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[McTraveller]

Right now, your best bet is to hit the supermarket right at opening time. But even then, queues are starting before that.

This is the kind of advice that perpetuates the problem.

Just go to the store like you normally would, on your normal schedule, perhaps wearing a kerchief so when you sneeze it doesn't go anywhere, and none of this would have been a problem!

EDIT: and this is also highly regional too.  We were able to get almost all our regular groceries today, except for eggs.  No eggs anywhere...  and we didn't overstock, we just got our regular stuff.

[martinuzz]

Heh, same here in my town. No eggs. At all. 3h after opening time.

[Reelya]

Yeah, I don't believe it was actually that meme that caused it.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-role-did-rumour-play-in-australia-s-toilet-paper-frenzy-20200304-p546tt.html

One of the first tweets showing empty supermarket shelves following China's coronavirus outbreak appeared in Hong Kong on February 5, with political journalist Alvin Lum writing about "troubling online rumours" causing a "sudden surge in demand for toilet paper".

So, the first signs of that were in China.

There have been toilet paper panics quite often. It just seems to be a product category that's somehow prone to this stuff. For example, in 1973 there was a "toilet paper panic". Actually, there were two separate toilet paper panics of 1973, in USA and Japan, and both were triggered by unrelated incidents:
https://www.ripleys.com/weird-news/toilet-paper-panic/
https://gaijinass.com/2011/03/10/toliet-paper-panic/

also, Taiwan toilet paper panic of 2018
https://econlife.com/2018/03/taiwans-toilet-paper-shortage/

also, UK news said there would be a post-Brexit toilet paper shortage. Basically asking for a panic right there:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/brexit-toilet-paper-shortage

According to the Confederation of Paper Industries, 1.3 million tonnes of tissue is used in the UK every year, with 1.1 million of it being imported into the UK.

Right now, your best bet is to hit the supermarket right at opening time. But even then, queues are starting before that.

This is the kind of advice that perpetuates the problem.

Just go to the store like you normally would, on your normal schedule, perhaps wearing a kerchief so when you sneeze it doesn't go anywhere, and none of this would have been a problem!

EDIT: and this is also highly regional too.  We were able to get almost all our regular groceries today, except for eggs.  No eggs anywhere...  and we didn't overstock, we just got our regular stuff.

But that's stupid. Then you'll never get anything and have to keep going back over and over again, and you'll probably grab a few extra things each time, because you made the trip.

If you want to get your regular amount of stuff, you need to get their before the hoarders. If you purchase what you always did then you're not the cause of the problem. I've started stocking up now, gradually, but I still have less food than I used to right now when I used to stock up 4 weeks ahead.

Going shopping in the morning instead of the afternoon isn't the "cause" of the problem.

[Iduno]

My guess would be some MPs and/or members of government are valuing the economy too much.

Yes, but you would think at least one would realize that fewer people getting sick is better for the economy.

Probably because compared to Eastern governments, Western Governments with their emphasis on personal and individual freedom would have to resort to putting troops on the street to enforce curfews. Compared to Eastern governments with their collectivist mindsets, it's probably a lot easier and more socially acceptable for them to go straight to curfews and have them actually be respected by the populace without putting troops on the street.

Because as soon as Martial Law gets declared and there are troops on the street enforcing curfews and quarantine orders in Western countries, that's when the panic and hysteria is going to reach 11.

Why don't they just make 10 louder and make 10 be the top number and make that a little louder?

But that's stupid. Then you'll never get anything and have to keep going back over and over again. If you want to get your regular amount of stuff, you need to get their before the hoarders.

Or know where the hoarders are going.

[TamerVirus]

self-fulfilling prophecy.
Rumors of a shortage that end up making that shortage a reality

[Naryar]

France is in full quarantine mode now. I just started work today and... well, no longer. It was inevitable.

I am slightly worried about food variety in my local supermarket, but otherwise not so much.

Also this toilet paper buy craze is silly... i've seen several people buy lots of it already.

[martinuzz]

I sense that, when this is all over, there's gonna be lots of toilet paper parties.

[Iduno]

Welp, we're apparently at the Madagascar-closes-borders stage of the not!game. Life imitating art, I guess.

Also, apparently President Madagascar's real name is Andry Rajoelina.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[Reelya]

EDIT: and this is also highly regional too.  We were able to get almost all our regular groceries today, except for eggs.  No eggs anywhere...  and we didn't overstock, we just got our regular stuff.

Yeah, I think you have to take into the account the situation here.

Right now, if I go at a "normal" time, I can get maybe 5% of the products I normally get for food. "just shop normally" is not a viable strategy. That's the same as saying "just starve to death".

For example, there's often zero tinned tuna, and tinned tuna is the main protein I eat. I eat sardines for protein too, and even those got stripped out. No more sardines basically. No eggs, no frozen chicken. That's basically all my meat meals, and none of those are available at "go at your regular schedule" times.

Things I also buy are canned beans, chickpeas, diced tomatoes, rice, curry powder. Those are for making my lunches for work. Literally every ingredient, including the curry powder have completely been stripped either most or all of the time. I have to go at opening time just in hope they have one or the other thing in stock so I can make my work lunches. And, even at opening time today, half those things weren't there.

I've also noticed that at opening time now, rather than having the shelves fully stocked, they're only laying in piecemeal amounts of new stock. There was still literally no toilet paper on sale even at opening time. They had like 2 small boxes of baby-wipes instead and people were shrugging and getting the tiny packets of baby wipes (which still have a 1-pack limit).
 
 I'll be down to newspaper soon at this rate. So, I'm not the problem here, it's whoever got all the fucking toilet paper who's the problem.

[McTraveller]

My point was, there is a hoarding problem because people think there is going to be a hoarding problem, so it happens.

Why don't we have "circuit breakers" in grocery stores like we do for the stock market?

[Reelya]

They do. It's called running out.

But seriously, that's what raising prices is meant to achieve. But, the supermarkets don't want the bad PR of being seen to be profiting from this, so instead of raising prices, they've effectively self-imposed price controls. And price controls by themselves lead to hoarding behavior, even if there wasn't a panic.

but more seriously, they imposed buying limits of basically 1-2 packs on a stack of things. So you can't buy more than 1 pack of toilet paper now, and they shifted production to smaller packs.

And that's why I was mentioning the Soviet Union before, back when they had bread lines. It was for the same basic reasons. Demand rose, but they didn't want to raise prices, so stock sold out (artificially kept cheap) and there was hoarding/speculation, so they then impose rationing to deal with that problem.

The real problem is that demand is rising, but they won't raise prices so shortages are inevitable in that situation. Also, they failed to anticipate the problem. If they had, they could have over-produced to ensure there were never shortages in the first place. Since they failed to do that, they need to ramp up production even more now that they would have had to if they anticipated the situation. But of course, down the track there's going to be a huge crash in demand.

[Bralbaard]

But seriously, that's what raising prices is meant to achieve. But, the supermarkets don't want the bad PR of being seen to be profiting from this, so instead of raising prices, they've effectively self-imposed price controls. And price controls by themselves lead to hoarding behavior, even if there wasn't a panic.

Allowing the prices to rise would probably be worse. People would start to hoard them to sell them at a profit, and people that actually ran out of toiletpaper and legitimately need to buy a pack, would not be able to afford them, causing even more hysteria.

Pssst.. hey there.. want to buy a roll of toilet paper? Only 29.99! The best quality.. as good as new.. meet me in the alley over there..

[Reelya]

No you got that the wrong way around. If the store price rises, then you don't get hoarding. It's when the store price is kept low, but the black market value rises, then you get hoarding and black-market selling.

For example, say that toilet paper was in high demand, and bringing the store price to $50 per roll caused that demand to hit equilibrium with supply. At this point you can buy a toilet paper roll for $50, but the free-market price is also $50. Anyone with a "hoard" of it either sells it all off, or they keep it for personal use. They don't buy more: it'll be $50 whether you buy one now or later. the demand spike then drops off and the price returns to normal.

Alternatively, the stores say "demand is high but we refuse to raise the price". What then happens is speculators buy all the rolls for $1 a piece, and sell them for $50 on the black market. This then exacerbates the shortage and causes even more hoarding and speculation. Which then leads to the "rationing" phase.

[da_nang]

Raise the prices, you fuck the poor. A story as old as time.

It's much like rent. You already have a tenant; you already profit off him; so why must the rent go up when the demand goes up?

Supply and demand is treated like gospel, when it's more greed-induced voodoo than reality.

[WealthyRadish]

Most of these commodities are necessities where normal consumption isn't sensitive to price. Price-gouging intense enough to deter hoarding would be more than a PR disaster, given how many people there are for whom necessities are already a large portion of their budget at current prices. The sort of mythological "long-run" yada-yadaing that goes along with the supply/demand coloring book economics is particularly irrelevant in a temporary panic where the factors of production know this is temporary and will not make major changes in response. It's would just be a pointless cash grab that uses public hysteria to rip off everyone, particularly the most vulnerable.

Rationing (at the very least basic stuff already mentioned like limiting individual daily purchases of items) is a better solution, and in any decent country where public trust exists can counteract hoarding by at least giving the appearance that the government is acting and will not let them starve or get bled dry in the immediate future over a temporary panic.