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Author Topic: Vanilla Tea Mafia: TOWN VICTORY  (Read 56613 times)

Pooka

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #285 on: August 29, 2019, 12:10:51 pm »

Pooka: Is your suspicions that Natruegirl is NJW's teammate grounded in anything more concrete? Especially considering that unless Superdorf and Nature are on the same team, we know she visited Superdorf last night.
No, it is not. I only have the thing about NJW's response to her as the most concrete I got against her.
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IcyTea31

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #286 on: August 29, 2019, 03:56:31 pm »

Sorry for the late update. Hammering is now available.

Quote from: Votecount
Not voting: Naturegirl1999, Superdorf, NJW2000, Pooka, Persus13

Pseudovotes:
NJW2000: Persus13, Pooka, Superdorf (3)
Pooka: NJW2000 (1)

Day Two ends on 2019-09-02 15:00 UTC.
Extension is available, requiring 3 votes.
Hammering is available, requiring 3 votes.
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NJW2000

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #287 on: August 29, 2019, 07:14:04 pm »

Also wow you guys need to chill, cause there's a lot of rambling and misreading going on in all of y'all's posts.

Right now the person you need to convince isn't the person you're accusing, its me.
And Naturegirl. Well, Pooka and Superdorf just need to convince one of the two of you to vote me and it's all over, they have an advantage that way. But I need to convince both of you.

Makes me slightly regret waiting to find the second scum, really. But I don't know if claiming earlier would have made a difference.



This gambit is too much risk for too little gain. Why do all of this mental gymnastics as scum? I could have "watched" someone else and not do the roleblocking claim. What it would have come down to is Naturegirl being suspected for her play and possibly lynched. Game over. Scummy Superdorf and I already had the necessary ammo to win the game. Gambits are done when you're in a tight position and you must think of something to tip the scale in your favor, pronto. This couldn't have been it.
-
It's in my favor as scum to muddy the waters, not to build up consistent stories. Here's what building up a consistent story get us: being the spotlight of your scumteam theory. If the waters were muddied, nobody would have coherent stories to rely on, all they'd have is their separate night actions.

-
"I like how you're misconstruing me." in your own words.

The LyLo thing is in reference to the current game situation: scum is possibly one lynch away. Since you proposed Superdorf and I as the scumteam, it would indeed be the last day; all we need to get in is one lynch. Yes, Superdorf started with his bad vibes about you, but it wouldn't have necessarily held on to the end of the day to lynch him.

But with only three town left, in what could be a lylo situation I'd say that it is in your interest to build up consistent stories, just in case other people do the same thing. Especially with one of you performing the nightkill, and being likely to conflict with someone else's testimony. And now there's an argument, two against one, which is pretty good odds for you: I had to wait until the end of the claims (which I know looks bad, but hey, I wanted to find scum and thought Pooka would be town), and now have to convince both Persus and Naturegirl. I'm still pretty confident about this though. I'm pretty sure the omgus behaviour, possible scumslips and rambly reaction is clear enough evidence you're scum.




----
Now, while scrolling through the previous posts, I caught something even more interesting in light of Day 2.

I myself have a hunch that there is an SK.

What happened to that hunch, NJW? It's a very specific hunch, and you don't seem to exhibit it to-Day.
If you actually wanted to see what happened to that hunch, you might have tried reading the thread. But never mind, here's what happened to the hunch.

I myself thought there was an SK because no strong lynch cases had emerged when I said this, which suggests the mafia weren't focusing on obtaining a lynch to benefit scum, and that quite a few players were more interested in figuring out who was who than killing efficiently.
All that's out the window what with the new developments.

I indeed have not considered the possibility today that there is an SK. But tbh, it doesn't seem likely. Unless quite a few people are lying, there would have been two nightkills.

But really it doesn't matter to me right now whether there's an SK or not. If I'm not lynched today, I'll be the prime nightkill target as an obvious town player, so I'm fairly unlikely to see D3 whatever happens. Right now, I'm just trying to lynch the person who lied.

Maybe my theory about motivations is completely wrong and instead this mess was produced by scum and SK play. Makes no difference to me really, lynch all liars, as they say.



@Persus @Naturegirl

Mechanically (and correct me if I'm wrong here) I'm pretty sure this comes down to my word against Pooka's/Superdorf's. And yes, there is one of me and two of them, but there are two scum, so I wouldn't make numbers the deciding factor in your judgement...

So you have a couple of options. Guess about scum/town motives and try and work out which of our explanations of the night is more likely. Reread the game, checking for dubious behaviour, scumtells, dodgy scumhunting, etc. Or pick someone at random, I can't really stop you if you want to flip a coin or consult the I Ching :P . I'd rather you didn't do those last ones though.

Persus is right, I should really be focusing on your questions, rather than still trying to scumhunt Pooka/Superdorf. So fire away, if you have any.
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Naturegirl1999

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #288 on: August 29, 2019, 08:54:28 pm »

Yes, if there is two scum it would make sense to agree on a story and lynch a town member. Because of this, and because of their lying, I vote Pooka
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Superdorf

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #289 on: August 29, 2019, 09:33:32 pm »

Woah there that's a red vote... are you so certain of your decision as to risk a game-over? If Pooka proves to be town, and you happen to be town, the scumteam could be quickhammering their way to a victory right now...
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NJW2000

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #290 on: August 29, 2019, 11:30:10 pm »

Yeah Naturegirl, while I'm perfectly comfortable with you doing that because I think Pooka's scum and know scum won't quickhammer themselves, it's better to let people talk it out before voting in this situation.

Also, I'm not sure you've entirely grasped the complexities of the affair, though I'm happy you think Pooka's lying and not me  :P
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NJW2000

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #291 on: August 29, 2019, 11:43:36 pm »

Persus, seeing as you're the only one, aside from Naturegirl, not caught up in this, do you think you could use your wealth of experience to summarise for her in fairly neutral terms a) what precisely is going on and b) how she might be choosing who to lynch.


Also, Naturegirl, please unvote. In theory, scum might be able to hammer here and end the game because if someone gets three lynchvotes on them with 5 players alive, they're automatically lynched. And it's a breach of etiquette towards other potential town players at least to potentially end the game without their input.

Pointless detour, do not read: In practice, it's pretty clear to you/persus that the scumteam is either [me and persus/you respectively] or [Pooka and Superdorf]. The latter two are scum, and I know Pooka's not town. Persus presumably thinks either you or the person you're voting is scum, so isn't worried about the hammer. So you're really the only one who can be afraid that mafia will use your vote to hammer town.

I'm not sure I'd want to use a quickhammer as scum in this situation though. It'd feel... cheap.
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Pooka

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #292 on: August 30, 2019, 06:21:17 am »

Naturegirl a day ago:
Also Naturegirl, I need you to fullclaim your role.
Full Claim?
Loud Bodyguard
Ooh, this would explain that little notification I got... excellent!
Mm, does this claim affect any of our other speculations at all? I don't think it really does.
I am unsure, don’t fully get NJW’s post, and haven’t decided yet. But I’m thinking of voting NJW because of this
quote author=Persus13 link=topic=174411.msg8016983#msg8016983 date=1567008795]
Everyone: Thoughts on a mass claim? We know Superdorf can't have done the NK if he's telling the truth. Nature claims to have protected Superdorf. Pooka's action is unclaimed, but I have reason to believe he didn't night kill last night.

Assuming everyone so far is telling the truth today, NJW had to have committed the night kill.
[/wuote]
(emphasis mine)


Also Naturegirl today:
Yes, if there is two scum it would make sense to agree on a story and lynch a town member. Because of this, and because of their lying, I vote Pooka

I like how you just say "because of their lying" as if Superdorf and I were actually lying, except...you seem very sure about it. Are you mafia?
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Pooka

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #293 on: August 30, 2019, 06:23:09 am »

Ignore above post. This post has no differences except the formatting is fixed.

Naturegirl a day ago:
Also Naturegirl, I need you to fullclaim your role.
Full Claim?
Loud Bodyguard
Ooh, this would explain that little notification I got... excellent!
Mm, does this claim affect any of our other speculations at all? I don't think it really does.
I am unsure, don’t fully get NJW’s post, and haven’t decided yet. But I’m thinking of voting NJW because of this
quote author=Persus13 link=topic=174411.msg8016983#msg8016983 date=1567008795]
Everyone: Thoughts on a mass claim? We know Superdorf can't have done the NK if he's telling the truth. Nature claims to have protected Superdorf. Pooka's action is unclaimed, but I have reason to believe he didn't night kill last night.

Assuming everyone so far is telling the truth today, NJW had to have committed the night kill.
(emphasis mine)


Also Naturegirl today:
Yes, if there is two scum it would make sense to agree on a story and lynch a town member. Because of this, and because of their lying, I vote Pooka

I like how you just say "because of their lying" as if Superdorf and I were actually lying, except...you seem very sure about it. Are you mafia?
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NJW2000

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #294 on: August 30, 2019, 06:40:10 am »

Are you mafia?
Wow. If only every bit of scumhunting was as incisive and sophisticated as that.

More seriously, Naturegirl, while I know who the scum is, someone who does not yet have the full picture, i.e. Persus, might like to know your reasoning for trusting me over Pooka, or at least not believing Pooka.
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Pooka

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #295 on: August 30, 2019, 06:47:34 am »

Are you mafia?
Wow. If only every bit of scumhunting was as incisive and sophisticated as that.

More seriously, Naturegirl, while I know who the scum is, someone who does not yet have the full picture, i.e. Persus, might like to know your reasoning for trusting me over Pooka, or at least not believing Pooka.
No no no, not just her reasoning for not believing me, but also for not believing Superdorf.. The part where she shifts from a singular suspicion (you) to a dual suspicion (Superdorf and I) is worth looking over with a magnifying glass several hundred times.

Plus, do continue coaching her publicly. That will help matters greatly.
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NJW2000

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #296 on: August 30, 2019, 07:00:24 am »

Plus, do continue coaching her publicly. That will help matters greatly.
Seeing as I don't have a scumchat I can coach her in, I am going to keep coaxing Naturegirl towards explaining her thoughts and motivations, yes. Persus seems to have been absent the last few hours, Superdorf abandons any interest in helping new players when he comes under fire, and your best "question" was "are you scum?", which is both beneath responding to and unlikely to get information out of Naturegirl. Information that Persus, the one player we all agree is town, may need to consider.

You're right that Superdorf's claims and mine do conflict. Naturegirl hasn't said anything about Superdorf however. I don't actually know if she has realised that our claims conflict. Careful reading has proven to be a real problem for some people this game.
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Superdorf

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #297 on: August 30, 2019, 07:01:19 am »

Notably, that original suspicion of Naturegirl's was apparently based solely on Persus' post earlier.

So if she's town, she was pretty hesitant to begin with. If she's scum, that post was likely just to please Persus, and never was going to have any real weight behind it.
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Persus13

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #298 on: August 30, 2019, 07:44:19 am »

To be fair I've been absent for the past few hours because I've been asleep.

Persus, seeing as you're the only one, aside from Naturegirl, not caught up in this, do you think you could use your wealth of experience to summarise for her in fairly neutral terms a) what precisely is going on and b) how she might be choosing who to lynch.

Everyone claimed night actions except NJW, which implied NJW was scum by process of elimination. NJW then counterclaimed Pooka by saying he has evidence Pooka and Superdorf are lying.

You should pick who to lynch by which claim you think is more plausible.
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Pooka

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Re: Vanilla Tea Mafia: Day Two: Nature or Nurture?
« Reply #299 on: August 30, 2019, 08:17:09 am »

I like the whole sequence of events that led up to NJW's "counterclaim" on my role. What he attacks in my story is also what makes his theory so great.

The day begins with Superdorf dropping this gem of a post:
- somebody roleblocked him
- Naturegirl visited him

Now, eventually we learn that Naturegirl is a protective role, and later on she fullclaims to be Loud Bodyguard. I suspected the Loud bit since Superdorf namedropping Naturegirl looked off - there got to be something to explain it.

Then comes Persus to say that he was certain I didn't do the killing, rather, that I visited Superdorf (by claiming Universal Backup using Ion's Tracker), and everyone was about to put two and two together; that I roleblocked Superdorf. That left only one person plausible for 4maskwolf's kill, NJW2000.

At that point, NJW could have appeared and attacked Superdorf by saying I watched him, not roleblocked him. But that wouldn't have the desirable effect of bringing down two birds with one stone, would it?

He instead chose to wait until I claimed. At the risk of appearing scummy by withholding his claim until I claimed first, he decided he would be better off painting two people as scum. And he did so in a way that you can't believe one is scummy but the other not; both have to be scum at the same time. A very clever part of his plan.

His claim itself is convenient. IonMatrix was a tracker...and NJW is a follower? Do you realize how overpowered town would be with these roles? If used right, the mafia is snuffed out in one fatal blow. And their modifiers mean they would have worked in tandem on Night 1 - a nightmare for scum, especially if we're talking about a two-man scumteam.


So there are several arguments you could consider for NJW being scum:
- he held back his claim, not doing any claiming until he found a weakness point in the others' claims.
- his claim itself makes him the second investigative role in a game with a most probable scumteam of two.
- his claim makes both Superdorf and myself as the scum in one fell swoop.
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