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[notquitethere]

OK, let's set up an instructive dilemma:

Deus Asmoth

(0)Superdorf -
(3)TricMagic - Deus Asmoth, Superdorf, randomgenericusername
(0)Persus13 -
(0)KitRougard
(1)randomgenericusername - Persus13
(3)Deus Asmoth - TricMagic, KitRougard, notquitethere
(0)notquitethere -
(0)No Lynch -

The end of day is in about twenty hours. We've got two competing theories: there's a cult team and Tric is best pick to be on the cult (because of voting and their goo claim + the flip?), or there's mafia and scum!Deus is setting up an otherwise conftown player as scum. The infolynch choice would be to hit Tric however Deus's claimed kill is great cover for them if they are mafia.

Persus which of the wagons do you favour?

[TricMagic]

Do the Cultists have their own chat?

[TricMagic]

Do the Cultists have their own chat?

Bay12 is being picky..
Shakerag, question above's answer?

Also, I'd be fine with my infolynch, for all that I'd rather see Dues Lynched. Don't know why Rgun propses a plan in which someone with a Cop skill ends up dead. And Dues still says it's a generic Kill ability. What that Ability is tells us a lot.

[Deus Asmoth]

If RGU does use an ability on me tonight then that should confirm he's not in the cult. We do have the option of having everyone target me with a different night ability if they have one and lynching everyone that doesn't have a night action, but I don't know if that would be the best course of action.

NQT: It doesn't really make a difference to me who we lynch between Tric and Kit, since either one of them would effectively be confirmed if the other one flips town, or confirmed as cult otherwise.

[TricMagic]

And if you happen to be a cultist? Or Mafia for that matter, as gaining one of every ability to target you would be way too useful to choose who to kill.

[Shakerag]

Do the Cultists have their own chat?

Bay12 is being picky..
Shakerag, question above's answer?

Cult alignment always gets a chat as far as I can think of, yes.

[Persus13]

Persus: I'm not sure what I think of this "guilty until proven innocent" thing you have going with RGU. Do you have reason to believe he is cult?

RGU ignored my earlier attempt to get him to claim, so I voted him to get his attention. Considering that Tric and Kit had claimed their night actions, and he hadn't, its entirely possible he's cult trying to deflect attention away from him. Its unlikely

Persus which of the wagons do you favour?

I think I've made it abundantly clear that I think the whole Tric/Kit cult scenario is a wild goose chase that requires them to be masters of fakeclaiming one day before they needed to. The two of them talking to each other trying to figure out what happened N1 at the start of D2 doesn't seem like an elaborate ruse to disguise the fact that they're cult. And while they are currently both voting DA, the alternative seems to be one of them being lynched, and they've been at loggerheads with each other and hector13 fairly consistently the rest of the time. Sure none of them were voting each other at the end of D2, but that's not enough evidence for me. And if they both are Cult, they can't do anything during the night anyways.

I'm more interested in why my Myopic Peeping Tom failed N1 and worked N2. Because right now the only person who claimed targeting me N1 is DA. I also targeted Kit N1 with a night action, so either Kit and Tric are both telling the truth, both lying, or I got blocked. So I'd be much happier with a DA or Superdorf lynch than either Kit or Tric.

[notquitethere]

I'm more interested in why my Myopic Peeping Tom failed N1 and worked N2. Because right now the only person who claimed targeting me N1 is DA. I also targeted Kit N1 with a night action, so either Kit and Tric are both telling the truth, both lying, or I got blocked. So I'd be much happier with a DA or Superdorf lynch than either Kit or Tric.

What results did you get N2 for it?

[Persus13]

The target went nowhere. So far there's three people who have claimed doing that N2.

[TricMagic]

The target went nowhere. So far there's three people who have claimed doing that N2.

Myopic Peeping Tom (town; super-rare; 4+ players): Each night, you will learn who another player targeted with their night action. It is the same player each night, but you don't know who. Actions: (auto)track

That kinda fits with Kit's own claims at least.

[Superdorf]

So Deus, you mentioned earlier that you'd currently kill RGU over me-- do you have a case on him? If so, I'm curious to hear it.

[randomgenericusername]

I'm more interested in why my Myopic Peeping Tom failed N1 and worked N2. Because right now the only person who claimed targeting me N1 is DA. I also targeted Kit N1 with a night action, so either Kit and Tric are both telling the truth, both lying, or I got blocked. So I'd be much happier with a DA or Superdorf lynch than either Kit or Tric.

Hold on, doesn't that confirm that they're both cultists? The only way the couldn't be part of the cult would be if KitRougard had the secret green goo role. If you really did target Kit during N1 and didn't become a green goo, then that means both KitRougard and TricMagic did visit hector13 and lie about what happened during that night.

[Deus Asmoth]

I want to bring up some reasons why lynching me is actually a bad idea. Of course, all of these assume that I'm actually right about my reads, so they may not have much impact.

My assumptions:
1. There are currently 2 cult and at least 1 scum left in the game with the remainder being town. I've been using 1 scum for my scenarios since having two left in the game puts the town in an unwinnable situation as far as I can tell.
2. The scum player has a kill ability. My reason for thinking this is that I gained access to a kill last night. If someone used an ability to give me that kill, I should have also gained access to the ability that granted me the kill. No one has claimed that they used the kill, meaning that person is most likely scum or anti-town.

These are the scenarios I worked through. If someone wants to point out why they don't work (aside from "lol because you're scum") I'd be glad to hear it. I haven't taken any other player's abilities into consideration because I haven't seen anyone claim an ability that impacts on the results.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

-The ideal would be lynching scum, leaving town with a clear road to victory.

-Going for scum and mislynching leaves 2 cult, 1 scum and 3 town going into the night.
-- If scum kills town and I kill scum, we have 2 cult and 2 town the next day. Deadlock.
-- If scum kills town and I don't kill, we have 2 cult, 1 scum and 2 town the next day. Scum plays kingmaker.
-- If scum doesn't kill and I don't kill, we have 2 cult, 1 scum and 3 town the next day. Cult and scum can still tie the lynch vote. Since not doing so loses both teams the game they have no reason not to.

-Not lynching leaves 2 cult, 1 scum and 4 town going into the night.
-- If scum kills town and I kill scum, we have 2 cult and 3 town the next day. Town wins.
-- If scum kills town and I kill town, we have 2 cult, 1 scum and 2 town the next day. Scum plays kingmaker.
-- If scum kills town and I don't kill, we have 2 cult, 1 scum and 3 town the next day. Cult and scum can tie the lynch vote.
-- If scum doesn't kill and I don't kill, we all live happily ever after I guess.

-Lynching cult leaves 1 cult, 1 scum and 4 town going into the night.
-- If scum kills town and I kill town, we have 1 cult, 1 scum and 2 town the next day. Cult and scum can tie the lynch vote.
-- If scum kills town and I kill scum, town wins.
-- If scum kills town and I don't kill, we have 1 cult, 1 scum and 3 town the next day.
--- From this, lynching the final cult member leaves 1 scum and 3 town that night.
---- If scum kills town and I kill scum, town wins.
---- If scum kills town and I don't kill, we have 1 scum and 2 town the next day and can lynch the final scum.
---- If scum kills town and I kill town, we have 1 scum and 1 town the next day. Lynch is tied, but I'm immune to kills so I can kill scum the following night and town wins.

Lynching me today effectively puts the scum player in a kingmaker position. They can kill a town player and then either leave town and cult deadlocked or decide who wins between town and cult.

Secondly, a lot of my actions today just don't make sense for mafia-me to do. If I were scum then I'd have no reason to reveal that I was the one who investigated Superdorf, or that I gained a kill last night. Even if I had had the kill all along as scum I'd have no reason to reveal that I had it today, and also no reason not to use it on previous nights. And sure, WIFOM and all, but how does revealing this information help mafia-me more than just saying nothing would?

And if you happen to be a cultist? Or Mafia for that matter, as gaining one of every ability to target you would be way too useful to choose who to kill.

I already have a kill. What ability do you think would be more useful for me if I wanted to kill people?

So Deus, you mentioned earlier that you'd currently kill RGU over me-- do you have a case on him? If so, I'm curious to hear it.

It's primarily the same case I had during D2, but there's an additional reason behind it too. If I kill you I lose access to my kill, so you have to be the last person that I use a kill on if that's the way we end up doing it.

[Persus13]

I'm more interested in why my Myopic Peeping Tom failed N1 and worked N2. Because right now the only person who claimed targeting me N1 is DA. I also targeted Kit N1 with a night action, so either Kit and Tric are both telling the truth, both lying, or I got blocked. So I'd be much happier with a DA or Superdorf lynch than either Kit or Tric.

Hold on, doesn't that confirm that they're both cultists? The only way the couldn't be part of the cult would be if KitRougard had the secret green goo role. If you really did target Kit during N1 and didn't become a green goo, then that means both KitRougard and TricMagic did visit hector13 and lie about what happened during that night.

Or I targeted Kit and didn't become a Green Goo because Tric used his Mimic ability on Kit which meant I targeted Tric instead. Y'know, like they claimed yesterday to have done. Or I just got blocked.

[TricMagic]

Dues, not Mafia can turn out to have no kills at all in this game on Role Generation. And Town can have kills. While having a Kill ability doesn't make you mafia, claiming you suddenly gained it doesn't clear you as town either.