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Author Topic: Untamed Virus Containment Thread:COVID-19: Lurking Omni-Flu Edition  (Read 476036 times)

Doomblade187

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2010 on: April 02, 2020, 11:47:17 pm »

Bonus points - the CDC headquarters is like 6 miles outside Atlanta.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2011 on: April 02, 2020, 11:50:49 pm »

It turns out, people who are good at electoral fraud are not typically good at politics.
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Reelya

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2012 on: April 03, 2020, 12:01:44 am »

There's new about some guy in Thailand who dropped dead on a train and was then tested positive for coronavirus. In CCTV footage reviewed, he's seen spitting in someone else's face. So, possibly the asshole knew he was infected and pretty far gone and decided to share it around.

ZBridges

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2013 on: April 03, 2020, 12:03:28 am »

I've heard of people doing that, spitting to try to spread the virus.  What's the cause of strange compulsions like that?
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2014 on: April 03, 2020, 12:04:42 am »

That's more concerning to me in that he could go from walking to dead in the span of a train ride. That's a ridiculous rate of degradation, and it fits with some of the reports nurses have given.
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Quote from: Thomas Paine
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2015 on: April 03, 2020, 01:04:09 am »

I've heard of people doing that, spitting to try to spread the virus.  What's the cause of strange compulsions like that?
People are dicks. We had some lowlifes dling covid19 robberies in my home city.

As in they were + and stole stuff from shops threatening to spit on cashiers
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Quarque

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2016 on: April 03, 2020, 02:08:22 am »

Seems like most people who end up on the ventilator end up dead...
The NY gov said it’s roughly a 20% chance you live.
EU folk I think have said it’s a coin flip 50/50

Not too surprising, I suppose. Presumably these numbers are sensitive to the timeliness of intervention, with less overwhelmed health systems being more responsive and having higher recovery rates?

It depends on many factors. In the US, I wonder if the lack of health insurance could drive people to refrain from requesting treatment until it is too late?
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mko

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2017 on: April 03, 2020, 02:10:42 am »

Seems like most people who end up on the ventilator end up dead...
The NY gov said it’s roughly a 20% chance you live.
EU folk I think have said it’s a coin flip 50/50
Yes, ventilators are not some miracle cure. But increasing chances from basically 0 to 20% is still clearly valuable. Modern medicine is amazing but number of 100% effective miracle treatments is lower than people expect.

If you are in "certain death or treatment" situation, you are still likely to die even with treatment.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 02:23:47 am by mko »
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Bralbaard

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2018 on: April 03, 2020, 02:16:40 am »

The Dutch statistics institute just released numbers saying that in the week from 16 to 22 march, 500 more people died in the Netherlands than would be expected for that week in a normal year.
Now there were only 233 reported covid fatalities in that week, so it is possible that deads from covid are significantly underreported, as only fatalities from confirmed cases are counted.

Just remember when picking on the Chinese numbers and statistics, that other countries are having their own issues.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 02:23:56 am by Bralbaard »
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Quarque

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2019 on: April 03, 2020, 02:33:51 am »

only fatalities from confirmed cases are counted.

Is that true? Damn, that means that even the death count is a bogus number. In the Netherlands we are barely testing anyone!
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2020 on: April 03, 2020, 02:43:56 am »

The Dutch statistics institute just released numbers saying that in the week from 16 to 22 march, 500 more people died in the Netherlands than would be expected for that week in a normal year.
Now there were only 233 reported covid fatalities in that week, so it is possible that deads from covid are significantly underreported, as only fatalities from confirmed cases are counted.

Just remember when picking on the Chinese numbers and statistics, that other countries are having their own issues.

I said as much here

Originally from Bloomberg, who doesn't have the best record with anonymous tips or whistleblowers, so take it as it is, but not surprising at all and very much in line with what people were expecting to be going on. (Although there's an argument that makes it even more suspect, but hey, it's news.)

https://news.yahoo.com/china-concealed-extent-virus-outbreak-151550123.html
I don't think it's necessarily concealment. Or rather, I think that while there might be an element of concealment, that's not the full story with COVID19 numbers. In general between the lack of tests, asymptomatic carriers, unrelated deaths due to healthcare overload, and goverments being less than 100% clear about their criteria for testing the living and counting the dead at any given minute, I think you have to take everyone's numbers with prudence.

There was an article about this in a national newspaper. This is the English version of the article:
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-30/tracking-the-coronavirus-why-does-each-country-count-deaths-differently.html

The title in Spanish was blunter: "Every country is counting the dead as it sees fit, and noone is doing it particularily well".
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Bralbaard

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2021 on: April 03, 2020, 02:46:59 am »

only fatalities from confirmed cases are counted.

Is that true? Damn, that means that even the death count is a bogus number. In the Netherlands we are barely testing anyone!

yes

https://www.nporadio1.nl/gezondheid/22635-huisartsen-niet-alle-corona-doden-worden-geregistreerd (in Dutch)

At least we know, and with numbers like the ones just released by the statistics institute we can get a reasonable grasp of the real numbers.
It's just important to realize that getting the numbers right is hard.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 02:49:25 am by Bralbaard »
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bloop_bleep

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2022 on: April 03, 2020, 03:08:41 am »

Do "confirmed cases" include cases confirmed post mortem?
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ZBridges

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2023 on: April 03, 2020, 03:15:51 am »

Hospitals in New York were overrun, but luckily the 1000-bed Navy hospital ship Comfort arrived in port 5 days ago to ease the burden.  It is currently treating no more than 20 patients due to regulatory issues and the hospitals remain far past capacity.  Great job.
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Bralbaard

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #2024 on: April 03, 2020, 03:24:47 am »

Do "confirmed cases" include cases confirmed post mortem?

In the (dutch) article I linked it is stated that people are not being tested post mortem, and that that is a likely cause for significant underreporting.
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