoms with a lot of shit, so one thing I've seen folks concerned about is even if aid is available for covid testing or care (and if anywhere is actually fucking doing that for the uninsured in the US, I haven't noticed), if they're ill and uncovered and go in to get checked on and it turns out it isn't the crow plague, now they're up shit creek of medical bills and the paddles are only being provided to other boats. So they don't go in, because a negative hurts them as much as or more than a positive.

Go figure, a fucked up healthcare system is making a fucked up situation more fucked. Who could have goddamn thought.

[martinuzz]

Do "confirmed cases" include cases confirmed post mortem?

In the (dutch) article I linked it is stated that people are not being tested post mortem, and that that is a likely cause for significant underreporting.

I guess if we had enough tests we would test the dead, but we don't even have enough tests to test anyone except those that are so ill they need hospitalization.
Nearest producer of tests (our neighbor Germany) for now is keeping their tests for domestic use.

EDIT: Meanwhile, the commander of the Theodore Roosevelt has been relieved of his command.  According to minister of the Navy Thomas Modley, the captain has shown poor judgement, by mailing his distress call to 20 to 30 of his colleagues, after which it leaked to the media.

[Starver]

While testing is already contentiously rationed (e.g. UK healthcare staff in precautionary isolation apparently remaining untested and unable to work while priority is given to checking the patients their colleagues need to confirm/deny, and other jurisdictions would have other pressures) it may well be that in the list of testing priorities the entire R-set in the SIR model (that works with the dynamic shifts of the population between the groups Susceptible, Infectious and Recovered/'Removed') is generally lower in the list unless you're actively trying to establish a link to S-people transitioning to being in the I-group.

Obviously someone with seemingly enough malevolent determination to spend their last hours 'spreading the love' as far and wide as they can is a priority post-mortem testee compared to other more 'considerate' end-of-life transitions into the Rs. Perhaps they can bottle up samples from all morbidities (home as well as hospital) to systematically revisit later when 'live testing' isn't so urgent, but the various logistics on that aren't easy to imagine.

Or so I surnise, from my own armchair. I'd defer to someone who has practical involvement in these decision processes and/or practicalities behind them. And different nations/areas may have their own subtle twists on this whole mix.

Spoiler: Personal musings on my place in that (click to show/hide)

I can't wait for testing to reach me - by scheduled reasons rather than through absolute necessity, ideally. I have an elderly relative I am supporting (not being young myself) and I can feel myself entering hay-fever season. Though not exactly the same symptoms it would be nice to ensure that my allergies are neither masking nor masquerading as the virus, with reasonable certainty.

And that's just the antigen one. Getting -/+ respectively on antigen/antibody test would be the 'best' outcome. At least in hindsight. And assuming I've not been specifically tested as a "suspected-I".

But I'm well down any reasonable list of testing priority as it stands. (Until/unless it strikes, which always a thing that can happen, I know.) I'm not even an official 'carer'. My old but fit relative doesn't need 'looking after', as such, outside of the enforced-isolation issues themselves. I think I'll get called upon due to my age before my location/employment/etc flags me up as test-worthy, by which time it'll be more like a routine whole-population procedure (if it ever possibly gets to that) and either after or alongside said relative.

(Slightly ninjaed by the last two posts.)

[martinuzz]

Coming summer, a shortage of various basic medicine is expected in the EU and the US, because we have moved just about all of our production to cheap labour countries China and India.
The lockdown in these countries has made production drop a lot in facilities that make basic medicine like penicilline, antibiotics, paracetamol and ibuprofen.
For now there is still some reserve in Chinese warehouses but it is expected that somewhere in or after summer, shortages will start showing and abovementioned medication can not be delivered to our countries.
India has already put in place an import ban for various medicine and their raw rescources.
The EU is looking into building an emergency facility to at least make penicilline.

I hope a solution can be found, because if there's no more antibiotics, a whole lot of people are going to die of other things than corona.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/medicijnen-dreigen-over-paar-maanden-op-te-raken-door-afhankelijkheid-china-en-india~b06a5cea/

[Greiger]

Spoiler: coronavirus unemployment news (click to show/hide)

In semi coronavirus related news the unemployment system (at least in florida) is completely broken and non-functional.  I applied for unemployment on the 21st or 22nd (it was the middle of the night because that's the only time the site works at all).  That was a little bit before the rush.  My status is pending, I have heard nothing from anybody to get anything it seems my status needs to be resolved by monday because that's when it says I need to have all my ducks in a row by if I want anything.

Successfully applied, but next day the website told me I needed to call a number to authenticate my identity.  As if all the info I had already given was not enough.  I have been calling every day since, either I get a busy signal, I am hung up on(I hear someone pick up the line hear what sounds like background noise, then it immediately clicks out), or I get an automated message telling me to email instead.

I am almost certain the email system will tell me they can't help me and I need to call, but I tried that the first time I got that message.  Around about the 23rd.  Have yet to get a response.

Look up more information and if I understand the articles right this is not a new issue, its just finally being put in the light because of all the people applying lately, because of layoffs, or people being fired or forced to quit due to quarantine like myself.  I've half a mind to believe that the system is intentionally barely functional because politicians don't want people getting unemployment money, and now with the rush it's gone from barely functional to straight up non-functional.

[dragdeler]

-

[wierd]

Potentially dodgy source, but nice news if true...

Premature... but nice news anyway.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/

Apparently also on CBS news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNX7WAtsbog

[ChairmanPoo]

Potentially dodgy source, but nice news if true...

Premature... but nice news anyway.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/

Apparently also on CBS news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNX7WAtsbog

*shrug*

There are like... 40? 50? vaccine candidates. About half of them being developed in China.

Having a candidate is not specially newsworthy. The problem is  making sure it works on humans fast enough. That will take months even on a best case scenario and rushing it far faster than you normally would....


That being said: there are currently ongoing trials for BCG vaccine and coronavirus in the US, Australia, and the Netherlands. The scientific rationale is that live vaccines have been shown to temporarily enhance immunity against unrelated infections, that BCG apparently was tentatively studied in the past as being specially good at inducing this (not clear on how solid that evidence is), and countries doing TB vaccines with BCG having slower covid spread than you'd expect. To me it seems a bit of a hail mary approach but it might reduce the risk, at least for a while, for the most exposed personnel... if it works at all.  We'll see

[Jimmy]

Regarding vaccines, you need to be aware that manufacturing a vaccine can theoretically be done overnight. However, the testing to determine if it's safe and effective is long and fraught with trial and error.

One of the worst outcomes can be antibody-dependent enhancement, where the immune system can actually increase viral penetration of the body's cells. Different virus serotypes can turn a relatively mild infection into a life-threatening illness in those whose immune system only recognize one type. This actually caused a recall of dengue fever vaccines recently in the Philippines due to risk of serotype mismatch caused by vaccination causing greater harm than the infection itself.

Since this virus is known to be zoonotic, we can probably predict a high chance of serotype divergence in the future. If we end up with a dengue-like antibody-dependent enhancement of from a poorly developed and tested vaccine, and given that it's likely any vaccine will be almost universally distributed, we might end up causing a significant number of silent symptom cases to instead cascade into critical organ failure due to a COVID-19 divergent serotype penetrating into cells with little to no ACE-2 receptor expression, all courtesy of their own immune system.

So yeah, I'm not gonna be first in line to try a brand new vaccine with limited trial data. Gimme some solid vaccine epidemiological studies first before you jab me with whatever you cook up, thanks.

[dragdeler]

-

[TD1]

Hopefully the virus will largely have run its course by then. Unless it becomes seasonal, yeesh. But I'm no virologist.

[Iduno]

Seems like most people who end up on the ventilator end up dead...
The NY gov said it’s roughly a 20% chance you live.
EU folk I think have said it’s a coin flip 50/50

Not too surprising, I suppose. Presumably these numbers are sensitive to the timeliness of intervention, with less overwhelmed health systems being more responsive and having higher recovery rates?

It depends on many factors. In the US, I wonder if the lack of health insurance could drive people to refrain from requesting treatment until it is too late?

Yes it can. One of my coworkers is having to do that.

It depends on many factors. In the US, I wonder if the lack of health insurance could drive people to refrain from requesting treatment until it is too late?

It's not just that -- in a lot of places we're still basically not fucking testing, so you functionally can't "request treatment" until it's too late. Given how rapidly the crow plague can turn severe or fatal, if you're infected but the docs aren't aware (because we're not fucking testing) and/or you're not near a hospital (with the means to help you), you can end up just bloody dying because no one is taking proper precautions or fucking knows they need to, to keep your ass from dying.

The costs involved are definitely driving people stateside to not seek even basic aid, though, yes. On top of everything else. Part of the "fun" shit is that covid shares symptoms with a lot of shit, so one thing I've seen folks concerned about is even if aid is available for covid testing or care (and if anywhere is actually fucking doing that for the uninsured in the US, I haven't noticed), if they're ill and uncovered and go in to get checked on and it turns out it isn't the crow plague, now they're up shit creek of medical bills and the paddles are only being provided to other boats. So they don't go in, because a negative hurts them as much as or more than a positive.

Go figure, a fucked up healthcare system is making a fucked up situation more fucked. Who could have goddamn thought.

And yet, in the US, both main-party candidates for president have said that better healthcare wouldn't help anything, and have pledged to prevent it.

Edit: And one of those assholes is still telling people to get out and vote in person. Fucking piece of disingenuous shit. Stay the fuck home, people. No matter what the old men tell you. You can vote online, or through the mail.

[Teneb]

Meanwhile in Brazil: we hit 330 confirmed deaths. You can just check my posts on the thread to see how fast it's climbing.

[TamerVirus]

562 deaths in NY (in the past 24 hours)
The working class sections of the borough of Queens remains the hardest hit.
The hardest hit area of Queens?
The neighborhood of Corona, naturally

[Il Palazzo]

The hardest hit area of Queens?
The neighborhood of Corona, naturally

Shiite. I'm now morbidly disappointed the outbreak didn't start there. It'd be called Corona coronavirus.